A hand from the $1000 Project. Sometimes I wonder if I overplay trips -- esp. against decent players. I've written what I was thinking during the hand. Any and call comments and critiques are welcome.

The Cast

SB - All of his chat just said "Heeeeee Haaaaaw". Over 80% VPIP and was a massive CS. Had built up a big stack, but it was rapidly dwindling. He ended up going busto.

BB - A little loose preflop (mid-30s over about 100 hands), but not too bad. His W$SD is about 65%, but that doesn't mean much with this few hands. He's a big winner over the small sample I have. Again, doesn't mean that much. Otherwise, seems pretty solid.


The Hand

Preflop - I frequently open raise with this kind of hand from MP or later. I figured that SB would call, my hand would be better than his, and I would have position. I wasn't that happy that button called, but I wasn't sad either.

Flop - Great flop for me. I bet, thinking that the SB calling station will donate. When I get CRed, I think for a few seconds. Villain seemed to be decent. This was the approximate range I had him on - 70% same trips w top kicker, 15% same trips worse kicker, 15% boat. I figured I had a backdoor flush draw and a backdoor low draw, so I'd call and see what he did. I wanted to have some chips to bet in case I was checked to on the turn.

Turn - Well, I don't like the spade, but I like the low. OK, there's a good chance I'm freerolling here, calling is fine.

River - Fvck


Analysis - I'm not sure what the bet on the flop accomplished. Great, I could get hands I beat to fold, but I get put to the test by hands that beat me or tie me. Where's the value? On the other hand, I REALLY wanted to get some money from the SB CS. But when that didn't pan out, was a fold called for when I was raised? I don't really know.

I wonder if I should continue to take these kinds of coinflips against decent players in the challenge. This one wasn't quite crooked enough in my favor and villain wasn't quite bad enough for me to be happy. Thoughts?


Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $97.72
UTG+1: $99
MP1: $77.53
MP2: $135.67
Hero: $101.62
CO: $202.15
Button: $178.85
SB: $170.39
BB: $187.06

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, CO folds, Button calls $3.5 (pot was $5), SB calls $3 (pot was $8.5), BB calls $2.5 (pot was $11.5).

Flop: ($14, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $13.3, 2 folds, BB raises to $53.2, Hero calls $39.9 (pot was $80.5).

Turn: ($120.4, 2 players)
BB bets $117.4, Hero calls all-in $44.92.
Uncalled bets: $72.48 returned to BB.

River: ($210.24, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $210.24)


Results:
Final pot: $210.24
BB shows Ks Qc As 6h
Hero doesn't show Ah 4h Qd 7h

Flop
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1670305
pokenum -o8 ah 4h qd 7h - ks qc as 6h -- 5d qh qs
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs 5d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Qd Ah 7h 4h 176 221 239 360 168 36 0 0.509
As Ks Qc 6h 191 239 221 360 45 84 0 0.491

Turn
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1670307
pokenum -o8 ah 4h qd 7h - ks qc as 6h -- 5d qh qs 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Qs 3s 5d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Qd Ah 7h 4h 6 9 12 19 16 3 0 0.519
As Ks Qc 6h 7 12 9 19 3 11 0 0.481

after reading over this, i actually like my line and my reasoning (in this specific context).

i still welcome comments, though.

i won't talk about the preflop raise as i don't have much to say on it for plo8.

As for the flop, i don't see the point to waiting for the turn. you are committed if you call and i don't see him folding if he checks andyou bet your last 40 into a 120 pot. If you had more money, i think it matters. in this case, if you continue on the flop, nothing else matters.

I think if you are going to be first in with that hand then a raise is a smart play. You may get heads up with someone, you may take the blinds down. and you may get to show it down and let the thinking (ok, semi-thinking) players see that you will raise with something other than AAxx. For that reason I would have shown down at the end, but that's me.

I'd have played it the same way, especially when you pick up the low draw on the turn. The numbers back it up. I'd note that villain will overplay top trips, reload, and pop another beer open.

is it safe to assume that you would have folded the turn if a high blank hit?

Ok, let's say the had hit the turn instead of the river. Now I'd figure that I am drawing to 2 potential winning boat outs, if I put villain on the made boat in the first place of course. Will you call an all in there? It's roughly 40 to win 160, the odds are nice, but they're not 2 outer nice.

His calling if your PFR OOP would make me lean towards his having an A, so I'd be thinking that best case here I am going to split if he only has trips like I do. If I boat up on the river I figure an A is a split at best, and I guess you have to figure what the odds are that a 4 or 7 will get you top boat, not loser boat. There's also the chance that he has 55, maybe what, 15% of the time?

Does this math make sense? I'm sure I butchered the crap out of it since I haven't done one of these in a while.

40 to win 160 - 20% equity needed.

1 out (Q) to win 100% of the time - 1 x 1/40 = 2.5%
2 outs (A) to win maybe 20% of the time = .2 x 2/40 = 1%
6 outs (4,7) to win maybe 20% of the time - .2 x 6/40 = 3%
Split the other 40% of the time - .5 x 20% = 10%

Assuming he has no boat and 3 random cards that you don't have he'd have 9 outs to hit on the river - 20% of the time? .2 x 9/40 = 4.5% negative.

If I did this right, you have 16.5% positive equity minus 4.5% negative or 12% - not worth calling a high turn. That's not taking into account the flush cards that could win for him if he has 2 spades, but I'm offsetting that because a high heart on the turn would give you the same possible boost.

i didn't put him on the boat. i say this because he would need a very small subset of four-card hands to hit that boat -- A25Q or A255 (sub A3 for A2 if you want). he was pretty tight when calling raises, and i don't think he'd call with something janky that hit the boat on that flop.

the most likely hand i put him on was a high-oriented hand with an ace (like he had). as such, i'd be less worried about a 9 or T. a J or a K (likely holdings with a Q) are really the only cards that would give me serious thoughts about folding -- again depends on the suit. if it's a spade or diamond, then i think i probably fold.

all of this is factored into the 15-15-70 split that i mentioned before. i thought it was just as likely that he had something like QKxx (i.e., no Ace) as much as the boat.

fwiw, most of the people behind me usually folded to raises. sorry... wasn't clear on that.