Yeah, and I still think Stone is under-estimating the number of times deep stack has the nut flush. At the Stars $100 game, it seemed to me like this wasn't terribly unusual--as well as the ability of UTG to lay down to the raise if he doesn't have it.

Obviously having no read on this particular opponent, I'd put the percentages more like at 5% (which may be optimistic, but should be close enough) for winning both pots, maybe 50% on winning the side pot if UTG calls/raises, and a 50% chance that UTG folds his loser. I also figure that UTG is ahead close to 30% of the time here (and on the 70% where he is behind, he folds half).

If the probabilities are like that, I have absolutely no doubt that it's -EV (without figuring it up).

Yeah, Stone, one thing I did want to say: While I think the winning frequency for UTG has to be extremely low and the calling frequency with losers extremely high for it to show a profit... IF you're sufficiently on top of things to "know" ("have that feeling," whatever you want to call it when you're just certain about something) that he's behind and will call, then I think it's a good play. Those feelings are almost always right.

But I really would only do it having that specific feeling about this specific player--and not on the basis of the general opinion that everyone is just really bad in that game.