$100 NL at Royal Vegas. I have very limited reads on everyone (because I'm playing at a PLO table with a monster stack and a juicy 200PLO8 on Stars that is taking a lot of my attention), though the table is mostly the usual passive nonsense found on this site.

I have played very tight so far.

AKo in MP, I raise it to $5 preflop.

Co and button both call, the BB comes along too.

Flop a garbagey 246 with two heart. Not great. BB checks, no way I'm touching this and take a check too. CO and button both check it out.

Turn brings Ah. I have Kh. There's a flush out, but I have TPTK and I expect there's at least one AQ/AJ type hand that may pay me off very nicely here. The fact the Ah and Kh are accounted for make a flush very unlikely (though still possible on this table) and I have the nut draw anyways. I can't really see 3-5 being very likely. A set is always possible but a longshot; I think a set would mostly bet that flop anyways.

BB leads out for $15, 3/4 pot or so. I think he likely has AQ/AJ and I want some action on the river. I don't care if anyone with a low flush draw wants to come along, in fact I encourage it! So I smooth call, intending to make a big raise on the river.

River brings another 6. The BB leads for $25 into a $50 or so pot. I raise him up another $50, I have him covered and this raise basically puts him all in. I had no read on this guy that's very specific but I think he was basically sound.

Thoughts on this play, anything you'd think was badly flawed? Anyone raise the turn? I couldn't see what good that would do, as if he has a set I'm toast anyhow and if he has AJ or AT I don't want to scare him off. I also want to reserve the right to pass if a later player moves over the top and I have no odds to draw a flush.

Monk
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Why do you think that flop is not bettable? Some people wont bet into 2 opponents with an unimproved AK, and thats fine, but it sounded like you didnt think you could bet because of this particular flop. I love that flop. (if I cant have an ace or king of course).

I do think I wouldve raise the turn. He almost certainly has either AQ or AJ with a high , or an overpair like [Td]. Either way, hes going to call your raise.

I agree to some extent about the turn play; however, I wasn't wanting to move him off a hand like AT or AJ, I wanted him to bet that again. I thought if I was ahead that he had basically 3 outs to win it, and I wanted to let in any other players on a weak ace, lower flush draw, or a pair of some sort still to act (there were two with position on me yet to act). The only disadvantage i can see is that a heart on the river would kill my action, more than likely. Plus, I give myself a free card if he DOES have an unlikely flush , though that's largely a moot point as I'm moving all in here pretty much regardless, even if he re-raised.

I am interested to hear why you think raising on the turn is better than giving my opponent more rope to hang himself on the river; I didn't want to reveal my A-big kicker just yet, don't you think it's possible that a decent player will drop AJ or something here if I raise it back on the turn, yet might well lead out again on a safe river if I only call?

I wouldn't bet into a field of calling-station type opponents with AK, no draw and a low flop. I understand that the chances of me taking it down are reasonable, but I don't want to get stuck facing a middle pair who gets stubborn. There were 3 players still to act, not 2 (though one had checked already). I am beginning to see some strength behind this play (I may get someone who likes to call with overcards coming along, for instance) but if someone raises with a PP i'll have wasted my pot bet, and if someone calls along i'm all ready to be bluffed/bet off the hand if anything other than an A or K hits the turn. The flop was relatively immaterial, it was more the number of players involved and their texture (3 smooth callers of raises preflop, short stacks = passives).

I am interested to hear what you think the positives and negatives of betting into the flop in this spot are. Do you find generally positive results with this sort of play? I'm pretty sure I'm getting called/raised maybe 50-60% of the time at least, and given that I'm then going into check-fold mode unless I catch one of my cards on the turn, this seems an unnecessary risk, but I don't know, maybe it's marginal positive. I would be more inclined to do so if I had position. Your thoughts?

Monk
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PS though it's basically incidental, he called my river raise and had 22 for the slowplayed low boat.

I will usually fire out a bet on the flop. You are very unlikely to get raised, and as the preflop aggressor, you need to bet to continue representing a big hand. Unless button and CO were complete calling stations, chances are they won't call with that raggedy flop. If you get raised you know to drop it right away. Even if you get called, you could theoretically be ahead (to a AQ or KQ type of hand), and you probably have 6 outs otherwise. Checking isn't bad, I just think betting will be more profitable for you in the long run.

Here's the way I think you should do it. Today, I did it differently and considered it an error in judgement. I had A,K in the big blind and raised the pot and got two callers. A gargage flop came and I bet into it which I should not have. A,K hits 1/3 of the time and that is enough. I catch a call, another rag comes off and I must check and cannot call a pot size bet.

I would have raised big on the turn with the A,K. It is there you make them pay a price to draw at something. It is there they will committ money. Actually, I have done it and seen it done so much that I would only slow play a very special person here. It is on fourth you do your thing. Again, this afternoon, I had Aces and Fours, two pair on the flop. Two hearts on the flop. I bet all I could. Two callers. Nothing on fourth. I bet all I could and was really glad to win it there. It is the same principal. You play the hands someone might be drawing against fast and protect them. No check raising. No slow playing No fancy way to lose the pot. Fire at it until they weaken but do it with a hand like A,K.

When you are making a very straight forward stong bet almost by the book play, you are also giving the opponent the chance to make an error. You fire at it like a man with A,K but they dream up some way to lose money.

If I had played it the way you did until fifth, I would not have raised him. What can he call you with? One simple unthought of reason for making your power plays on fourth street is that everyone has 6 cards. Later they will have seven. You had your hand and was not looking for improvement. You can't put him on two cards so easy here.

Johnny Hughes

I take your point Johnny but then, what can he call me with on 4th that he can't on the river? Do you think he would call a large turn raie with AJ but muck it on the river? I would think his chances of calling me down are similar in both spots, but that if I leave it until the river, I can perhaps make him lead the hand again. If I'm ahead on the turn, there's basically NOTHING he can have a significant draw to. Ace with any kicker, he has 3 outs to pair his kicker. Pair below an ace, he has 2 outs to hit a set. Anything else, he's either ahead or dead.

If a J or Q comes on the river, I might slow it down and just call (though I suspect he'd move all in here with his 2 pair). Any other card and I'm setting him up for a big raise. I take your point that USUALLY the turn is the place to push hard and prevent someone drawing, but here he's either ahead or drawing to less than a 1 in 15 shot; do you not think it's appropriate to try to give him rope to hang himself on 4th street if his magic river doesn't come, especially since I raised preflop so he would have me on AK/AQ if I raised 4th?

Monk
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There are three things that happen on fourth in this hand.

If he can call on fifth and you are right, he can call on fourth and is more likely too. The floor mans gonna bar me if I get too specific about why it is best to bet while you are ahead rather than wait until you might be behind.

On fourth, he can look at that board and put you on a hand he might beat easier than at the river.

People bluff less often at the river so a call on fourth is better.

Folks with Ace and a bad kicker make up one hell of a lot of poker. Wiser folks can tell you why it is best to get their money in the center early but it is.

Part of this might have to do with your betting patterns and table image. I semi bluff the flop often enough that it pays me to fire at it most forcefully when I am in this solid position. Some of these old boys would call a frog up out of a log.

I make a lot of my money when me and that other fellow mis communicate and a collision of misperception and a mountain of chips has me thinking I am protecting my hand and him thinking I am stone cold bluffing. I'm nervous as a whore in church and I have the cold water nuts. We both have a bad read on what is going on but I have a better play to take with you on the road.

Give you a recent hand. I flop two bottom pair, a scary thing to a small rainbow flop. I'm betting all I can as fast as I can putting him on a high wired pair or a straight draw. He really has A,K and is nearly drawing dead. You end up building the biggest possible pot often when you are using your ammunition to fire away in protecting your hand.

Obviously knowing the result makes it difficult to be objective, but this feels like the sort of hand where if the money goes in you're going to be behind (though I've never played at Royal Vegas ... is it comparably fishy to Party?).

By the river, there's a possible straight, flush, trips, and full house on the board. Nobody has really defined their hand, since there was no flop action, so you have no idea where you are; and the AJ/AQ read seems optimistic. Note that the BB is arguably most likely to have connected strongly with this board.

I like check calling turn and river (but folding to a big river bet) as the best compromise between getting money when you're ahead and minimising your losses when you're behind. Keep the pot small with TPTK!

[EDIT]

The more I think about this, the more I dislike either turn or river raise. What hands will bet that turn (which might conceivably have called a raise pre-flop, and checked the flop):

- A?Th, A?Jh, A?Qh (12 hands; surely he's not going to bet TP without a heart?!)
- hearts suited connector: 3h4h-JhQh (14 hands)
- 22,44,66 (18 hands)

So you're probably behind more than 1/3rd of the time on the turn.

The 2/3 of the time you're behind on the turn, you draw out ~1/5 of the time, so on purely pot odds you have 5/15+2/3*1/5=7/15, ie the turn is a clear call ... there are various implied odds as well.

On the river he bets $25 into the $50 pot, so it's another call on pot odds.

[Even if he would bet with A[TJQ] not hearts, he's definitely not going to call a raise with them. Since you should call turn and river even without these, the chance of these occuring is not relevant... though it might be if he'd bet bigger on the river. Similar remarks apply to bluffs]

With the board pairing, what hands will you make fold on the river with a raise? Probably not flushes, since you're the least likely person to have a set. Definitely not sets. So basically only the hands that you beat.

A raise on the turn is less clear, but a bet big enough to fold a set is likely also to fold all the hands you beat, leaving just the flushes (which are all going to call).