Flush has a 44% chance of filling (incorrect, see above), you are assuming that the flush will then be good. Hero still has 3 outs that counterfit the flush (without getting into other players possible draws that beat the flush), so you are getting ahead of yourself in assuming that the flush equity is as high as it is. Odds of making the flush do not equal odds of winning the hand.
Cap 4th, I would lead 5th, as this guy has shown that he likes his hand and will raise you and 3 bet when he raises your 5th street bet.
More thoughts later.
-JusStatistics: Posted by Juskimo — Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:49 pm
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