You'd be making a huge mistake calling an all in bet in a $10+1 Party SNG in that situation. You are almost certainly against a made hand (AKQ of the flush suit are out), and it's very very likely that either 3 or 6 of your 15 outs are no good. You are definitely an underdog to survive. With 3/4 of your stack remaining so early in the SNG I think you need to make that fold every time.
SNG value of survival is way higher than even an MTT. This is because even early in an SNG with a short stack, you can be assured of survival at least to the point where the blinds are 50/100, with only 8000 chips at the table. Blind steals here give you plenty of reason to fold now and survive so that you can be the aggressor later. Even when you do get called on a blind steal later, you're likely to have a similar chance to survive as you do in this example hand.
Why do you think it's a close call? I'm curious, because I certainly have things I need to learn about even my area of greatest knowledge.Statistics: Posted by Nashvegas — Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:42 pm
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