Assuming your strategy is to get your stack into the middle if you hit, and fold if you miss (is there any other way to play it with $25 behind and $6 in the middle before the flop?):
(1) Against QQ, JJ, TT (36 combos) you're -ve/= EV:
A/K flops, opponent misses set (30%): +$9
A/K flops, opponent has set (3%): -$25
You miss (67%): -3$
Total EV = -$0.10
(2) Against AA (6 combos) and KK (6 combos) you're obviously in bad shape if you hit the flop
I calculate the EV as -$7.8 for AA and -$2.5 for KK
(3) Against AK (18 combos) you're -ve EV since 78% of the time you have to fold, the rest of the time you chop
I calculate the EV as -$2.3
(4) Against AQ (24 combos) you're ahead, but not massively, since 75% of the time you have to fold (you both miss), and you only get their stack if an A flops and a Q doesn't hit.
I calculate the EV as +$0.42
For what it's worth, the small (10s) of AK hands with which I've cold called in my PT database have been -ve EV: what are other people's experiences?
Aside from folding (certainly not the worst move!), how about reraising to $8 and moving in on any flop (unless bet into, and possibly unless a Q but no K flops)? I think you can probably fold to a pre-flop reraise without losing too much EV.
Haven't done the sums, but unless your opponent is very aggressive, that ought to give you the advantage if your opponent has AK, JJ, or TT.
That said, I'm going to start folding this for the moment!Statistics: Posted by Smokin'Al — Thu Dec 30, 2004 10:02 am
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