Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:28 pm
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the most likely hand i put him on was a high-oriented hand with an ace (like he had). as such, i'd be less worried about a 9 or T. a J or a K (likely holdings with a Q) are really the only cards that would give me serious thoughts about folding -- again depends on the suit. if it's a spade or diamond, then i think i probably fold.
all of this is factored into the 15-15-70 split that i mentioned before. i thought it was just as likely that he had something like QKxx (i.e., no Ace) as much as the boat.
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:40 am
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His calling if your PFR OOP would make me lean towards his having an A, so I'd be thinking that best case here I am going to split if he only has trips like I do. If I boat up on the river I figure an A is a split at best, and I guess you have to figure what the odds are that a 4 or 7 will get you top boat, not loser boat. There's also the chance that he has 55, maybe what, 15% of the time?
Does this math make sense? I'm sure I butchered the crap out of it since I haven't done one of these in a while.
40 to win 160 - 20% equity needed.
1 out (Q) to win 100% of the time - 1 x 1/40 = 2.5%
2 outs (A) to win maybe 20% of the time = .2 x 2/40 = 1%
6 outs (4,7) to win maybe 20% of the time - .2 x 6/40 = 3%
Split the other 40% of the time - .5 x 20% = 10%
Assuming he has no boat and 3 random cards that you don't have he'd have 9 outs to hit on the river - 20% of the time? .2 x 9/40 = 4.5% negative.
If I did this right, you have 16.5% positive equity minus 4.5% negative or 12% - not worth calling a high turn. That's not taking into account the flush cards that could win for him if he has 2 spades, but I'm offsetting that because a high heart on the turn would give you the same possible boost.
Statistics: Posted by JDLush — Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:08 am
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As for the flop, i don't see the point to waiting for the turn. you are committed if you call and i don't see him folding if he checks andyou bet your last 40 into a 120 pot. If you had more money, i think it matters. in this case, if you continue on the flop, nothing else matters.
Statistics: Posted by briachek — Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:40 am
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i still welcome comments, though.
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:30 am
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The Cast
SB - All of his chat just said "Heeeeee Haaaaaw". Over 80% VPIP and was a massive CS. Had built up a big stack, but it was rapidly dwindling. He ended up going busto.
BB - A little loose preflop (mid-30s over about 100 hands), but not too bad. His W$SD is about 65%, but that doesn't mean much with this few hands. He's a big winner over the small sample I have. Again, doesn't mean that much. Otherwise, seems pretty solid.
The Hand
Preflop - I frequently open raise with this kind of hand from MP or later. I figured that SB would call, my hand would be better than his, and I would have position. I wasn't that happy that button called, but I wasn't sad either.
Flop - Great flop for me. I bet, thinking that the SB calling station will donate. When I get CRed, I think for a few seconds. Villain seemed to be decent. This was the approximate range I had him on - 70% same trips w top kicker, 15% same trips worse kicker, 15% boat. I figured I had a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor low draw, so I'd call and see what he did. I wanted to have some chips to bet in case I was checked to on the turn.
Turn - Well, I don't like the spade, but I like the low. OK, there's a good chance I'm freerolling here, calling is fine.
River - Fvck
Analysis - I'm not sure what the bet on the flop accomplished. Great, I could get hands I beat to fold, but I get put to the test by hands that beat me or tie me. Where's the value? On the other hand, I REALLY wanted to get some money from the SB CS. But when that didn't pan out, was a fold called for when I was raised? I don't really know.
I wonder if I should continue to take these kinds of coinflips against decent players in the challenge. This one wasn't quite crooked enough in my favor and villain wasn't quite bad enough for me to be happy. Thoughts?
Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $97.72
UTG+1: $99
MP1: $77.53
MP2: $135.67
Hero: $101.62
CO: $202.15
Button: $178.85
SB: $170.39
BB: $187.06
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with
![[Ah]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
![[4h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4h.gif "The Four of Hearts")
![[Qd]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
![[7h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7h.gif "The Seven of Hearts")
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, CO folds, Button calls $3.5 (pot was $5), SB calls $3 (pot was $8.5), BB calls $2.5 (pot was $11.5).
Flop:
![[5d]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5d.gif "The Five of Diamonds")
![[Qh]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qh.gif "The Queen of Hearts")
![[Qs]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qs.gif "The Queen of Spades")
($14, 4 players)SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $13.3, 2 folds, BB raises to $53.2, Hero calls $39.9 (pot was $80.5).
Turn:
![[3s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3s.gif "The Three of Spades")
($120.4, 2 players)BB bets $117.4, Hero calls all-in $44.92.
Uncalled bets: $72.48 returned to BB.
River:
![[9s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9s.gif "The Nine of Spades")
($210.24, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $210.24)Results:
Final pot: $210.24
BB shows Ks Qc As 6h
Hero doesn't show Ah 4h Qd 7h
Flop
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1670305
pokenum -o8 ah 4h qd 7h - ks qc as 6h -- 5d qh qs
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs 5d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Qd Ah 7h 4h 176 221 239 360 168 36 0 0.509
As Ks Qc 6h 191 239 221 360 45 84 0 0.491
Turn
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1670307
pokenum -o8 ah 4h qd 7h - ks qc as 6h -- 5d qh qs 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qs 3s 5d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Qd Ah 7h 4h 6 9 12 19 16 3 0 0.519
As Ks Qc 6h 7 12 9 19 3 11 0 0.481
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:21 am
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