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Weak or a good fold?

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Weak or a good fold?

Postby Kurab » Mon Nov 22, 2004 1:22 pm

Playing .5/1 NL at UB , just sat down so no great reads on anyone.

Dealt QQ in MP , I raise to 5.50 (pot)

A loose player (37% flopps seen) reraises the min to $9 , then a tight player reraises him to 14.50.

I am not liking the looks of this so I fold.

Of course the flop comes QTx - the tight player bets bot and the other player folds....

Was this a good fold or too weak?

Let me have it
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Postby iceman5 » Mon Nov 22, 2004 2:05 pm

Stack sizes are very important here.
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Postby Smokin'Al » Mon Nov 22, 2004 2:05 pm

What stacks did you and everybody have? UB 0.5/1, presumably somewhere in the $100 region.

The odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, and it's $9 to you. So you have implied odds to call provided you think that (i) the original re-raiser will call ie not move in after your call (ii) the pot will end up more than ~$80.

The pot is already going to be $43.50 after the three of you call, so the chances of (ii) are good unless one of you is shortstacked.

So your main worry is the loose player moving in after you call. What was his pre-flop raise %, which may be a better indication of his likely intentions than flops seen?

Assuming he's not the sort to scoot his chips into the middle, and with reasonably deep stacks, it's a call - but folding certainly isn't horrible ... probably slightly lower EV, but also lower variance (which might be important depending on the size of your bankroll).

If you'd ever seen the loose player overbet the pot all-in early in a hand, that would suggest a fold, I think.

Without the implied odds for a set, it's a clear fold for me, with the action not yet finished pre-flop; and out of position and probably behind once the flop hits.
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