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http://www.ultimatebet.com/about-ub/rng.html
http://www.partypoker.com/news/events/b ... wm=2000793
http://www.pokerstars.com/rng_audit.html
For others, just search Google for (e.g.) 'pokerroom rng'.
Statistics: Posted by tetsuo — Wed Dec 08, 2004 4:40 am
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How would a faulty random number generator produce bad beats? I can't see it. I can't even see how to rig a random number generator ON PURPOSE to produce bad beats. I mean, the random number generator just creates a random number, which is used to create the order in which the cards appear in the deck through a complex mathematical process. How would you even begin to go about making the random number generator produce bad beats?
Presumably, some decks produce predictable bad beats -- AA will lose to
![[Th]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Th.gif "The Ten of Hearts")
![[8h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8h.gif "The Eight of Hearts")
, because the turn and river cards are both hearts. But how can the random number generator know that the guy with is going to call the AA's big PF raise? I mean, ![[Ks]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ks.gif "The King of Spades")
[Ts] or ![[Jc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jc.gif "The Jack of Clubs")
[Jd] is more likely to call the all in -- but both of those hands would presumably lose because they don't have the hearts!So, to create bad beats, you would have to write a program that went something like this:
--if (starting hand = AA, KK, or QQ)
--then (read the cards of the hand that calls the AA, KK, or QQ)
-- and (produce on the flop/turn/river the cards that beat the AA, KK, or QQ given the hand that was read).
You could write a program like that, of course. But that ain't no random number generator -- that's having the fix in, in a big way. And it would be easily found by anybody who had access to the code producing the cards.
I just can't see it happening. I mean, these card sites are multi-million dollar assets. Why would you screw with that?
Now, the other possibility: Mad Genius is just on a run of bad luck.
Let's look at the odds of losing 5 hands in a row with QQ against the types of hand he mentions.
Let's say 2 of the hands were QQ vs QTo
2 of them were QQ vs Axo
And 1 was QQ vs JTs
Checking out www.twodimes.net
QQ vs QTo: QQ wins roughly 87% of the time
QQ vs A8o: QQ wins roughly 72% of the time
QQ vs JTs: QQ wins roughly 80% of the time
So to lose all of these, the chances are 13% * 13% * 28% * 28% * 20% = 0.0264%
This bad run will happen roughtly 2.64 times in ten thousand. Not often! But it's hardly impossible.
Put it this way: if you get QQ against bad hands 5,000 times, bad beat runs like this 5-in-a-row should happen, on average, about 1.3 times. OK, you haven't gotten QQ 5,000 times. But bad beats happen to other premium hands too: AA, KK, AK, etc.
If you add up all the times that you, your friends, contributors to this forum, and people on unitedpokerforum.com, combined, have seen premium hands over the past year -- well, how many times would you guess? Let's run some guesstimate numbers.
Say 100 regular poker players are talking to each other on these forums.
Say they play an average of 3 hours per day, double table, averaging 50 hands per hour. That's 300 hands per day, or 1500 hands per week (taking off two days per week).
So, 100 players are playing an average of 1500 hands per week each, 52 weeks a year. That's 7,800,000 hands per year. (All of these figures are just off the top of my head. Anybody got better guesses?)
Say 3% of those are premium hands -- 234,000. A bad run like Mad Genius' -- getting beat on 5 straight premium hands with crap hands like those -- will happen, on average, to one of us, about 61 times per year. (Apparently, this year, several of those 61 times are happening to Mad Genius!)
Maybe it won't happen quite that often, because we can hopefully get other people to fold their crap hands sometimes. And sometimes we won't be called with any crap hands in the first place. (Then we'll start complaining how we can't get any action on our premium hands!) On the other hand, sometimes people get called by more than one crap hand at a time, increasing the chances of getting busted by one of them.
Just some food for thought, for what it's worth.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:12 pm
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Figure out how bad your luck was. First, for each hand, figure out what the chances were of getting beaten on each hand. Then multiply together the odds of being beaten on each hand to get a total odds of being beaten on ALL those hands.
If that chance is better than 1 in 10 million (literally), then put it down to bad luck, not rigged sites. Remember, people beat worse odds than those to win the lottery. Things like this do happen. (Also remember, your run of bad luck was followed up by a winning hand or two -- and probably one or two winning hands on the other end, before your bad streak started, that you don't really remember.)
Also remember the basics of human psychology: when you're expecting something to happen, you will often start to see it happening. If we think George Bush is a gross incompetent, we'll expect to see his next politlcal move as incompetent. If we think Bill Clinton is a liar, we'll remember his lies more than anything else about him. And if we get a bad beat or three in a row on UB, we don't think anything of it -- but if it happens on Party, because other people have complained about Party, we might put the incident a little more firmly in our memory bank.
All just IMHO, and open to correction from people with more experience with these things.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:05 pm
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Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Fri Dec 03, 2004 3:18 pm
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Interestingly enough, I just had a horrible bad beat run on Party/Empire for two weeks. Still it didn't even break the surface of the crap I've gone through on Pokerstars.
Statistics: Posted by kennyg — Thu Dec 02, 2004 12:07 am
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