$200 PLO on UB. Both have full stacks. Opponent in the hand is a regular, who has been spotted in the highest available games. I don't know whether he is a great player, but he is around for quite some time and recently has been doing well in the big game. I'm not sure what brings him to the lower stakes; either there are no good games for him or he wants a break... In a full ring he plays tight aggressive, and is not afraid to bluff big. He is only playing one table at a time most of the time, so he should have a read on me. Most likely, he perceives me as a TAG as well. We've played quite a few sessions before, although we haven't had many direct confrontations.

The hand: I get KK33 in LP, and raise to $10 after a few limpers. Opponent is the only caller. Flop comes 348 rainbow. He checks, I bet pot ($30), he checkraises pot. What do you do? Obviously, a call is going to commit you, so it's either push or fold.

Some more or less relevant thoughts:
1) he will call the preflop raise with quite a wide range of hands; we both have a full stack, he thinks I'm aggressive, so that he has some implied odds. He can have anything from AAxx to a wrap-type hand.
2) this is a typical garbage flop and he expects me to have missed completely. From his point of view, I have an overpair at best, although he should know that I raise in LP with more than just AAxx and KKxx.
3) If his checkraise is not a complete bluff, then he is either miles behind with some 2 pair hand, or miles ahead with a higher set. The only other hand I can see him make this play with is with a wrap straight draw.

How often do you think he is on a complete bluff? Do you think you are ahead enough times to make pushing +EV?

Results later.

Pieter

Legggggggggy?

Anyway most good PLO players, even the loose ones (like myself) shy away from medium to low pairs, so with that I don't think he has 44xx or 88xx unless he has two pair in the pocket, or some nice connectors with them (like 4456 or 6788). So basically what I'm saying is I think he has something like 3456, 567x or an overpair/random bluff cause he puts you on just an overpair enough so that its worth the push. It should be noted that the fact that you have KK here is not something to completely ignore, if he does have a higher set this triples your outs to suckout which is very nice. I prolly wouldn't be raising KK33 after limpers, but to each his own.

Results? Who was it? Was it Leggggggy? YorchelGuap? DONT LEAVE ME HANGING LIKE THIS!

Lol, neither of them; it was stockton
You were close; I did push in, since I had a feeling he figured that I missed the flop. However, he had 889T for top set, and I was toast...

It's pretty marginal. I would pussy out against a lot of players but there's a few I know well who I'd be prepared to push against. More often than not I let this go I think. Of course, if the stacks are any shallower it becomes a much easier one to push in. I like xaston's analysis really, though you should never discount the possibility that someone has a hand like 88 in PLO, limped and called a raise - there's a LOT of sidecards for 88 (somewhat less for 44) that a decent player will see a flop with, and the fact that the board is rainbow suggests there's fewer big draw/ decent draw + semi-bluff hands he could have (making the more obvious holding, the set, more likely).

Did you see this guy making brave moves/semi-bluffs at any point? I think you need a pretty solid read to push in here, probably one that suggests he's the sort who is savvy enough to know your likely range and try to put a play on you a reasonable percentage of the time.

As I said, we didn't have a huge history of attempts to outplay eachother, although I do have some notes that he likes to bluffraise the river if a scarecard hits and that he can drive-bluff his entire stack off (well, like any healthy PLO player loves to do). I think he would be capable to try a steal raise, but that would really depend on his perception of me, because that would be a play that only works against someone who has no trouble folding overpairs.
Of course I can't attach any precise numbers to it, but I would guess that in 30% this is a bluff, 30% he has a wrap-type hand, and the remaining 40% he has 88. It's going to be $160 for a $400 pot, so if these numbers are roughly ok, pushing is indeed marginal, although in hindsight it was a bit wild. Should keep him from bluffing at me though

Pieter