While you end up having success here, I think bottom set is a very tough hand to play. The real difficulty is that you just don't know what helps you except for another 9. I think that's the reason why the classic rule is top 2 or middle or top set. On top 2, you at least know that the board pairing one of your cards gives you a pretty strong hand, even though you're behind (like on this one) to bottom set.
For those reasons, if it were me, I'd probably lay it down on the flop, although I think playing it kind of defensively, as you did, isn't at all bad either.
One question I also have is raising the flop here. In theory, you are then up against AJ (9 instances), JJ (3 instances) and AA (3 instances). That means (again in theory) that 6 times you lose $6 and 9 times you win $3.
Or, an alternative view would be to say that it's just all-in on that flop vs. the range other sets and AJ. Even there, it's marginal, because AJ has 4 outs against you, whereas your 99 has only 1 against AA and JJ. So, you effectively lose always against JJ/AA but win only about 75% of the time against AJ.
I dunno, I think there are good reasons for not really wanting to go with bottom set in Omaha.
I suppose that yet another dimension is your low flush redraw against possible AA or JJ, which probably puts the EV against those same hands significantly higher.
I guess there are a lot of ways to play this hand (pushing hard on the flop, for example), but it's a difficult hand to play. That's why I think I would have just let it go on this board, although maybe that's too weak-tight...Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:38 pm
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