by tetsuo » Wed Nov 10, 2004 10:32 am
So he's not drawing to a straight (A2 or 56 seem very unlikely) or a flush.
Two pair is unimaginable with a board like that.
So the remaining options are AK, an overpair, or a set.
Since you were the preflop raiser and then bet into him, he must surely reasonably credit you with wired jacks, queens, kings, or AK.
By the preflop action, I would rule out AA and KK for him. So his likely holdings are AK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, 44 or 33.
If you check he is likely to bet. No matter what he bets, you are liable to call, as there doesn't seem to be enough information about his holding to believe for sure you are beat.
If you check, he might also take a free card, which you definitely don't want.
If you bet 'weakly' (half pot), you are pretty much pot committed anyway and must make a crying call if he raises. If he calls, you are pretty much none the wiser to his holding and he'll put the rest in on the river anyway, as you don't have enough left to put any pressure on him.
So for me the only answer is all-in.
I'm sure there are better strategies, but as a simple minded NL50 player, I can't think of any!