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I seem to suffer from some red mist like problem where when I'm in certain moods I'm convinced that everyone who bets is just trying to steal pots. "My" pots.
Obviously enough in the hand above I am betting that flop on the grounds that my opponents can't really call without a J. Even if they do call I have some outs that if I hit could be loads of fun.
If I make a move on the basis that they can't call without a Jack, then the opponent's raise is pretty obviously a Jack. Red mist time. Maybe he's bluffing
. Now at no point did I actually believe he was bluffing, it just kind of clouds my judgement long enough for the 15 seconds decision time to come up with some kind of Doyle Brunsonesque reason why I should stay in with my draw. And then theres the fact that AAQQds is probably the nicest looking hand I've seen in a long time and I even hit my flush draw.Swear then fold is undoubtedly the correct play here. So I proceed by wishfully thinking and put him on the Jack and decide I have outs. I don't think I need 13 outs here as the call will commit both our stacks so we're going to see 2 more cards. If my maths is right I'm committing $13.97 into a pot that will be $39.34 by the river. My 15 second reasoning doesn't get quite that far however, so at the time I was thinking "close enough".
What shocked me about this hand when I reviewed it in poker tracker is I actually got my money in OK. As expected, the other guy has a Jack (his hand is 6c Jd 4d 8h). I have 36.95% chance of winning from the flop. I only mention it because my instinct, before running the numbers was that my hand's chances would probably be slightly the wrong side of my equity rather than the other way round.
Anyway, as both of you mentioned, it's a fold. It turns out I have pot odds against his J but I have a little post-it stuck to my screen that says "They Don't Raise", so 3 Jacks is the worst hand he's going to have here. If he already has the full house, I'm toast.
I lucked this particular hand and won it but it's amazing how much effort I create for myself having to win back money I lose with stupid decisions like this one.
Thanks for the help.
Statistics: Posted by Chips->Middle — Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:32 am
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