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horrible stats but still winning

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horrible stats but still winning

Postby tooters » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:45 am

I use Poker Tracker extensivly to data mine. I also use Poker Edge extensivly in combination with Poker Tracker when I play.
The combination really gives me a strong idea of how a player plays and more importantly for this discussion what there stats are.

With this in mind I have seen several players( at least 30) that have in my opinion horrible stats, but I know consistantly win money(from poker tracker and other misc notes that I put on them recording there winnings).

The stats that I'm talking about usually fall into two areas. One group of loose players look like this- above 50% VP$IP, above 2.5 post flop agg, and above 10% pre flop rse.

The other group looks pretty much the same except they have really low post flop agg, like 0.5 or 0.6.

I have seen several players in each area win $ consistantly(sometimes over hundreds of hands with me at the table, in one sessiion). I dont understand how they do this. I was hoping that someone could comment on both types of players and help me understand how there pulling this off. There all playing $100 NL at Party skins. Thanks in advance
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Postby briachek » Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:54 pm

Just curious, what kind of sample size do you have to show they consistently win money? They could be on a run of good cards and good tables for their play.
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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Dec 10, 2004 3:06 am

I think what you need to look at is the groups overall and not just one player, in order to get a feeling for these player types. I have been data mining at party and have almost
40,000 hands. Out of curiosity I like to check who I have up and down the most money and a lot of the player that are <50% VP$IP are in my top 100 winners but there are also a lot that are in my lost the most. Overall my LAA players are -15.87 BB/100 which is third worst on my list behind LAP and calling stations.

As for the low preflop agression, in my PT sessions the TP A is the second biggest group. I am one of the players in this group. At least at party, it really takes cards to win, you aren't going to push someone off a hand. For this reason on such wild sites, I dont think passive preflop is a horrible way to play.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Dec 10, 2004 3:49 am

It's nothing but short term variation. Hyper-aggressive maniac players can get real hot and go on massive runs of cards and, due to their aggression and the number of players wiling to try to chase them down, they will make huge scores. Just one or two sessions like this and they will be showing huge figures (in terms of winrate, BB/100 etc) on your pokertracker. A few hundred hands is ABSOLUTELY nothing, you can take some account of a player's style, but draw very few conclusions about his winrate from such short term data. I wouldn't give it a second thought, to be honest.

Hope this helps.

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Postby tooters » Sun Dec 12, 2004 5:24 pm

I guess what I really want to know is everyone extremly confident that a person cant be a winner over the long run with these types of stats.
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Postby briachek » Sun Dec 12, 2004 6:04 pm

My opinion is that only people with extremely good reading ability can possibly be profitable like that, such as Gus Hansen. I don't know what his stats would be like but because he is so good as reading opponents, he benefits the most by playing in such a manner than makes himself so difficult to read. I would think that most pros would see about 20% of flops at most while Gus is probably seeing over 30% and raising most of them and continuing to play aggressively as he plays his opponents rather than the cards. It would see as this would be the greatest benefit in NL because people will eventually try to come after you, many times with nothing thinking you are bluffing and then you show a premium hand and take them for a lot. There would be much greater variance but it can work.

However, most people aren't reading people and are just playing their cards and get lucky with a really tight table and winning with garbage hands that hits and win big because they are well disguised. I would probably guess that unless you have a very large sample of hands from a person, you probably just have their stats during a rush.

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