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Low overfull (Reuben hand 4)

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Low overfull (Reuben hand 4)

Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 16, 2006 6:23 pm

On this hand, I really think I disagree with Reuben and would be interested to hear others' opinions. The hand goes like this:

He limps first to act in a kind of weirdly structured game for, well, I'll just say dollars since I don't have a pound symbol available easily (but where I use the dollar sign, it's actually pounds), anyhow $25 with 9s9d7c5d. Three others limp, and the flop pot is $190 (the weird structure is that everyone anted $10 but then it was $25 to enter the pot).

Flop comes 966 (suits are really virtually irrelevant, so I won't go into it. He checks here and that's really my "issue." Here's what he says: "It is unlikely that anyone has anything of value in this hand. There are only five overcards, so you can afford to take a risk. Passive play may encourage a bluff, whereas making a small bet will simply alert the opposition to the fact that you like the hand. A full-blooded bet will work well, provided that your opponent has a six."

Before going into my issues with this, here's the way it plays out: LP bets the flop. He calls. Then he check-raises the turn pot-sized. His opponent has a 6 and rivers the case 6.

Here's my problem with checking the flop: First, "only five" overcards is about 1/3 of the deck. And the main problem is that those cards really can beat you. You might be able to pick up one bet out of a straight if something like a 7 or 8 hits, but even that is pretty tough. And if a T hits, it may be difficult to determine whether someone is betting TT or a straight.

So, anyhow, I feel like if someone has a 6, which isn't terribly unlikely, you can win a pretty decent pot. If they don't, then, sure, they fold. But that seems better to me than letting QQ spike a Q for free. The one exception I'd make would be if an LP player does like to bluff at a flop like that with a pot-sized bet. Only then (and maybe that was the case) do I like the check-call.

The way I'd play that board (please critique) is bet out there with his hand (any 99) or any 6, but I would go ahead and check 66. Ok, if I were playing with players so often that we both had very detailed reads, I might mix in a check-call (or perhaps better: check-raise) on A6 or 69 once in a while because check-call (I actually think check-raise is better on quads, since you're looking either at a pure bluff or 99 if anyone bets) just obviously means quads on that line. But quads are a different story anyway, since you really do want them to fill up on you, regardless of its rank.

Anyhow, I think it's important to play 99 consistently with your play of A6 on that board, and on my view, that's betting it out.

Here's the line I think I'd play on that hand: Bet out the flop with 99, then check-raise any turn. If checked behind on the turn, then bet the river at maybe 3/4 pot. A caller is just going to have a 6 imo, which is a decent hand, and I think that hand will have difficulty laying down to 3/4 pot on the river--and hopefully will bet the turn.
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