I wrote down the last 5 hands I've seen where someone was all-in preflop in tournament play and called. Just for the heck of it. On the following hands, what are the odds that the underdog will win all 5 because that is exactly what happened? I was not involved in the 1st hand only. I was the loser in the next 4.

AJ vs A9 - 9 on flop
QQ vs AJs - flopped flush draw, completed on river
AT vs A6s - 6 on turn
KK vs AJs - A on flop
AQ vs 89 - 8 on turn

I pretty much know the odds on each hand. You would think the favorite would win at least 3, but what are the odds that the dog wins all 5?

PS - In my journal I am keeping a running count of these type hands if anybody cares, just because it's driving me nuts.

Gotta add this hand to that one. Posting the entire hand because it's just too difficult to believe. 1st hand of a Sit and Go. Wasn't involved in this hand thank God.

No-limit Texas Hold'em $10+$1 (real money), #1,273,735,759
Raleigh Single Table Tournament, 16 Sep 2005 10:41 PM ET



Seat 1: x1adam12x ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 2: rab-c ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 3: asjurs ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 4: roadracer47 ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 5: mgacilan ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 6: Vladimer ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 7: PayMeDaMoney ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 8: alexanac ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 9: deannapaige ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 10: theeyedoc ($1,500 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
PayMeDaMoney posts blind ($10), alexanac posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
deannapaige folds, theeyedoc bets $100, x1adam12x folds, rab-c bets $180, asjurs folds, roadracer47 folds, mgacilan folds, Vladimer bets $375, PayMeDaMoney folds, alexanac folds, theeyedoc bets $1,000, rab-c calls $920, Vladimer bets $1,125 and is all-in, theeyedoc calls $400 and is all-in, rab-c calls $400 and is all-in.

FLOP [board cards 3S,5H,4S ]


TURN [board cards 3S,5H,4S,6C ]


RIVER [board cards 3S,5H,4S,6C,7S ]


SHOWDOWN
Vladimer shows [ KH,KD ]
theeyedoc shows [ AC,QS ]
rab-c shows [ 8S,AH ]
rab-c wins $4,530.



SUMMARY
Dealer: Vladimer
Pot: $4,530
x1adam12x, loses $0
rab-c, bets $1,500, collects $4,530, net $3,030
asjurs, loses $0
roadracer47, loses $0
mgacilan, loses $0
Vladimer, loses $1,500
PayMeDaMoney, loses $10
alexanac, loses $20
deannapaige, loses $0
theeyedoc, loses $1,500

Before the flop KK (73%) AQ (18%) A8 (8%)

A few hands later the same guy took out A7 with 84s. That brings it to 7 dog hands in a row before a few favorites actually won.

You just take the odds of each of the underdog hands winning and multiply them.

For instance if someone has a 20% chance to win in two consecutive hands you simply take (.2 and multiply it with .2). There's a 4% chance for the 20% hand to win twice in a row.

Let me do a more complicated example. AKs vs. 22 (50%/50%), AA vs. KK (80%/20%), and lastly AK vs. A7 (65%/35%).

The odds of the pair of twos winning, then the KK winning, then the A7 winning is simply (.5) x (.2) x (.35) = .035 or 3.5%.

I hope this helps