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Live Poker Forum - Online Poker Forums & Hand Analysis Poker Forum 2005-10-29T21:04:22-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/feed.php?f=12&t=7875&mode 2005-10-29T21:04:22-06:00 2005-10-29T21:04:22-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59827#p59827 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Xaston — Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:04 pm

]]> 2005-10-29T13:57:46-06:00 2005-10-29T13:57:46-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59752#p59752 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:57 pm

]]> 2005-10-29T13:38:50-06:00 2005-10-29T13:38:50-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59748#p59748 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:38 pm

]]> 2005-10-29T08:01:58-06:00 2005-10-29T08:01:58-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59662#p59662 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]>
If you hold the weak-medium hand, you have to hold the losing hand with the following frequency or more for a fold to be right:

4bb pot = 80%
5bb pot = 83%
6bb pot = 86%

As MK said, for certain TAG or weak players, it might not be that difficult to put them on a hand with this degree of consistency. I think this is often especially true if they raise on the river.

The problem with this plan is that even you only fold 50% of the time this situation arises, your fold-to-river-bet stats are going to increase rapidly. I think this is where it gets interesting.

If you are the other player and you're debating on whether to bet or not, one quick helper in the decision making is to peek at the fold-to-river-bet stat. If this number is 20% or higher, one should almost always bet out on the river -- even with missed draws. Furthermore, if the opponent is not representing strength, then this target number could probably even be closer to 15% (assuming that the opponent usually has a weakish holding that he is willing to fold to pressure).

Maybe I'm not thinking about this fold-to-river-bet stat correctly. It seems like most of the people's stats at the .5/1 level on Party are in the 30%-60% range (chasing lots of missed draws or overcards?). I would really welcome some enlightening commentary on this topic.

Anyway, if they can do this kind of thinking, then maybe they aren't pure TAG players and/or weak play -- seemingly a requirement for this play to be good.

Xas, do you have a link to that thread?

Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:01 am

]]> 2005-10-29T07:28:48-06:00 2005-10-29T07:28:48-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59657#p59657 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:28 am

]]> 2005-10-28T23:28:00-06:00 2005-10-28T23:28:00-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59606#p59606 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by MecosKing — Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:28 pm

]]> 2005-10-28T22:49:40-06:00 2005-10-28T22:49:40-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59599#p59599 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by MecosKing — Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:49 pm

]]> 2005-10-28T21:23:19-06:00 2005-10-28T21:23:19-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59581#p59581 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:23 pm

]]> 2005-10-28T20:07:29-06:00 2005-10-28T20:07:29-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=59568#p59568 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]>
But, i definitely have seen this and i have been been doing it a bit- and it definitely isnt something that you should too often because it looks too weak, but i dont mind this move too much.

Its kindof opponent specific, like kuso so insightfully mentioned- against a real mizor (ie me apparently) you are going to have to payoff your marginal hands, but against most TAG type players, i think this play is fine.

Statistics: Posted by MecosKing — Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:07 pm

]]> 2005-10-23T22:57:24-06:00 2005-10-23T22:57:24-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=58236#p58236 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]>
anyway, i imagine someone like MK will make a mint off of an opponent playing this way.

betting drawing hands (e.g., OESD, flush, draw to a draw if you are MK, etc.) on the turn is not uncommon, and the drawing hand has no idea what you are playing -- maybe you're on a draw, too. as such, a missed draw is supposed to bet out on the river at least some of the time, right? maybe the other drawing hand missed, too, and you can get them to fold.

i would consider this to be an opponent-specific play. that is, someone who has demonstrated that they usually have at least a certain level of hand (e.g., TPTK or better) before they initiate aggression.

or better yet, i might mix this kind of play into a probability mix of possible plays -- for example, do it 25% of the time i encounter it.

Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:57 pm

]]> 2005-10-23T18:15:52-06:00 2005-10-23T18:15:52-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=58192#p58192 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by stickdude — Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:15 pm

]]> 2005-10-23T18:12:45-06:00 2005-10-23T18:12:45-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=58191#p58191 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Xaston — Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:12 pm

]]> 2005-10-23T18:10:36-06:00 2005-10-23T18:10:36-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=58190#p58190 <![CDATA[Re: Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by stickdude — Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:10 pm

]]> 2005-10-23T15:29:34-06:00 2005-10-23T15:29:34-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=7875&p=58165#p58165 <![CDATA[Interesting Concept.]]> Statistics: Posted by Xaston — Sun Oct 23, 2005 3:29 pm

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