Against a frequent stealer my 3bet range (since i CB this flop 100% of time) has JJ beat 17% of time +/-
Pls fold JJ all day long to me on that flop

edit: point being..think of his range and how far ahead JJ really is. Dependent on aggressiveness and quality of opponent, folding JJ on that flop could actually be a leak especially given the decent odds on flop.

Against AQ on that board JJ is ahead 100% of the time. What's your point? That is the only hand I see him folding that he raised/called PF with. He ain't floating with other underpairs and he ain't folding anything that beats us, and he is in fact trapping a high % of the time, and we may have to 3 barrel a blank river to take down an already overbloated pot, and it's not going to work against anything he is going to the river with but a busted draw, so its spew.

Johnnie,

David makes his points extremely clear. I really don't understand how so some micro stake players can talk so definitively with all their statements, especially when talking to players who play 10-20 (40?) times their buy in.

1) He wouldn't be calling the flop with 77, but t's not unreasonable for him to have a T or a hand like AJ/QQ/JJ. David actually tried to do some math to see how often we need to get him to fold, and it's close.

2) How can he have a busted draw on the river? It'd be a trivial easy shove with JQ on the flop and why would he call with a draw on the turn? No draw even came on the turn, not even a flush draw for a hand that floated. And to boot, you say we need to three barrel sometimes to get him to fold his draws, but our hand beats any draw! So basically you advise three barreling sometimes only to blast him off the hands we already beat and stack off to the rest. Three barreling here is horrible.

3) We have the best possible hand to double barrel with, so we should be double barreling this board never then. This probably isn't a big issue to you as you're probably not at the stage where you try to balance your value bets with bluffs or anything, but from a mathematical perspective this is horrible.

I know it seems like I'm coming down hard on you Johnny, but it's just annoying when people throw the word "spew" around when we're looking at differently lines and they don't really have any idea what they're talking about. It really hurts the discussion.

I speak definitively cause thats how I feel about the hand with my current amount of knowledge. Thanks for you insight, cause it really helps.

I'm currently playing 50 and moving up to 100 very soon and I just think we can find better spots to bluff. If it's that close, why even bother? Just find a better spot. Villain is somewhat nitty and imo we're very rarely getting better hands to fold. Doubt he's calling the flop with a gutter and if you think he has QQ or JJ often enough then I guess its a 2 barrel. What do you do on the river?

River I would check with the intentions to check/fold.

If you think a 20/15 can only have JJ+ there that's fine, just make sure your logic is consistent (meaning your 3-bet should rarely be getting called so you should be 3-betting a ton, and your flop bet should rarely be getting called so you should be CB almost every board [though this one is pretty obvious]).

And if it's close you should be doing it imo, that's how you get better and make yourself harder to play against and give people a chance to make big mistakes.

BTW, JN & DH..its good for less experienced players to post their opinions because then we can notice flaws in their logic and help them more than by just making them learn by heart what do to in certain situations. Its good to post wrong advice and get corrected than not post any at all and just read most standard lines for situation. By posting they learn much more and I guess that is the point of hosting these forums

GSDavid I really appreciate you taking the time to write all that out, and I understand everything you wrote.

Only recently did I start lagging it up and now I realize people fold an absolute ton more than people will give them credit for (at least at NL$200+). I do not know the exact ranges for the average full tilt reg or anything, I do however think we usually have much more fold equity in most spots than people think we do, simply because most NL$200ers are such nits and climbed up stakes simply always trying to show down the best hand. For the last 15k hands or so I've pretty much been trying to run over most tables and have gotten very very good results (I squeeze almost every chance I get for example).

I would imagine the average 3-bet calling range is very very tight at these stakes, based off poker tracker 3 I would say most regs have a fold to 3-bet between 75-80% which without a doubt makes this play much worse. That said I would not be 3-betting JQ here so this does make AQ the best hand for me to do this with, and I do think most people lack the balls to really

FWIW he tanked the turn and insta-checked behind the river with KQs. So, although being results oriented is silly I do kind of need to build up some data for whether or not these plays are +EV, and I'm still not sure since people are such nits when calling the 3-bet but also so scared to call the double barrel (any T and JJ/QQ are instamucked I think). The real problem is whether or not people will even call the 3-bet with JTs which I don't think they will, or if they're good enough to smooth call the turn again with TT/KK so I get tons of implied odds for a J (which they should do if they'd smooth call with QQ, but I don't think they will). Yeah this is close I think.

Thanks for all your analysis GSDavid it is good stuff.

I also wanted to clarify that sometimes we need to make a play that is not even +EV for sake of metagame if that would make us harder to read and play against. For example we make a negative EV bluff but then have greater EV expectation with a real hand. Only trouble is that its hard to discern then when we are spewing and when we are not.

i like it a lot. guy is definitely going to fold more than 30% of the time to make this profitable. he probably 3bets AK every time so you don't even have to worry about it and sets are pretty unlikely. KQ-KJ is about all that is somewhat likely that will continue.