A few comments in advance: Some may wonder about my even playing this hand, but I feel like I have been underestimating the value of TT and hence thought I'd give it a try. Then the raise comes. Well, the raiser raises 20% of his hands on the small sample I've got. This was the first time I've seen him, so we're not talking about a very large amount of data, but it was clear to me that he's a very loose raiser and also likely to follow up with a strong CB. So, I was essentially already planning a check-raise if I liked the flop.
Anyhow, here's the hand:
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (9 handed)
MP1 ($251.25)
MP2 ($159.40)
MP3 ($219.75)
CO ($95.50)
Button ($67)
SB ($63.10)
BB ($272.70)
Hero ($276.25)
UTG+1 ($261.30)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9:diamond:, T:spade:, T:club:, 2:diamond:.
Hero calls $2, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $6, MP3 calls $6, 3 folds, BB calls $4, Hero calls $4.
Flop: ($25) 8:spade:, Q:spade:, J:diamond: (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $23.75, MP3 calls $23.75, BB calls $23.75, Hero raises to $142.5, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, BB calls $118.75.
Turn: ($357.50) 4:diamond: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $127.75 (All-In), BB calls $124.20 (All-In).
River: ($609.45) 5:spade: (2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: $609.45
Results in white below:
BB has As 9h Js 7d (flush, ace high).
Hero has 9d Ts Tc 2d (straight, queen high).
Outcome: BB wins $605.90. Hero wins $3.55.
I think this hand says quite a bit about this freeroll concern/laying down the nuts (which obviously no one had but me when the money went in).
I am not particularly fond of just flat calling on this flop, but what's unclear is whether it's not better to try and set it up so that full pot is more or less all-in on the turn. The problem that arises the way that I play it is that I no longer have sufficient stack depth to deny any semblance of odds.
The way I play it, he has to call $130 for a chance at $490, so he's getting about 4:1. In actuality, he has 8 outs with 40 unknown cards, so that's right at 4:1. Or exactly the same, from his perspective, with 9 outs and 44 unknown cards.
One alternative might be to mini-raise the flop. Not sure how the other players would respond, but it does give me more leverage on a blank turn and allows me to get away easily if the turn is a spade. I'll have to try an EV calculation on both of those.
Anyhow, I'm inclined to think that the pot-sized check-raise was not the best play here. Anyone agree or disagree?Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Mar 21, 2006 6:19 am
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