About the case with the 3-spades on board and me with the K of spade... I knew he'd push all-in with almost ANY hand there. If he didn't I would have. I don't like playing the "what if he has that 1 card - As - which can beat me even if I hit" game. There was a 75% chance he didn't have that ace.
I must say, it's amazing how unlucky I've been with calling all-in on these favorable draws. I get beat by people calling all-in with a gutshot, but lose with an overcard + gutshot + flush draw. Then again, there are cases where I've caught the miracle card on the turn or river to save me. Just doesn't seem that way lately.
I'll be thinking more about this... whether to call all-ins with the right odds and a favorable chip lead or not.
Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:42 pm
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Watch out for non-nut draws... especially drawing with a singleton king on a one-suited flop. Lots of people would push all in with the ace in that situation.
I think that your calls are OK, but I do not think that they are the best play. If you're lucky enough to accumulate that many chips, remember that the blinds don't really pressure you at all anymore. You can wait for a great situation to make a move.
Statistics: Posted by Nashvegas — Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:40 am
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Hero (t7905)
SB (t2320)
BB (t2575)
UTG (t2200)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
![[Tc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
, ![[Ks]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ks.gif "The King of Spades")
. 1 fold, Hero raises to t450, SB raises to t750, 1 fold, Hero calls t300.
Flop: (t1650)
![[8s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
, ![[9s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9s.gif "The Nine of Spades")
, ![[Qs]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qs.gif "The Queen of Spades")
(2 players)SB bets t1570 (All-In), Hero calls t1570.
Turn: (t4790)
![[6d]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6d.gif "The Six of Diamonds")
(2 players, 1 all-in)River: (t4790)
![[8c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8c.gif "The Eight of Clubs")
(2 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: t4790
Any thoughts on this hand? I'm confident my 3x BB raise with KTo on the button was fine. He min-raised me, which usually would mean AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ... or at least KQs. If he raised me all-in, I probably would have folded (2800 pot and 2200 to call - not quite 2:1... more like 1.3:1) and I figure he at least had an ace, and if not, a pocket pair which would give me a probably coin flip situation (unless TT-AA). Either way, I wouldn't have had the odds to continue.
I was happy to see all those spades on the flop with my Ks. I also had a gutshot draw. I quickly counted the pot odds (~3200 pot and ~1500 to call, so ~2:1) and then counted my outs 9 (spades) + 4 (J-gutshot). 13 outs x 4 = 52 / 100 = ~1.9 - 1 = 0.9:1. I certainly had the odds to make this call - plus I had a massive chip lead and we're on the bubble. Eliminating one player would have been wonderful.
I know, he could have had an Ace-spade or QQ. I assigned QQ a low probability since a Q was on the flop and making a set on the flop isn't that likely. So his likely holdings... AA (perhaps with As), KK (doubtful - I have a K), QQ (doubtful - Q on flop), AK (perhaps As), AQ (perhaps As). The only ones I was worried about were the AK, AQ or AA with an ace of spade.
When he turned over AhQc I knew I had another out, my K. So I had 16 outs really... giving me... 16x4 = 64 / 100 = ~1.5 - 1 = 0.5:1. 2:1 pot odds and 0.5:1 drawing odds. Perfect.
Any thoughts?
Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:31 pm
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So... 9 outs on the flush, 3 outs for the K. 12 outs x 4 = 48 / 100 = 2.1 - 1 = 1.1. My odds of hitting the K or the flush with 2 cards to come would have been around 1.1:1.
If I weren't so massively large stacked (3x or more the other three), had a decent draw with the right odds (now that I factor in the overcard draw), and could knock out a player getting me ITM and with an even larger lead, then I would have folded here.
Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:00 pm
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Hero (t7910)
UTG (t2515)
Button (t1850)
SB (t2725)
Preflop: Hero is BB with
![[6s]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6s.gif "The Six of Spades")
, . UTG calls t200, 1 fold, SB raises to t400, Hero calls t200, UTG calls t200.
Flop: (t1200)
![[Jc]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jc.gif "The Jack of Clubs")
, ![[Ts]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ts.gif "The Ten of Spades")
, ![[Js]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
(3 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets t2115 (All-In), SB folds, Hero calls t2115.
Turn: (t5430)
![[3c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
(2 players, 1 all-in)River: (t5430)
![[9c]](http://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9c.gif "The Nine of Clubs")
(2 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: t5430
The one moving all-in (UTG) has been very aggressive. I have 3x his stack. I figured on the flop he wouldn't push all-in if he already had trips or full house. I put him on a pair. I wish I bet a sizeable amount before him, perhaps 900-1000 (into a pot of 1200).
The pot was 1200 before UTG pushed all-in, making the pot 3300 and 2115 to call. That's about 1.5:1, so my call was a little loose. Before I made the call, I even said "let's gamble". I knew the odds of hitting my flush with 2 cards to come was about 2:1, not the 1.5:1 I needed. But I started thinking... if I knock this player out, I'm in the money and have an even bigger chip stack. If I lose, I still will be chip leader. What do you think of this call?
If I bet into him first, he probably would have raised all-in regardless, but I would have a much easier call. Let's say I bet 900, making the pot 2100, he raises all-in putting in another 1200. Now I would have to call 1200 into a pot of 3300 (~2.7:1), giving me the proper odds of hitting my flush with two cards to come.
How would you have handled this situation? Folded pre-flop? I had a king with a mediocre kicker, it's just the three of us, UTG limped in, Button min-raised... I knew UTG would call, so I was expecting a nice pot here and I had the potential to hurt both players.
BTW, thanks again for the advice everyone with my last post ("Losing Streak"). I started raising bigger than usual, and it certainly paid off. I became a major chip leader and ended up winning the tournament.
Statistics: Posted by EscapePlan9 — Tue Jul 05, 2005 3:54 pm
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