by Felonius_Monk » Mon Mar 07, 2005 8:32 am
That was not your flop, I'm afraid. That J9 on there is smack bang in the middle of the likely range of cards that would be smooth calling your relatively large raise on the flop; you have no draw and only an overpair (admittedly a good one). A hand like two pair with a draw of some sort is beating you very badly here. With three players left to bet its almost impossible for you to be winning outright here; if you've any chance of winning the pot outright with your bet it's more worthwhile (even against a set at least you have 4 nut outs), but I really feel against 3 opponents your chances of having the best hand and your chances of folding away everyone else are likely to be slim to none. I think you should've given up on the flop.
On the turn there's a chance he is playing a big wrap draw and thus that your hand is ahead, so betting here is fine. If you're going to call that $7.50 (which I assume you are) you might as well go ahead and bet it. Most of the money went in on the flop so the turn play is fairly unimportant. You still had 10 outs against 2 pair, and are favourite over a draw.
You really want to avoid over-valuing AA hands on bad flops. Any flop that brings a pair to the board above about a 5, two cards in the mid-high region, a mid/low straight-making board, two non-ace broadway cards, or two suited connecting cards, are usually pretty much death for unimproved aces. I tend to only bet pot again with AAxx if I have an overpair to a VERY uncoordinated board and am checked to (Q73 rainbow etc), if I am heads up with a fairly uncoordinated board or against a tight player, if I catch my ace (obviously) and there's a draw out, or if the board has given me a flush draw with my ace as an overpair (Kh 7h 4c with AAxx two hearts), or occasionally if there's a low pair out and the field is short and relatively tight (Q33etc.).
Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]
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