Additionally, what's the big problem with him calling with two overcards? You're LOVING players who play like this, sure he might catch his 6 outer on the turn and you might lose some more $, but the other 4 times in 5 that a scare card doesnt hit, you can charge him AGAIN on the turn (I would probably pump it again on any card except Q, K and A). Why would you want to discourage him from making a big mistake to play this down with two overcards? The pot is not so big that you wouldn't mind DOUBLING the size of stack you win (pot in middle + one pot-sized call) for him to chase a hand he has got something like a 15% chance of hitting on the turn. If the turn brings any card 2-T then you've got to be happy with the situation (except very possibly a 9). Once he's called the bet, IF he calls the bet, you probably have to survive the river too, but that's kind of a moot point.
Upshot - it's hugely likely he has two overcards here. I would consider Q's and K's to be the two cards most likely to derail your hand, closely followed by A's. I wouldn't like to see any of those on the turn. BUT - did you consider that, with a whole table of limpers, a LOT of Q's, K's and A's have probably already hit the muck after your raise preflop? I would think if he has a hand like AQ, KQ etc that he's probably gunning for only 3 or 4 live outs, maximum, and perhaps drawing very thin indeed. The other possibility is that he has a low-ish pair. In this case, he'll presumably check-raise or raise later on with a set (and I doubt you can do much about that, unless he makes that play on the flop, then you can perhaps weigh up the amoount of money in the pot against the small possibility he's bluffing, and most likely lay it down). He'll presumably fold a low pair whether your raise is all-in or pot-sized.
So, the logic of the hand is simple, NL thinking - you want to put enough money into the pot so that he's making a big mistake by calling two overcards, but not SO MUCH money that the only thing he'll call you down with is a better hand. The chances of a major scare card hitting on the turn are almost certainly less than 1 in 5. He stands very little chance of holding a higher pair, and if he has a set it's up to you whether you pay off or believe a check-raise. Therefore, it seems clear that the correct play is to bet out the size of the pot.
Thoughts?
Monk
xxxx
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Fri Nov 19, 2004 7:57 am
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Regardless, if your only other option is pushing all in on the flop, its more +EV to let him smooth call on the flop, and then call him on the turn regardless of the overcard. Because in the 2nd case, you're getting all the money in more often when he's bluffing and you're ahead, as opposed to pushing and having him call you.
Statistics: Posted by palman — Fri Nov 19, 2004 7:43 am
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Statistics: Posted by Stapher — Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:25 pm
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Personally I would say this is a move to put on a loose playerwho might call with a lower pocket pair thought either way you are at the mercy of being trapped
Molina
Statistics: Posted by Molina — Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:19 pm
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Given the very high probability that you won't get called, I think this play is just fine. However, I'd definately not make it a habit of making hyper-aggressive plays like this too often as a lot of tricky players are capable of trapping in a hand like this.
Statistics: Posted by Mad Genius — Mon Nov 08, 2004 12:51 pm
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I understand that you're saying that it gives him more uncertainty and he might make a mistake in either direction, but I think you're dangerously close to falling into a mental trap -- thinking that if he has a bad hand he'll think it's a bluff and if he has a good hand he'll be scared of you.
I like the play itself though, and I do things similar to that all the time when I'm playing NL Omaha, because there are usually 3 players at the table that take money from me all day long. I give up on them -- when I have the nut hand on the turn or river, I invariably go all in and just wait for the poorer players to call me. I'll make the same move on semibluffs so that about 25% of the time I do this I have a drawing hand instead of a made one. In Omaha it makes no sense to do this with a second best kind of hand in my opinion because the "representing a bluff" aspect of the play is nearly toast.
Statistics: Posted by Nashvegas — Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:08 am
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Loose/agressive player: $90
Me: $400
LAP limps UTG. insane amount of other limpers. I'm on the button with
![[Td]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
![[Ts]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ts.gif "The Ten of Spades")
I raise to $12. everyone folds but the UTG LAP calls. I really respect his play. He's winning lots of pot with good, solid, and agressive play.
FLOP pot: $31
![[5s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5s.gif "The Five of Spades")
![[3d]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3d.gif "The Three of Diamonds")
![[9s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9s.gif "The Nine of Spades")
LAP checks to me. My tens are looking great with this flop. All under cards to my pocket 10s. I put the slider bar to a pot bet of $30 like usual....then I stop and think.
This LAP is a very good player. If he check-raises me all-in here, it would be another $50 for me to call. I would be completely unsure whether to call or fold. He could have something like
![[As]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
![[9h]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9h.gif "The Nine of Hearts")
or ![[8d]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8d.gif "The Eight of Diamonds")
![[8s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
. Or he could have me killed with a hand like ![[Js]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
![[Jh]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jh.gif "The Jack of Hearts")
or ![[9d]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9d.gif "The Nine of Diamonds")
. I don't enjoy being in those situations with good players.I also don't like the fact that if he calls here and paint hits on the turn, my cards become even less worthwhile. He may even lead out all-in when an over hits. I've seen him make those kinds of plays.
I put him all-in for the $80 he has left and put him to the test. I decide if he has something like the A9 he may call...thinking it's a bluff. If he has JJ...he can't be sure whether I have AA-QQ or not and might even fold.
Basically, I did not want to let myself get outplayed by this talented poker player. Any thoughts guys? I've never really make a huge overbets like that...but I still feel it was the best solution.
He folded and mucked by the way. He let his timer run down to 15 seconds. I did not ask him about his holdings.
All intelligent comments, postive or otherwise are appreicated!
Statistics: Posted by kennyg — Mon Nov 08, 2004 3:10 am
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