To recap:
Piers is CO with
![[Kc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kc.gif "The King of Clubs")
![[8h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8h.gif "The Eight of Hearts")
You were calling $5 to win $22, so your 4.4-to-1 is correct. We know well that almost no hand in poker is a 4.4-to-1 underdog to another, and that especially applies heads up.
You were a 76-24 underdog pre-flop (3.16-to-1), so your call was correct, if you didn't think you were up against KK or AA--it's almost funny that you're less of a dog to AA than KK. To me, an EP raise means usually AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQs. You're as little as a 65-35 dog to AQo, or as much as a 10-1 dog to KK.
Flop:
![[3h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3h.gif "The Three of Hearts")
![[5c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5c.gif "The Five of Clubs")
![[Tc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
At this point, you are a 7.85-to-1 underdog. He bets (correctly with overcards), and you call. You were getting 6.4-to-1 to call, so it's a gutsy call.
This is where Piers HAS to trust his read. He felt the flop missed his opponent, and he was right.
Turn:
![[8s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
Suddenly, Piers is an overwhelming favorite (13.7-to-1), and his opponent is down to 3 outs (the remaining aces in the deck). You have to know that you're the favorite here, and that any kind of raise could likely chase this guy out. You just call.
River:
![[Td]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
What are you behind here? You're only behind to a set (not raising from EP with 33, 55, or 88,), an overpair (99-AA), or a Broadway hand like AT. Nothing else makes sense for a raise from EP.
Well played hand--gutsy, but well played. I'd have probably dumped it on the flop, but that's why you're a winning 5/10 player, and I'm busy slumming at 3/6! Nice job, not to mention a great example of overplaying AK. Again, it's all about the read.
Statistics: Posted by Tiburon — Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:22 pm
]]>
Statistics: Posted by piersmajestyk — Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:30 am
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
In my opinion the bet on the river is -EV but a check call could very well induce a bluff that I can pick off for an extra bet.
Statistics: Posted by piersmajestyk — Sun Aug 21, 2005 5:22 am
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
Sometimes it is better to go ahead and raise or CR the flop on a bluff than wait on the turn but with the above flop having 2 clubs on it he could well look upon that as a raise for a free card and he may well have 3 bet me there with just AK.
Statistics: Posted by piersmajestyk — Sat Aug 20, 2005 8:08 pm
]]>
My only quibble with it... you are assuming since overcards are more likely to be dealt than overpairs they must have overcards here. Sure it might work sometimes, because it is true overcards occur more than overpairs. But this justifies calling down with bottom pair everytime unless Q-A appears on the flop.
Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Sat Aug 20, 2005 7:28 pm
]]>
***** Hand History for Game 2566390634 *****
$5/$10 Texas Hold'em - Saturday, August 20, 09:07:37 EDT 2005
Table Galaxy (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: playsLKAgirl ( $401.50 )
Seat 2: Stick203 ( $223.50 )
Seat 3: jimfd3 ( $252 )
Seat 4: handsfree4u ( $183.50 )
Seat 5: Switzerland ( $229 )
Seat 6: fj555 ( $136 )
Seat 7: EDSWEF ( $197.50 )
Seat 9: shrader333 ( $364.75 )
Seat 10: AXE705 ( $362.75 )
Seat 8: Lucia_Cortez ( $250 )
AXE705 posts small blind [$2].
playsLKAgirl posts big blind [$5].
Lucia_Cortez posts big blind [$5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lucia_Cortez [ 8h Kc ]
Stick203 folds.
jimfd3 raises [$10].
handsfree4u folds.
Switzerland folds.
fj555 folds.
EDSWEF folds.
Lucia_Cortez calls [$5].
shrader333 folds.
AXE705 folds.
playsLKAgirl folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, 5c, Tc ]
jimfd3 bets [$5].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$5].
Ok so here is where the play begins. I don't figure that flop connected with him. Perhaps he has a Big Pair but I am willing to gamble on that. With my call I am planning on raising the turn barring an A or an 8, a Turn Delayed Bluff. This play works wonders most of the time because most folks when they attempt a bluff won't pull the trigger for 2 BB and unless the original better has a very strong hand they are going to have a very tough time calling that raise. [size=18]This is not a play to be used haphazardly against multiple opponents or questionable boards that very well could have connected with your opponent.[/size] You are risking 2 BB here in order to win 4.5 BB so you don't have to be successful all the time and if done in the right circumstances you stand to win much more often than 50% of the time.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
Well I paired up so instead of pulling the Turn Bluff Raise I choose rather to call. I do this because now if I raise and he doesn't have anything I will lose a potential river bet if he folds and also I can play it safer now and not open myself up to a 3 bet if he indeed does have me beat. Another reason is that my K kicker is likely a bad card for him if that card should roll off on the river.
jimfd3 bets [$10].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$10].
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
Not a bad card I think that falls here.
jimfd3 bets [$10].
Lucia_Cortez calls [$10].
jimfd3 shows [ Kd, Ac ] a pair of tens.
Lucia_Cortez shows [ 8h, Kc ] two pairs, tens and eights.
Lucia_Cortez wins $74 from the main pot with two pairs, tens and eights.
shrader333 has left the table.
Begin rant, "nice call, etc." Well what he didn't take into account with my ragged flop call was that he was about to be raised on the turn and would have had a hard time calling that bet, although with the way that alot of players are they are willing to go to the bitter end with AK unimproved and with his bet on the river perhaps he would not have folded. His river bet really stinks because he either has the best hand and won't get called or I will call with any pair with the pot size and given that I have already called both the flop and turn. It only has a - Expectation.
Statistics: Posted by piersmajestyk — Sat Aug 20, 2005 6:00 pm
]]>