Pre-Flop:
You (SB):
Villain: (you don't mention his position, but I assume MP)
Pre-Flop, you're a 2-to-1 underdog to him, but like I said, you're getting enormous odds (11-to-1) with 7 to the flop, so why not?
Flop:
You're still about a 2-to-1 dog to him, but with 4 outs to the nuts, it's not the worst call you could make. You're getting 8.75-to-1 to call, with fairly high implied odds waiting for you. You're 10.75-to-1 to make your gutshot on the turn, and 5.07-to-1 to make it by the river. Ok.
Turn:
Yahtzee. Herein lies the problem. You've made the nut straight, but it's vulnerable now that there is a flush draw on the board. You're a solid 3-to-1 favorite now, but he still has 11 outs to the absolute nuts, so can he really lay this down? I don't understand his re-raise here though, unless he thought you were bluffing. You check, he bets, you raise, he re-raises, you cap. Very well played. Only thing is that you have to be aware that a lesser player will chase a flush. The fact that he had a gutter to a straight only incited him to chase it more. For him, he sees that even if you MAKE your straight (which you did), his 11 outs are good enough, and he has a draw not only to a better straight, but also to the absolute nuts, assuming you don't have trips of some sort (with a redraw to the boat).
Here's my assumption. He knew you had the straight, but had to see the last card with a pot that was quickly escalating. He took a shot at one of his 11 outs that he KNEW would beat you. His last call gave him 13.5-to-1, well within range of a solid call, especially given the 3.18-to-1 odds he had to make his hand. He bet to try and win the pot. You raised--he figured you for a bluff, so he 3-bet it. When you capped, he knew you had the straight, but couldn't lay down a shot a $50 for only $4 more. He wasn't going to go away with that many outs. Any J or any spade gave him the nuts. The gave him the stone cold mortal nuts, but any of the cards would make his hand good.
River:
He hit one of his outs--nothing you can do. You played it right, he took a chance and won. Now if he played AKo, THAT's bad.Statistics: Posted by Tiburon — Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:34 pm
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