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Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:44 pm
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I've been playing pot odds quite exactly for a while now (on stuff like flush draws where the implied odds aren't great because of the obviousness).
So if a pot is $16 and I'm headsup drawing to the nuts but with no other outs or possibility of winning the pot (and notwithstanding the chance of a house being made by someone with a set) and it's $4 to me (4:1, giving me next card flush odds) should I call every time if this situation were to repeat itself into infinity?
This thread has got me thinking that making *near exact* pot odds are at best breakeven EV and to be avoided.
Statistics: Posted by tetsuo — Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:19 pm
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So is it safe to say that between you, you agree that
1) It's a thin EV call if the dude does have a flush, and if his hand had have been face up and I could've seen a flush, I would be better not calling
2) I am giving my opponents a bit too much respect when holding such a strong hand by putting them on 'my worst nightmare' hand. Weak?
I think I was put off-balance in the first place by having such an awful flop with so many others in the pot.
To rewind somewhat, should I have bet out with 6 behind me?
Statistics: Posted by tetsuo — Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:58 pm
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EDIT: Damn, I'm just a few minutes too slow in this thread.
Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:39 pm
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The second guy could have a flush but could just as easily have AT or 44 or be a complete moron and have
![[Kc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kc.gif "The King of Clubs")
[Ts]. Hes playing a short stack which makes me suspicious of him already.IF the second guy has a flush, and its a big if in my opinion, you are still risking $22 to win $37 which is close to correct odds.
Statistics: Posted by iceman5 — Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:34 pm
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Thanks for the advice, guys.
I think it was a 'thin one' and you're right - there are easier ways to bust people..
But this makes me think of another issue.
Say you are facing a single all-in headsup and you are getting _exactly_ the pot odds to call.
Do you call? I realize now it's probably a breakeven EV if there's no more money left to bet..
I hadn't for some reason considered this before. Quite a few times I have made this kind of call and now I'm thinking I should avoid it.
Maybe there should be some kind of minimum % EV margin to give yourself before making a call?
Statistics: Posted by tetsuo — Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:06 pm
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In EP with
![[Td]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
[Th]. I limp and so do another 5 or 6. Flop
![[4c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4c.gif "The Four of Clubs")
[Ac][Tc].Considering my position, that flop and the crowd behind me, I check.
The pot is about $3.50. I have everyone covered with $80.
It's checked around to the cutoff, who goes all in for $11 odd. The button calls and has another $11 remaining.
Now at this point I should have stopped to think.
I'm getting more than 2:1 on my money and I'm 2:1 to improve to a house by the showdown. If I call and he puts his last $11 in on the turn and I haven't improved, I'm still getting 4:1 pot odds with 10 outs (approx 22%).
It would have been +EV to call, no? Stupid mistake.
I fold as has/does everyone else. Turn and river
![[3c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
[3h]. Of course.![[Qc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qc.gif "The Queen of Clubs")
high flush wins. Don't know what the other dude had yet.<sound of tetsuo slapping his forehead repeatedly against the table>
..or is the draw too slim for most folks?
Statistics: Posted by tetsuo — Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:28 pm
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