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Live Poker Forum - Online Poker Forums & Hand Analysis Poker Forum 2005-08-17T16:51:44-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/feed.php?f=12&t=5709&mode 2005-08-17T16:51:44-06:00 2005-08-17T16:51:44-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=5709&p=39866#p39866 <![CDATA[Not sticking to my reads... AGAIN]]>
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with [Ah], [Kd]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 3-bets, 5 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) [Kh], [6c], [Qc] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) [3h] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.75 BB) [Qs] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, MP1 caps, BB calls.

Final Pot: 24.75 BB

The villain (MP1) here almost never raised, and now instant raises. That tells me KK or AA (even though I have the A and K, I wouldn't even put him on QQ, that's how strong my read was). He probably wouldn't instant raise AK because "it's just a drawing hand", but he would call a raise with it. I knew he would never raise KQ. And the other caller is extremely loose and passive - he'd call down with bottom pair or middle pair to the river.

I wish I stuck to my read and didn't bet this flop. I could have just check-called, but instead not only do I raise, but I re-raise! After he called I started thinking "maybe I'm wrong... maybe we both have AK". I think that was more wishful thinking than anything. Also, me being stubborn about losing this pot with AK.

Here's how I think I should have played it given such a strong read. Check-call the flop. With no straight draw on the turn, fold. Or maybe check-call since it was a large pot. On the river, the passive caller suddenly wakes up and bets with the Qs paired up. Pretty obvious conclusion... I read him right... but it was a huge pot and I had TPTK, so I call. After it's raised and re-raised I know the conclusion.

Villain has KK for a full house. BB has some random Q.

I used to fold in these large pots when my reads were this strong. But now I justify it with "it was a large pot... I cannot fold when I have a strong hand". I think I need to revamp my thinking there.

Actually... now I think here's how I should have played it. Bet the flop, let the PF raiser re-raise on the off-chance he also has AK. I want this to make sure if we are splitting that the loose BB here doesn't outdraw us. On the turn I would check-call given the likely holding of MP1. On the river I would fold to the BB suddenly waking up with a bet. It completely fits his usual play - calling to the river with middle pair. And then MP1 re-raises saying "I have the full house!".

Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:51 pm


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