Dealt 89o in the sb.

Folds to me... I open to $12 (my standard though I'm considering going 4x lately.) BB calls.
We have a blind battle.

BB is a fairly laggy but good thinking player. A winner. If he has any notes on me.. it would be that I'm a TAG who doesn't 2 or 3 barrel often enough. (that's changing fast heh)

FLOP$24
[Jc][2c]

I bet $16, he calls.

TURN$56
[Jc][2c]

That seems like a good card to 2 barrel. I continue with a bet of $44. He calls.

RIVER$142
[Jc][2c]

It's going to be very hard for him to call with the majority of his range now, right? Backdoor flush hit, another overcard to a jack or 7. He probably has marked as nittish...we have no showdown value. Do we bet this 100%?

I bet $112


Results later.

Thoughts on all streets welcome.

well, if you fire the last barrel here, what sort of hands will he call/raise with?

obviously he's never folding two pair here, though i doubt he'll raise most two pairs on this board.

he's never folding hearts. He's never folding KT if he managed to backdoor himself into it [Tc] ftl.

he probably won't fold an ace if he decided to float you on the flop with the overcard.

There's also a chance he'll station it up with Xc, though that's not very likely.

He should be folding everything else. Jx is going to be *very* hard to call with here, and will be a long run losing call. those are great runners to get Jx - or really any other flopped pair that hasn't improved - to fold. Obviously he needs to be folding clubs here. And of course it's always possible he was floating you the whole way hoping to bluff if you ever showed weakness.

So this is tough. there's a lot of hands he could have, but we have very little real info on his hand. All he's done is float in position so far. Not exactly a whole lot you can get about his range from that.

Still, I think you're right. this is probably a good spot to fire a third barrel. He could have decided to peal one more card with a *lot* of hands on the turn, almost all of which beat 9 high, and a lot of which will fold to solid aggression. I think $76 is a good bet here. it's not so much that you're losing a grip when you're wrong, but it should be strong enough to get him to fold a lot of his range.

If he does call, make sure that you use it to your advantage. make sure that you make a note about how he might think you'll barrel light. And then make sure that the next time you fire on the river, you do it knowing that he's not going to believe you very much.

FWIW, I watched a video of Brian Townsend where he spoke about raising 65o and such hands from SB as being a leak he noticed in alot of good players especially when BB is a good LAG.

God this is way outside my zone because the opponent being "good" "thinking" opponents are so not something I'm used to.

I like the river bet. I hate preflop because why get yourself into this kind of situation in the first place against a good player? But once you're there, since you have him down as a thinking player, I like relying on your image and firing hard.

PF I think 4x or even 5x is much better OOP.

Otherwise I like for the most part, although I'd suggest caution OOP. One of the most important aspects here is that the J isn't a heart. Hence, you can easily have something like Jh9h etc. (but he can, too, and that's the biggest problem imo with OOP bluffs).

I'd also be inclined to make the river bet either somewhat smaller or somewhat larger, but that also depends on how you play it when you do have a flush. As for me, I'd probably fire 140 on KhJh, more like 75-80 on Jh9h, but if 112 is what you bet with some flushes, then fine.

If you want to bluff here, also a few more options: Check-call turn, fire club or diamond river if he bets (likely meaning he doesn't have the draws but rather some kind of made hand). Or: CR turn repping AJ, which obviously sucks if that's what he has but you do have the advantage of still having your gutshot if he calls. But against this player, I really feel like AJ is only a very small part of his range.

I disagree with excession's "the river bet is spew" conclusion, because I think a lot of people would value bet this river about the amount you bet with a set or AJ type hands, as well as with the miracle hearts or straight. I think way more than 50% of his range has to fold on this river.