Most of the pros would disagree with that line, though. I don't know the exact stats but I would guess I get to a double stack in over 66% of the tournaments I play, at some point. Again I could be wrong because I haven't really studied this topic, like, at all. I just think that in a deep stacked tournament, the value of the chips you start with is more valuable than doubling up once, especially on the first day. Again, this is just an oppinion and I really don't think there is a "wrong" answer to this.

There is definitely a right answer, and if you view gambling as making moves that maximize your expection, there is also a wrong answer. I believe my answer is right, but it could be wrong.

Lets take the example of a 500 person tournament and say the starting stack is 1500.

In order to win you need to get 750,000 in chips.

in order to get all the chips you need to double up is 1500*2^x750,000 which is 500=2^x

X = log2(500) = 8.9658

The average player is going to win about 1 in 500 tournaments.

If you think you are say 70% to double you should be winning 20 out of 500, sorry, i dont buy that.

A 55% chance to double up before you bust makes you two x more likely than average to win.

Maybe you could increase your odds of your FIRST double up by passing up chances early, but you are doing that at the detriment of your later double ups.

Each double is just as important as the last.

From an ROI perspective, someone with a average chance has a 0% ROI expectation is someone has 2x the chance, they would have a 100% ROI, Most pro's say they have expectation of 200%-300% I have read. That would put them at around 57% or so to double up their stack before they bust.

I don't believe it, folding AA is the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

either that or dutch asked the stupidest poker players alive.


I wouldn't put too much stock in some off the cuff answer you heard in a podcast.