Heres a hand I played last night at Full Tilt Poker. Blinds are $1/$2
I open raise to $8 from MP with [Qc]. Its folded to the BB who calls.
The pot is $17 and the flop comes [Qd][Jh]. He leads out for $10. I raise to $30. He reraises all in to $100. Its $70 to me with a pot of about $150. This guy is not very good. He could have anything from a pair and a draw, to a set, to [Jd] or even [Tc] for the flopped straight. He calls raises with weak aces and any 2 face cards.
Do you call or fold?

Only two hands to worry about JJ and KT... against a weak player I bite the bullet and pray I'm not drawing to four outs, but most likely the hand is good enough to play for all the money. I think even if you hate higher variance plays, that top two is too good to give up against a weak player, against a more solid player with looser raise calling standards calling would be tougher as I would expect to see KT or JJ most of the time.

I'm really cautious with [Qc] personally, but that's because I'm not mega-experienced, so "tight is right" usually prevails.

If I had [Qc] in MP, I'd be limping and looking to see if there was a raise (and possibly a reraise from someone limping with a big hand in EP). I prefer to know who is showing strength preflop rather than masking the strength by my own raise on what I consider to be a speculative hand.

If I had [Qc] in LP, I'd probably raise it from there, hoping to steal , hit the flop and bet, or miss the flop and get checked-to. I guess that's what you were doing, although I'm so tight I don't yet do it from MP.

I think this guy definitely knows you don't have KT, as you probably wouldn't have raised (or would you - I don't play $100 NL yet). I wouldn't call a raise with [Tc] or [Jc] out of position, but a looser player might, I suppose.

Unless this dude's stark raving BONKERS, he must rationally fear that you hit trips or two pair. Therefore I think he has top two pair [Kd], or bottom set [Jc] (as I would have expected him to reraise with [Qs] and up if he was loose).

If he thought about it a lot, he might think you probably have a set. But since it's hammered into players these days that 'if you don't lose your stack with a set every now and again, you're playing the set wrong', plus a lot of players can't control their betting, PLUS his best move is to go all-in anyway, right? - putting the pressure on you.

Personally I don't think he has [Jd] or [Tc]. With a flopped straight and no flush draw, a reasonable player would've called your raise and given you another card, no? Protecting a straight against a draw to a house? I doubt it.

My money goes on [Jc], then [Kd].

Hmmm,

AK: 16 combinations, <7 outs (including your redraws)
AJ: 12 combinations, 2 outs
QJ: 12 combinations, 2 outs
(I leave out AT and KQ, but they're possible too. I'd have thought AA and KK unlikely)

vs

KT, 32 combinations, 4 outs for you
QQ, 2 combinations, 2 outs for you
JJ, 6 combinations, 4 outs for you

With the pot laying 2:1, it's a call even if he would be unlikely to make the play with AK. That said, I've generally seen KT when I've made these calls (with AJ the rest of the time), especially against weak opposition.

Because the guy wasnt very good, I thought it was likely that he would call a raise and make a play like this with any of these hands:
I beat....AJ, AK, QJ
Im losing to KT, JJ
I wasnt really worried about AA or QQ.
He could also have a pair and draw like KQ or AT.
Because I was geting 2-1 on my money, I called and unfortunately he had KT.

I would call as well. Most "bad players" wouldn't lead out and reraise KT so aggressively in this spot. That was actually a very good play by him and made it look like a must-call.

Iceman --

I think a call is in order. His play is only plausible in the following scenerios after the AQJ rainbow flop:

Pure Bluff
JJ, QQ, AA
KT
AQ, AJ
AK, AT?
T9s?

That's where I think the possible hands end, because you said he was not very good. I'm basically dismissing T9s and AT, but they're in the back of my head anyway. Same with QQ and AA because of the mathematical unlikelyhood.

If I'm you, I'm thinking I'm beat 90% of the time that the guy has JJ, KT, and some unlikely hands, I win about 80% of the time he has something like AK and about 90% of the time he has something like AJ or Ax.

Do you think this guy has JJ and KT 66% of the time? I don't. I think he would make this play with AK thinking it was a clever semibluff, i have to call him down.