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Live Poker Forum - Online Poker Forums & Hand Analysis Poker Forum 2006-09-27T16:02:52-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/feed.php?f=8&t=18020&mode 2006-09-27T16:02:52-06:00 2006-09-27T16:02:52-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162792#p162792 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:02 pm

]]> 2006-09-27T16:01:54-06:00 2006-09-27T16:01:54-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162791#p162791 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by adiuvat — Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:01 pm

]]> 2006-09-27T14:30:20-06:00 2006-09-27T14:30:20-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162752#p162752 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Xaston — Wed Sep 27, 2006 2:30 pm

]]> 2006-09-27T09:28:40-06:00 2006-09-27T09:28:40-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162663#p162663 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:28 am

]]> 2006-09-27T04:16:18-06:00 2006-09-27T04:16:18-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162609#p162609 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by DaFish — Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:16 am

]]> 2006-09-26T13:38:11-06:00 2006-09-26T13:38:11-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162356#p162356 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Dumb Snowman — Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:38 pm

]]> 2006-09-26T13:16:52-06:00 2006-09-26T13:16:52-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162346#p162346 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:16 pm

]]> 2006-09-26T12:11:51-06:00 2006-09-26T12:11:51-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162319#p162319 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by adiuvat — Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:11 pm

]]> 2006-09-26T11:43:54-06:00 2006-09-26T11:43:54-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162308#p162308 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by DaFish — Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:43 am

]]> 2006-09-26T10:02:38-06:00 2006-09-26T10:02:38-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162274#p162274 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:02 am

]]> 2006-09-26T09:51:40-06:00 2006-09-26T09:51:40-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162272#p162272 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by DaFish — Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:51 am

]]> 2006-09-26T00:10:15-06:00 2006-09-26T00:10:15-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=162154#p162154 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Schuster — Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:10 am

]]> 2006-09-25T14:53:58-06:00 2006-09-25T14:53:58-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=161947#p161947 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:53 pm

]]> 2006-09-25T13:21:23-06:00 2006-09-25T13:21:23-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=161902#p161902 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]> Statistics: Posted by DaFish — Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:21 pm

]]> 2006-09-25T11:53:50-06:00 2006-09-25T11:53:50-06:00 http://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=18020&p=161850#p161850 <![CDATA[Conditional Probability - Thoughts?]]>
What is the value of Ted doubling through Daniel.

What is the value of Teds stack if he checks and loses

What is the value if Ted busts?

Maybe Daniel thinks there is a 0 percent chance that he has a 6, but that doesn't mean Ted thinks that.

Daniel is getting 2:1 immediate odds on his money, and he is likely to get some free cards if he wants too.

Daniel's little bet of 3k seems quite strange.

What is Daniel going to be able to call a push with? only an ace or a 6. Sure there is a very low probability he has a 6, but there is also a low probablility he has an A.

with 3 aces gone, coming up with a range hands for daniel is pretty difficult. Maybe 77-QQ ? Would he call with AJ with Ted in the pot? Probably not AT.

I agree with the premise of Daniel's article, and Howard is only doing half the math with his 50/50 comment, but Daniel seems to be over simplifying it too.

There was a big discussion on this a year or so ago when the article first appeared in cardplayer on "4" but I don't remember what the general take was.

Statistics: Posted by Beavis68 — Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:53 am

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