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NL50 is Going to Kill Me - Live Poker Forums

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NL50 is Going to Kill Me

The all important concept of not going broke.

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NL50 is Going to Kill Me

Postby JJSCOTT2 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 2:20 pm

I've been playing NL50 for 15 days now and while I was killing the NL25 game I absolutely am getting destroyed at NL50, I've seen some tough losing streaks in the past couple years but 11,000 hands seems a little bit excessive. I have posted some of my PT info below and everything seems normal to me, I don't know where else to look. AK(s), AQ(s), AJ(s) are all in the positive, SC's are breaking even which is kind of bad I guess because I would like them to be making some money but I don't know if that alone could account for how bad I'm doing. Where should I look next?!?!

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Postby bobby » Tue Nov 01, 2005 4:42 pm

JJ
I really don't know what to say!! Overall, the numbers look VERY similar to mine and I was crushing the 50 NL (albeit only 5K hands or so...) Some of the others are way more expert at PT numbers than I, maybe they will have more input. One thing I was wondering about however...Are properly bankrolled for the 50's? If you are not, perhaps you are playing the marginal hands less than optimumly---Just an idea...When I moved up I was OVER bankrolled by a large amount, and it makes those tough decisions a hell of a lot easier...
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 4:45 pm

The only things that jump out at me are:

WSF% is only 28.12%. Thats very low. You need to bet some flops when you are last to act and it has been checked to you whether you have anything or not.

Yont raise preflop very often and when you do, you dont make continuation bets often enough. Your "bet after raising preflop" and "no action after raising preflop" should be about 90% or higher. Your raising preflop and then checking too often. Maybe youre not raising a high enough amount and youre getting too many callers?
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Postby k3nt » Tue Nov 01, 2005 5:14 pm

A total of $192 down is just 4 buy-ins. I have to admit though being down at all after that many hands sucks, let alone that much.

I would look at the biggest losing hands you have had. How did they go? What happened?

At NL, your stats can look terrific and you can still lose if you're losing more than half of your huge pots. Check it out and find out if that's happening, and if so whether it's due to suckouts by them or bad play by you.
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 5:48 pm

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Postby kennyg » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:27 pm

1-2 callers is worth a continuation bet. over that no.
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:01 am

My 5 biggest losing hands to date. Seems like a pretty even mix of horrendous play and horrendous beats; but in all fairness to myself, I don't think its reasonable to expect that I play perfectly all the time, it's not like I never made a mistake at NL25.

Hand 1:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

UTG ($49.50)
UTG+1 ($85.45)
UTG+2 ($89.85)
Hero ($45.55)
MP2 ($48.70)
MP3 ($50.20)
CO ($46.60)
Button ($55.05)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($50.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [Js], [Ts]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 3 folds, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) [9d], [Qs], [2s] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $5, Hero calls $43.55 (All-In), Button folds, UTG+2 calls $38.55.

Turn: ($93.85) [5h] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($93.85) [2d] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $93.85

Results in white below:
UTG+2 has Qc As (two pair, queens and twos).
Hero has Js Ts (one pair, twos).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $93.85.


Hand 2:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

SB ($50.40)
BB ($52.70)
UTG ($104.50)
UTG+1 ($55.50)
UTG+2 ($82.72)
MP1 ($33.30)
Hero ($44.75)
MP3 ($51.60)
CO ($38.13)
Button ($59.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with [Jc], [Tc]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 3 folds, SB (poster) calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50) [Th], [3h], [Js] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $4, Hero calls $42.75 (All-In), SB folds, UTG+1 calls $38.75.

Turn: ($92) [Ad] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($92) [Kc] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $92

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Qh Qd (straight, ace high).
Hero has Jc Tc (two pair, jacks and tens).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $92.


Hand 3:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP1 ($45.50)
MP2 ($5.50)
MP3 ($61.60)
CO ($103.76)
Button ($52.25)
SB ($11.50)
BB ($49.50)
UTG ($54.70)
Hero ($50)
UTG+2 ($81.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with [8d], [8h]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.50) [8s], [5h], [4h] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, MP3 folds, CO calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $2.

Turn: ($8.50) [Js] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, BB calls $6.

River: ($26.50) [6d] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, CO raises to $50, BB folds, Hero calls $16.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $118

Results in white below:
Hero has 8d 8h (three of a kind, eights).
CO has 7s 9h (a straight, five to nine).
Outcome: CO wins $63.25. Hero wins $54.75.


Hand 4:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

MP2 ($82.82)
Hero ($46.10)
CO ($121.97)
Button ($35.23)
SB ($49.65)
BB ($29.76)
UTG ($34.13)
UTG+1 ($50)
UTG+2 ($76.60)
MP1 ($124.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with [8h], [8d]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, UTG+2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.5, UTG+1 calls $2.50, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, CO folds, Button calls $2.50.

Flop: ($13.25) [Tc], [6h], [8s] (4 players)
BB bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6, Hero calls $6, Button folds.

Turn: ($31.25) [7s] (3 players)
BB calls $20.76 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $41 (All-In), Hero calls $37.10 (All-In).

River: ($130.11) [5h] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $130.11

Results in white below:
BB has Qs Qd (one pair, queens).
UTG+1 has Ts 9s (straight, ten high).
Hero has 8h 8d (three of a kind, eights).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $130.11.


Hand 5:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

Button ($48.95)
SB ($43.85)
BB ($58.30)
UTG ($59.75)
UTG+1 ($50.90)
UTG+2 ($49.25)
MP1 ($63.25)
MP2 ($53.10)
MP3 ($47.50)
Hero ($50.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Ac], [Ah]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, Button calls $2.50, SB (poster) calls $2.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) [4h], [2c], [3h] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $10, Button raises to $20, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $38 (All-In), Button calls $26.45 (All-In).

Turn: ($104.95) [6d] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($104.95) [9c] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $104.95

Results in white below:
Hero has Ac Ah (one pair, aces).
Button has 4d 4s (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Button wins $103.40. Hero wins $1.55.




There's some more amusing stuff in there like when I lost the stack all-in on the flop with the flopped nut flush against the gut shot straight flush draw (posted that one in anything goes a while ago). And the 1 stack I lost with AK but I knew I messed that one up as soon as I clicked all in and almost kicked my own ass for that move, so I don't think that needs be posted here. I think out of all of these hand 4 is the only one where I was really out of my mind, but I had a read on that guy, turns out my read was wrong, such is life.
Last edited by JJSCOTT2 on Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby low dough » Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:28 am

Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.
Steven Wright

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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:18 am

Woiw, I love the converter more and more every day, I even usually check to make sure it converted right and yet somehow it still slipped by, I will edit it. Thanks.
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Postby k3nt » Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:24 pm

How often do you make huge overbets on the flop? You did it with a draw in hand 1 and two pair in hand 2. That's going to increase your variance a whole lot, especially since people so rarely fold.

I think that at $50 NL, making continuation bets of say 1/2 to 2/3 pot with 2-3 callers is going to be a better bet for you, long term, than pushing all-in on the flop with just a draw. Of course, if you can get them to call your all-in on the flop when you have 2 pair, you're going to make a ton.

Hand #3: wtf are you thinking betting full pot on the river when the 4-straight just got there? Ick. Bet more on the flop and turn, way less on the river.

Hand #4: That flop is way too coordinated and scary to flat call the flop. Get the money in there NOW.

Hand #5: meh, not sure what to do. Not a bad push I guess with the draw to go with it.
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:55 pm

I occasionally make huge overbets, it's not really a habit or anything.

Hand 1: Every time I had seen this guy raise $2 preflop he had AT-AK, I figured I had A LOT of fold equity unless he had AQ in which case I still had SOME fold equity and was a 60/40 favorite to win at that. I really like this push, it sucks that it didn't work out, but most of the time it would.

Hand 2: I had this guy right where I wanted him, I knew he had an overpair from the second he put in the preflop raise which is precisely why I called with JTs in the first place, I know if I hit, I stack him. Someone with a 0.8% PFR over 1300 hands is pretty much gonna have AA/KK when they raise. Once the flop hit, I knew I could just push it in and he would call, I also knew that he was gonna have something like a 25% chance to end up with the best hand by the river when he called. Am I willing to take that shot? Yep.

Hand 3: Makes me cry. Im embarassed to say it but I was looking for him to be on the flush draw all the way and totall missed the 6 completing the monster inside straight draw. At this river I should have evaluated and thought to myself I can't get any bet called by a hand that doesn't beat me.

Hand 4: I'm still crying, a little more this time. How I even did this is beyond me. I know these players, all I was thinking was there's no way this guy has a hand with a 9 in it unless he's got pocket 9's. Well, I was pretty much wrong all around and I should have pushed the flop.

Hand 5: I knew I was screwed the second this guy min-raised me, I'm not sure why, but usually when I get min-raised I have a feeling one way or another, sometimes it's the set, sometime's its the weak information/blocking attempt. Usually I'm right. This time, I was like, oh, he's got a set, ok let me go ahead and push all in with 6 outs to win. I blame myself here. ]


Summary: I'm happy with my play on Hands 1 & 2, extremely unhappy on 3, 4 & 5.
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Postby bobby » Thu Nov 03, 2005 11:13 pm

JJ
I mis spoke in my early post, as I did not look closely enough at some important numbers---
This is FWIW as i am still learning as well...
the main differences are aggression---

my PFR---5.2
1st action after PFR I am at 57%

these are my numbers-just use them as comparison!! Tons of guys here at BTP are better than me....
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Postby gdaviet » Tue Nov 08, 2005 7:27 am

From your stats and hand postings, I would wrap the majority of your losses up with this:

You are calling to often with the worst hand in huge pots.

Ok, that sounds simple enough. Look at your W$@SD breakout between calling and betting / raising, especially on the turn. You should be winning a larger percentage of the showdowns where you are calling. Winning 50% isn't good enough with calling, because you are more likely to win small pots and lose big pots when you are just calling.

Some hands you just can't consistently fold (like sets, top two pair, etc), but what you should concentrate on is controlling the size of the pot better. The hands you posted show you getting involved in huge pots with a second best hand. If you have a hand that can win by calling, but is almost always bad against a re-raise (like sets on coordinated boards), then don't put yourself in a bad spot. Check, hope for a small bet, and call. Don't worry about someone bluffing a huge bet into you. You are probably putting the money in anyway if you bet, and this way you have a chance to win their stack against a bluff.

There are more situations in no-limit than there in limit where checking and calling the river is better than betting and calling the river.

You don't want to play a huge pot with a marginal hand, so do your best control the pot size in those situations (usually by checking). Protect your hands with reasonable bets before the river. It's too late to make 2/3 pot sized bets on the river ... there's nothing left to protect against.

I wouldn't worry so much about how often your making continuation bets, or how much dead money you're leaving on the table. If you hands are representative, work on losing fewer big pots. And the best way to do that is to work on controlling the size of the pot.
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Postby excession » Tue Nov 08, 2005 11:48 am

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