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(1) Say I raise to $40 (more?) on the flop and she calls. The pot is now about $100. The turn comes 8 as before, and she bets out $X. (I have $150 left at this point)
How big does X have to be before you fold? If you call/raise, what's the plan for the river?
(2) Say I raise to to $40 (or whatever), and she moves in for the rest of my $150. This is a fold, right? With $200 stacks in Paradise, which is full of weak-tight-nut-peddling puddings (slightly overstated for dramatic effect)? Or am I just being weak tight myself?
In hand 1 ... having read everyone's responses, it seems to me that if I think there's a reasonable chance he plays a set like that it's a fold, otherwise it's a crying call with 1/3 chance of being ahead, and odds of 3.75:1?
Most people think he wouldn't play a set like that, kennyg thinks he would, it felt like a set to me at the time, now I'm not so sure...
Following excession's post, I determined from PT that his PFAR is 2.4 on the flop and 4.0 on the turn - which I guess is some evidence that he was drawing?
Kennyg, if the river blanked off, what would you have done?
[EDIT] Incidentally, if he did have the flush and straight draw, his cold call on the turn is OK I think (someone suggested it was poor) - he has 13-15 outs, so pot odds for the call, and either he'll be able to bluff me with 7 more (diamonds if he has hearts etc), if I'm tight; or he'll get paid off on many/all of his outs if I'm loose. The fact that there's either implied odds or bluffing equity seems to turn a = EV call into a positive one (and moving all in is -EV I think, provided I always call).Statistics: Posted by Smokin'Al — Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:33 pm
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