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A novel, high-variance, EV PLO play

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A novel, high-variance, EV PLO play

Postby Felonius_Monk » Wed Mar 09, 2005 5:57 am

Quick hand I played yesterday. As always, the operation was a success but the patient died :D

I'll take you through each street. Comments welcome. This was a loose aggressive $100 PLO table at Ritz Club London.
I am sitting semi-short stacked as Crypto does not allow a rebuy until you have 80% of the max buyin or less; I usually rebuy at around 90-95% of a full stack.

------HAND 1------
Game #414954353: Omaha High Pot Limit ($0.50/$1) - 2005/03/08 - 23:05:31 (GMT)
Table "Bramble" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: branko ($119.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Trrtrtr ($101.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Cluedup ($126.47 in chips)
Seat 4: 2231 ($91.65 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO ($92 in chips)
Seat 6: mcmanus8 ($90.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Morph3us ($98.75 in chips)
Seat 8: Granger ($114 in chips)
Seat 9: jm24 ($29.50 in chips)
Seat 10: 2bginger sits out
Cluedup: posts small blind $0.50
2231: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO T[d] K[d] K[h] Q[s]
HERO: raises to $3.50

So here I am dealt a very decent hand UTG. I make the obvious raise.

mcmanus8: folds
Morph3us: folds
Granger: folds
jm24: raises to $8

This player was loose and seemed fairly mediocre. Hadn't seen him raise much, and this is for less than the pot. He was short stacked and I have a hand good enough to take him on for my stack if it comes to it.

2bginger sits back
branko: folds
Trrtrtr: folds
Cluedup: calls $7.50

This player was loose-aggressive and made a lot of small bets. He was fairly poor but got very lucky in this session and eventually ran up $700-odd before I beat him out of a $350 pot.

2231: calls $7

Had no read on this guy; he was a short stack. Think he was quiet-ish and so not especially loose.

HERO: raises to $12.50

This needs a bit of explanantion; the pot is 4-handed and so my hand is realistically not going past the flop without significant help (a big draw with KK overpair and/or a set of kings) with this much opposition.

However, my hand figures to be a money favourite against 3 other players (it is very difficult for me to be much below 25% pot equity 4-handed with this holding, though as you'll see that actually was the case!). My bet is merely increasing the size of the pot so if the flop brings a big draw there's money to be chased, and if I hit a K I can get all in with the nuts.

The other alternative is that the original re-raiser with the short stack has AA; this would of course be a bad thing for me BUT if he does he is nigh on certain to go all in here. This means that the betting is re-opened and I can get the other two players (who by this point are nearly pot-committed) all in with hands which I am liable to be well ahead of. Because we all likely have high-orientated hands, I figured that most or all of the aces would be accounted for, and thus that my KK will win the sidepot if the short stack goes all in with AA in the event that neither large stack hits the board very hard. If they have holdings including the likes of QQ, TT or medium-high wrap type things (QJJT etc) then I actually have them dominated. If any of them hold an ace with AA in the hand of the short stack, then that is practically a dead card in their hand. This pot could easily by won by not very much. I made the raise small enough to be inconsequential if they all call, but crucially reopen the pot for the small stack to get all in; it's even possible that the small stack player has a weaker hand than mine and will raise me back; and even against dry aces I still hold easily enough pot equity to make it +ve EV to play against him with some dead money in the pot with the other two players.

jm24: raises to $29.50 and is all-in
Cluedup: calls $21.50
2231: calls $21.50

Well, looks like he took the bait and bumped it all in. If I raise and force out the other two limpers, well It's cost me a lot to play against a likely better hand (AA) heads up, but the dead money in the pot will have made up for it. However, if jm24 DOES have aces (which it appears he must) then my hand has to be a money favourite in the sidepot, which will be approaching $190. I could actually be dominating against two other hands with mid-high cards, and all I need is 50% equity in the sidepot to get my money back from the start of the hand, in EV terms, if both players call.

So I take a deep breath and push.

HERO: raises to $92 and is all-in
Cluedup: calls $62.50
2231: is all-in $62.15
----- FLOP ----- 3[d] 3[h] T[h]
----- TURN ----- 3[d] 3[h] T[h] J[c]
----- RIVER ----- 3[d] 3[h] T[h] J[c] 4[d]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
HERO: shows T[d] K[d] K[h] Q[s] (Two Pairs, Kings and Threes, Jack high)
jm24: shows A[c] Q[d] A[d] 7[s] (Two Pairs, Aces and Threes, Jack high)
Cluedup: shows J[d] 9[d] 8[c] J[h] (A Full House, Jacks full of Threes)
2231: shows 8[h] K[c] 9[c] 9[s] (Two Pairs, Nines and Threes, Jack high)
Cluedup collected $0.70 from Side pot #2
Cluedup collected $186.45 from Side pot #1
Cluedup collected $115 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $305.15 Main pot $115 Side pot #1 $186.45 | Side pot #2 $0.70 | Rake $3
Board [3d 3h Th Jc 4d]
Seat 1: branko folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Trrtrtr (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Cluedup (small blind) showed [Jd 9d 8c Jh] and won ($302.15) with A Full House, Jacks full of Threes
Seat 4: 2231 (big blind) lost
Seat 5: HERO lost
Seat 6: mcmanus8 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Morph3us folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Granger folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: jm24 lost

Well there's the result. I lost a big pot. How's my play though? Well... The fact that my flush draw was trumped by the AA player plus all the Q's, K's J's and 9's out meant my equity in the main pot was horrendously low (15% or so) BUT I was 100% correct about my estimation of the larger sidepot - here I have nearly 60% of the three-handed equity.

Overall my EV for the main pot was $17, for the sidepot was $108. My total EV was therefore $125, from an original input of $92; that's a $33 EV profit on the hand.

Of course, if i'd merely called the re-raise (which to be honest I usually would) I would have lost much less on this hand. What my expected profit on the hand was by calling the $4 I don't really know. My play was certainly unusual (reopening the betting so I could get two large stacks in) and it's a play I very occasionally make with hands like this when the conditions are right. Usually I like short stacks in the game because when you have a spot like this (or when you have AA), you can often make a re-raise of their raise to put them nearly all in on the flop; when they reopen the betting by moving in, you can force out opponents or get most of your stack in with the best hand. This was a very marginal spot to apply that play, however, but with a very large BR I can absorb the variance. Next time hopefully I'll win!

The rather fortunate player who hit his jack to win this big pot went on a run of huge hands, though I eventually took a biggie off him as I picked up a beautiful turn and was able to put in with a quality re-draw with the nut straight and only real redraw... one of my ten outs hit, and I won a $350-odd pot. He was spliiting and had no redraw outs; he actually called a raise preflop with an awful hand and got himself in trouble as a result.

Anyways, any questions/thoughts on the play in this hand? I think it's an arguable and quite interesting one, I use this technique preflop on occasions, usually in more clear-cut positions (i.e. with AAxx), but here I felt it was quite a fun little play.

Watch out for short stacks in your games, who can reopen the betting for you! Remember also that some sites (and all B&Ms) won't allow this play because raising an "incomplete" bet is usually not allowed.

Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby euri10 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 6:15 am

I think your position UTG is not that good to make that reraise after the short stack is allin
as u said the other 2 if loose/gambler are quite pot commited so I don't really see the point in re raising.
you said yourself omaha is a game of decisions u make on every street, and u have not to transform it into an all in contest.
i think your first reraise is very good, you don't want to play against 4 people.
but imho when u have 2 callers after the 29.5 reraise of the AA guy, I don't see any point in going all in.
easy now that I know their hands but I'd like to gamble a lot being so much pot comitted with any of their hands.
the reasoning about the +ev on the side pot is good also, but in the meantime they do not fold, why would they do it now ? If they do not fold they have an hand that is playable in this situation no ?
I cried because I had no draw, until I met a man with no pair>>>MVSPORTS
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Wed Mar 09, 2005 6:39 am

They do, but I have a better one. That's the whole point. If we assume the all in guy has AAxx then I am liable to be at least 50% on the sidepot, against two oppontents. To put this into context, against two opponents with 66 and 99, AA is about 60% to win in holdem. Here, once the short stack is all in, it woldn't be smart to go to a flop having played the way I had since my hand is liable not to be in particularly good shape. If it comes something like 33T and I bet they will both likely fold, and I will lose to AAxx usually. As it was, I could get my last $65-odd into a pot against two opponents where I knew if both called I would be a money favourite. At this point there's no reason not to raise with the best hand, IMO. If I was going to just call here, I should not have put in the second raise and should merely have called when it was cheap and seen a flop. Having engineered a spot where I know neither tall stack has AA, and where I know a lot of the high cards are distributed around the 16 cards shared between us, I know my KK hand is liable to be winning against the other two tall stacks, and that there is a very good chance it is a significant favourite.

The only reason I made that small re-raise preflop was to gauge if an AA was present in the hand of the small stack and, if so, to be able to make a big all in against the tall stack players with my hand that was likely to be OK for the whole thing but very good for the sidepot. As a 60% (nearly) favourite on the sidepot I guess this part of the play worked fine; just one of my opponents happened to catch his out!

You are quite right about the decisions thing, normally I would not play this hand like this at all, but it was a slight change in my play style, helps make a more aggressive game, and I was able to get a +ve EV move out of it, so in all those respects it was pretty cool. With two guys losing out, they're possibly going to be on tilt, and with a big pot suddenly generated the game (and the guy who won this pot!) seemed to go into hyper-maniac mode... I actually made a lot more money than I lost out of this guy calling a gutshot against my wrap with an overpair... he hit his gutshot but it gave me the same straight with a set, we got all in and my set turned into quads on the river :D

Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby euri10 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:53 am

mm I like your argumentation BUT
I'll try t be advocate of the devil here :twisted:

let's run 2dimes on the side pot, because I think it's here the central point, everybody should be ok to say short stack has AA :)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=818565
pokenum -mc 500000 -o td kd kh qs - jd 9d 8c jh - 8h kc 9c 9s
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kd Td Kh 300208 60.04 199468 39.89 324 0.06 0.601
8c Jd 9d Jh 90918 18.18 378543 75.71 30539 6.11 0.212
9s Kc 9c 8h 78032 15.61 391126 78.23 30842 6.17 0.187

So your feelings are indeed confirmed, you're a huge favorite to win this side pot

But let's make some tricky things to your opponents holdings.
Imagine a second that the guy with K998 doesn't have an 8 but a K :twisted:
that would mean he played his stack for KK99ss which is possible imo...
Franckly I'm not sure the way he played he couldn't have this hand.. no ?
wahooo WTF !

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=818567
pokenum -mc 500000 -o td kd kh qs - jd 9d 8c jh - ks kc 9c 9s
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kd Td Kh 76641 15.33 246458 49.29 176901 35.38 0.330
8c Jd 9d Jh 130294 26.06 369706 73.94 0 0.00 0.261
Ks 9s Kc 9c 116164 23.23 206935 41.39 176901 35.38 0.409

his 2 pairs becomes a slight favorite against you....

let's go more tricky :)
Obviously the 9 in hand blocks the pair of nines of hand 3...so if instead of 9 let's use an 8 in his hand, even if the third 8 is already in hand 3 ...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=818582
pokenum -mc 500000 -o qs kd td kh - 8c jd 8d jh - 9s kc 9c 8h
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kd Td Kh 253445 50.69 245981 49.20 574 0.11 0.507
8c Jd 8d Jh 110827 22.17 389173 77.83 0 0.00 0.222
9s Kc 9c 8h 135154 27.03 364272 72.85 574 0.11 0.271

you're still favorite against ur 2 opponents but not that much compared to your previous 60%...

and finally mix the 2 approches :! let's shuffle and simulate !

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=818581
pokenum -mc 500000 -o qs kd td kh - 8c jd 8d jh - 9s kc 9c ks
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kd Td Kh 71668 14.33 294193 58.84 134139 26.83 0.277
8c Jd 8d Jh 150608 30.12 349392 69.88 0 0.00 0.301
Ks 9s Kc 9c 143585 28.72 222276 44.46 134139 26.83 0.421

well what an underdog situation :::)

would it mean that 2 pairs are favorite vs drawing hands in all in preflop situations ? !!
I cried because I had no draw, until I met a man with no pair>>>MVSPORTS
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