I don't actually need to realize a $50 profit in order to make this call though - that's just what I expect is a minimum for the pot to become. In order for it to be +EV (assuming I win every time I make my set), I'd only need the portion of the pot that I don't contribute to be 7.5* my initial call right? Or in this case, $30. If that's the case, with an expected $9 preflop, and only one caller from flop to the river (the BB), the minimum for this portion of the pot is $9+$2+$4+$4 ($19). Given what I know of my friend, he will push it on the flop most of the time, so that's an extra $2 from him - and it would also give me a raise possibility - so an extra $2 from the BB. $23.
Of course, the more I do the math here, the more and more marginal it looks - and maybe I am wrong and that it is -EV.
I guess there might be a misunderstanding on my part about implied odds as well. For me, I will make my set 1 out of 8.5 times. So, for a $4 investment, I need the resultant pot to be 7.5 times my investment to make it a break even play. Originally, I thought that the resultant pot could include later investments (which is plainly wrong). However, the part I'm not sure about is do I include later investments as part of the 7.5 multiplier situation. Or to be more succinct:
$4 investment requires ending pot minus additional investments of $30
$4 investment requires ending pot of 7.5 * (4+2+4+4) or $95Statistics: Posted by starstealer — Tue Apr 26, 2005 11:02 am
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