by Felonius_Monk » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:57 am
Iceman, it is costing him $2.50 to see a flop in what is going to be a $15 pot, and he is last to act. I think this gave lumberjack ample odds to call to chase a set. The only possible argument against this is the possibility that, with so many callers, there's another jack out there somewhere, but I think getting 5-1 on the call it's a pretty easy one to make preflop.
The $3 raise signifies EITHER AK/AQ or a pair TT or better, unless you have a specific read that this guy raises a lot. Pokertracker, as mentioned above, is a great tool here - you can find out what % of hands this guy raises preflop (if you've played a significant number of hands against him); if it's somewhere in the 5-10% region, chances are he's raising all his pairs tens and over, his big aces, and possibly now and again the likes of KQ. A $3 raise looks pretty strong, though, so I'd have him on some sort of hand he wants to play hard and fast, a big pair or AK most likely. Out of all the possible hands he may have raised preflop with, you're only dominating TT (i.e. against all other hands you're a big underdog or about evens), so I don't see how you can re-raise all in here. HOWEVER, if we assume that the other callers may or may not have a jack (i.e. that all 3 callers are no more likely to hold a jack than if they hold random hands) then you have a 7-1 chance of hitting a set on the flop, and you are getting "pot odds" of 5-1; that is, you have to pay 1 unit to the 5 units currently in the pot ($12.50 in the pot and it costs you $2.50 to see a flop). So, if we assume your only real chance of winning here is hitting a set of jacks, you do not have correct pot odds to call. That fails to take into account the implied odds of winning big if you DO hit. If the raiser has AK and the flop comes AJ5, you will take his stack. If someone has a lower pair and hits a low set to you JJJ, you will win their stack. With the pot so big, and the stacks relatively low, there is every chance you may win two or more stacks if you catch a set of jacks, so there is a chance that that 1 in 8 shot, if it hits, will pay you off with a collosal pot. Therefore the "implied odds" of making your winning hand make it worth calling the $2.50 to see if you can hit your set.
HOWEVER, this pre-supposes you can lay down your JJ if you don't hit. Against 4 opponents you really need to make a set to be especially confident here, and you were very "lucky" to get all in on the flop with the best hand. Anyone with two overcards to a flush draw (AKs) is a little better than evens to beat you, anyone with a higher pair or (QQ, KK, AA) or a low set (55, 77 etc) is beating you here and has you practically dead in the water. You are highly unlikely to get called/bet into by a hand that you can beat against most opponents, and evn at NL25 where the opposition is very loose, it's marginal as to whether your jacks have much chance of being ahead on a 5-handed low flop. If you were going to get all in on a low flop, you are supposing you're NOT facing a bigger pocket pair and thus you should have got all in on the flop.
In summary, there would be two correct ways to play this hand, given the small stacks involved:
1) If you think you're ahead preflop, move all in, thus reducing the number of opponents and getting it heads up. I really don't see any situation on a 25NL table against so many callers when you can really say JJ is definitely ahead.
2) Otherwise, call and try to hit a set, and muck your hand if you miss.
A third option as iceman pointed out is to fold preflop, which would certainly not be terrible here but I think for $2.50 you can afford to take a peek at a flop in a $15 pot.
Hope this helps.
Monk
xxxxx
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