by Aisthesis » Sun Jun 12, 2005 12:18 am
Well, good Lord, MV, he'll play K9o to a raise!!! Why on earth wouldn't he play JT??
Also, I think one can distinguish acts from non-acts (again, Caro). I definitely can with most of the players, actually. This guy wasn't saying a word. He was just really nervous.
You're quite right with the river situation, which is where it often occurs, but I've also seen it on the turn and on the flop, where you can get some equity out of it.
I've also noticed that the better players in my own game recognize that people who tell you things about their hands are actually usually honest about it (and recognize who at the table isn't).
Depending on your game and the perceptiveness of your opponents, I'd also be somewhat cautious about doing the chip-trick thing too often or saying "You have a set." The perceptive people in the game (if there are any, and at least in my game, there definitely are some) will catch on to it. This of course also depends on how frequently you're up against the same players, though, as well. I do think the goof-ball act has a lot of potential, even though it's not the poker persona I'm trying to cultivate. But I'd be very cautious about doing anything consistently that shows strength and or weakness (for me, I'm really working on just doing pretty much exactly the same thing every time I'm in a hand).
Opponents have come out several times against me with "He has QQ" or such after I raise, or "It must be AK" again. Just calculating in my head, I think they've been wrong about 75% of the time. But sometimes the board develops in such a way that I can use this information for profit. They really are putting me on that hand, and it gives me two opportunities to win: 1) The hand they put me on is very strong on the given board, 2) My real hand is very strong on the given board.
I actually think it's a mistake to say anything about one's own hand or to speculate about the hand of your opponent openly. If you talk during the hand, I think it's a lot better not to talk about hands at all but just to make some kind of irrelevant conversation (which also makes for a much more pleasant atmosphere as added bonus) or talk about past hands or the tournament that's coming up, whatever. I do think that the way in which people react to that kind of conversation can give you some valuable information about hand strength.
My current experiences on "examining the opponent": I'm really not trying to get a call or trying to elicit anything. Generally, I really don't care much whether I get a caller or not. If I do, I'm still fairly happy with my bet (usually), and, if I don't, I win the hand 100%. I'm just striving to do the same thing every time and, with observation vs. staring off into space, I just feel like I get more information. I just have trouble BEING observant without APPEARING to be observant.
Again, a couple of examples: First, an older regular who flopped a straight flush not too long ago. He put on a fairly calm weakness act the whole way through that was actually pretty good. At the time, I only thought he MIGHT have a monster on the basis of his acting. And he successfully got callers with all his chips in the middle by the river. But the act wasn't very big. (this was a hand I wasn't in)
Second, a guy who thinks he's really great about deception who did a whole routine about "I don't think you have the flush" and all that. I KNEW he had a monster (again, I wasn't in this hand), and, sure enough, he turns over a boat at showdown.
A third one, where the actors set themselves up perfectly (a hand I was in): Same guy who thinks he's such a great actor (and indeed is one of the better players in the game) has been talking about how much he loves raising me and all this kind of stuff (he had in fact only had the guts to do it once before this and simply got me to lay down an unimproved AK). Well, I'm sitting on TT in SB, and we're down to about 7 players, all of whom are in the hand. I was actually thinking of raising here, but the table saw me thinking and was assuming I was about to fold. So, they came with, "Oh, come one, we've got a family pot here." So, I thought I'd just complete with some pretty decent chances due to the deception they'd already given me.
Well, delightfully, the flop comes QT3. So, I just bet it out fairly calmly. Now, one guy says jokingly, "Damn, why did you have to play your SB there?" And, even better, Mr. Deception raises me. Well, since he'd been talking so much about this, which happened fairly slowly, I went with "Are you really raising me?" And he says something like, "Well, the chips are out there, so I guess I am." So, I just say, "All-in" (having him covered). He calls with Q3 and loses his stack. Now, he might have called anyway with that hand, but I actually doubt it if he hadn't set himself up so nicely with the chit-chat. Basically, he thought he had set me up to move in with something like AQ or KQ and had me beat. Under purely normal circumstances, I think he would have raised but not called my all-in.