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Live Poker Forum - Online Poker Forums & Hand Analysis Poker Forum 2005-10-29T23:31:47-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/feed.php?f=12&t=8094&mode 2005-10-29T23:31:47-06:00 2005-10-29T23:31:47-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=8094&p=59849#p59849 <![CDATA[SH - Probabilities with KK with A on the flop in 6-max]]>
I've got it backwards... I think the easy way to do it is to calculate the probability that one will not hit:

44/47 * 43/46 * 42/45 * 41/44 * 40/43 * 39/42 * 38/41 * 37/40 * 36/39 * 35/38=

.94 * .93. * 93 * .93 * .93 * .93 * .93 * .93 * .92 * .92 = about 48%

basically .93^10

for 5-handed = about 56%

for 4-handed = about 65%

for 10-handed - about 24%

So it's a crooked coinflip at a 6-handed table -- and that's assuming that opponents play any A.

geez, i was realy tired when i posted that last night.

Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:31 pm


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2005-10-29T16:50:23-06:00 2005-10-29T16:50:23-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=8094&p=59788#p59788 <![CDATA[SH - Probabilities with KK with A on the flop in 6-max]]> Statistics: Posted by redhouse — Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:50 pm


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2005-10-29T14:17:32-06:00 2005-10-29T14:17:32-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=8094&p=59755#p59755 <![CDATA[SH - Probabilities with KK with A on the flop in 6-max]]>
My math says that it's about 64% in a full 6-max table. My calculations:

(3/47)*10=0.638

That is, three cards (the aces) of 47 (the unknown cards after the flop) have ten chances to appear (two cards for each opponent).

Is this the correct way to calculate these numbers?

So for a 5-player table:
(3/47)*8=0.51

And 4-player:
(3/47)*6=0.383


So how does this inform strategy? I raise PF and usually like to bet out on the flop. If I get called, I often slow down. If I get raised, I'll usually muc it. I'm not sure if this is optimal play, though.

Comments?

Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:17 pm


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