I get dealt A9o in the big blind, and the button (4200) min raises. SB folds, I call. The flop comes out K87 rainbow.
I've played with the button alot, and he's a solid player. He probably plays full time at the $100s. He tries to steal blinds from the button when it's 3-handed more than half of the time, so he is equally likely to have any hand Q6o or better. He is willing to call an all in here with bottom pair or fold, depending on his read of the situation. If I bet big and get called, I certainly do not have the best hand unless I improve.
With the pot at $1800, my stack at $3200, my opponent at $3400, and the short stack at $1600, what should I do here. Results at the bottom
I decided to take a shot at the pot, knowing that I had a 30% chance to improve to a pair of 9s or better by the river. I decided that, from his perspective, if I bet strong it looks probable that I have a king (as I defend my blind in this situation only about 50% of the time, he knows my hand has some merit even before I bet). So I think "how much would I bet if I had a king?" If I had a king, I would want to charge him heavily to draw, because an ace on the turn cripples me even if he doesn't have an ace (because I'm out of position). So I decide to bet out $1200 (2/3 pot size, over 1/3 of my stack). He flat called it <gulp>. I know I'm beat now unless I improve. The turn was a 3, which the button *knew* couldn't have helped my hand. I check/folded, and he showed JJ. If I had pushed on the turn, he would have put me on a king and quite possibly may have folded. I ended up getting outlasted by the short stack and placing 3rd.Statistics: Posted by Nashvegas — Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:06 am
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