Ok, see if this makes any sense or if I just got too cute. Villan was 29/1, so marginally tighter than the average stud player. Im showing trips. If he does not have at least 3 kings, he is going to fold anyway. If he has three kings he is going to read my check as just the three 7s and bet. If he has the flush, he is going to bet and fold to my raise. If he has kings full, I am going to make a lot of money. If he has 4 kings, I am going to lose a big pot and win a decent bad beat jackpot.

I guess it boils down to, does he bet the flush or trip kings enough times to make this +ev?

------HAND 4------
Game #2290922483: 7 Card FL ($1/$2) - 2006/08/22 - 01:11:31 (ET)
Table "Abbevill"
Seat 1: Juskimo ($75.75 in chips)
Seat 2: kopit ($86.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Ainokea ($21.75 in chips)
Seat 4: goeasy ($105.25 in chips)
Seat 6: DrBooze ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 7: Entombed ($46.75 in chips)
Seat 8: WhiskyGuy ($65.25 in chips)
kopit: posts the ante $0.25
goeasy: posts the ante $0.25
Entombed: posts the ante $0.25
Juskimo: posts the ante $0.25
WhiskyGuy: posts the ante $0.25
Ainokea: posts the ante $0.25
DrBooze: posts the ante $0.25
----- 3rd STREET -----
dealt to Juskimo [5h 7h 7c]
dealt to kopit
dealt to Ainokea
dealt to goeasy
dealt to DrBooze
dealt to Entombed
dealt to WhiskyGuy
Ainokea: brings-in $0.50
goeasy: folds
DrBooze: folds
Entombed: folds
WhiskyGuy: calls $0.50
Juskimo: raises $1
kopit: calls $1
Ainokea: calls $0.50
WhiskyGuy: calls $0.50
----- 4th STREET -----
dealt to Juskimo [5h 7h 7c][3h]
dealt to kopit [Jh]
dealt to Ainokea [9h]
dealt to WhiskyGuy [Ad]
WhiskyGuy: checks
Juskimo: bets $1
kopit: calls $1
Ainokea: folds
WhiskyGuy: calls $1
----- 5th STREET -----
dealt to Juskimo [5h 7h 7c 3h][7s]
dealt to kopit [8c Jh][Js]
dealt to WhiskyGuy [Ks Ad][2d]
kopit: checks
WhiskyGuy: checks
Juskimo: bets $2
kopit: folds
WhiskyGuy: calls $2
----- 6th STREET -----
dealt to Juskimo [5h 7h 7c 3h 7s][7d]
dealt to WhiskyGuy [Ks Ad 2d][Kd]
Juskimo: bets $2
WhiskyGuy: calls $2
----- RIVER -----
dealt to Juskimo [5h 7h 7c 3h 7s 7d][3c]
Juskimo: checks
WhiskyGuy: checks
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Juskimo: shows [7h 7c 7s 7d 5h 3h 3c] (Four of a kind, Sevens, Five high)
WhiskyGuy: mucks hand [Tc Td Ks Ad 2d Kd 2c]
Juskimo collects $16 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $16.75 Main pot $16 Rake $0.75
Seat 1: Juskimo showed [7h 7c 7s 7d 5h 3h 3c] and won ($16) with Four of a kind, Sevens, Five high
Seat 2: kopit folded on the 5th Street
Seat 3: Ainokea folded on the 4th Street
Seat 4: goeasy folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 6: DrBooze folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Entombed folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: WhiskyGuy mucked [Tc Td Ks Ad 2d Kd 2c]

-Jus