We've all been there. The river puts a 3rd suited card on the board, and our set of Jacks gets beat by a flush. You want to shout how can you play 9,3 suited. I raised preflop, bet on the flop, bet on the turn, you never had close to pot odds. Of course all you say is nice hand, after all you are both a decent poker player and a decent person.

So what are the actual odds of hitting a flush in Texas Hold'em?

I'm glad you asked.

Starting with two suited cards there is a 6.4% chance that you will make a flush. That is about one out of every 16 hands (15.6 to be exact). However if we assume that you fold unless you get at least two more suited cards on the flop the odds of making the flush are 4.7% or about one out of every 21 hands. The odds that you will hit the flush on the flop is 0.8% or one out of every 119 times.

Ok, so lets say you are in the big blind with a J,6 suited and you get to see the flop for free. The Flop brings two more suited cards and you have four to the flush. The odds that you will get the flush by the river is 35% (1 out of 2.9). The odds you will hit your flush draw on the turn is 19.1% or once every 5.2 times. If you miss it one the turn, you have a 19.6% chance you will hit it on the river (1 out of 5.1).

Just to recap:

Preflop
1 out of 15.6 (6.4%) overall that you will hit the flush.
1 out of 21.4 (4.7%) if you don't consider going runner-runner.

Flop

1 out of 2.9 (35%) that you will hit a flush draw on the turn or the river.
1 out of 5.2 (19.1%) that you will hit a flush draw on the turn.

Turn
1 out of 5.1 (19.6%) that you will hit a flush draw on the river.

I HATE FLUSH CHASERS!!!!!
My favorite thing in the whole world (at least the poker world) is for a flush chaser to hit his flush at the river when the card also gives me my full house.

Striker 2550,

I'm no mathmatician but 8/1 seems way too short to me.

I've tried working my limited brain cells and I came up with about a 4% chance or roughly a 25/1 shot.

My way of thinking was there would be 10 of the suited cards remaining out of a possible 47 that you haven't seen. So the chances of the next card being of that suit would be 10/47, which would then make the river a 9/46 chance and obviously both would have to happen to make the runner runner flush.

This is more than likely complete nonsense, I'm sure a clever person can put us all straight.

Just the read the post directly above you. If memory seves me right thats the correct answer. (17-1)

My figures are this;
4.16% chance
or 23 to 1
someone verify please?

That's what I got Striker.

yep, 4.16% - but thats 24-1

Another way to think about it is that if you have a runner-runner flush draw, that's the equivalent of 2 outs/1 street to come, or 1 out/2 streets to come.

So don't forget to add that out to your hand! Say you have say QJs and the flop comes Qxx with just one of your suit, your opponent bets, and you're pretty sure he has KK or AA. You have top pair plus the backdoor flush draw against the overpair. Instead of 5 outs twice for about 20% to win, you have 6 outs twice for about 24%.

redhouse,

Pretty sure its 23 to 1

I think u used 100 / 4.16 = 24

But it should be (100 - 4.16) / 4.16 = 95.84 / 4.16 = 23

Remember its 95.84 to 4.16 not 100 to 4.16

you're right, my bad