bgistack: 6870
me: 4103
1st: 247.50
2nd: 148.50
3rd: 99.00
99 vs shorty: 72.1%
99 vs bigstack: 54.2%
bigstack vs shorty: 63.4%
Call and win (39.07%)
-----------------------------
shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 2767
me: 10733
$ = 0.8 x 247.50 + 0.2 x 148.50 = $227.70
$EV = 227.70 x 0.3907 = $88.96
Call and lose but bigstack wins (29.03%)
-----------------------------------------------------
shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 1st
me: 2nd
$ = $148.50
$EV = 148.50 x 0.2903 = $43.12
Call and lose but shortstack wins but I win sidepot (15.12%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
shorty: 7581
bigstack: 2767
me: 3152
$ = (3152/13500) x 495 = $115.57 [this is assuming we are all of equal skill, i assume my edge is slightly higher here but for arguements sake I will leave it at this]
$EV = 115.57 x 0.1512 = $17.47
Call and lose but shortstack wins and bigstack wins sidepot (13.69%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ = 99.00
$EV = 99.00 x 0.1369 = $13.55
Fold and bigstack wins (63.4%)
----------------------------------------
shorty: 3rd
bigstack: 10047
me: 3453
$ = (3453/13500) x 396 = $101.28
$EV = 101.28 x 0.634 = $64.21
Fold and shortstack wins (36.6%)
-------------------------------------------
shorty: 5704
bigstack: 4343
me: 3453
$ = (3453/13500) x $495.00 = $126.61
$EV = 126.61 x 0.366 = $46.33
That is assuming that the shortstack is pushing any 2 there, and the bigstacks range is 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+. If his range is slightly tighter, say 66+, ATs+, AJo+ then calling would be a little less profitable but still the right move.
So clearly calling is a much, much better option. In this case it's a difference of $50.Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:36 am
]]>