TK, you're absolutely right that there is no absolute correct answer to most of these kinds of situations. So much depends on how you read a particular player, how you evaluate your image at that particular table, how you think of yourself as a player and what your experienced instincts tell you to do at that particular moment.

I didn't mean to attack with that last post (if that's the reaction you had). Just thinking out loud (or thinking with my fingers or whatever applies) more than trying to debate any particular point. I was thinking, "If I were faced with this exact same situation again, what would I do?" And I decided that I would do the same damn thing, which satisfies me that I made a correct play.

A correct play, not THE correct play. There's a difference. This is one of those puzzles that I'd bet you'd get differing opinions if you put it to several of the top experts and players in the world. Sklansky might say it was a bad play because the numbers don't add up. Caro might say it was a good play because I read my opponent well. Harrington might say it depends on where the second hand on my watch was pointed (that will make perfect sense if you read his excellent book -- he says that if you want to employ a particular play, say, 20% of the time, there's no need to keep count; just know that the second hand on your watch is between :48 and :00 20% of the time, so look at your watch before you decide).

As far as the RCG, I don't have a clue. On the surface, it seems far-fetched. But maybe I'll see the light some time when I'm more motivated to think about it.

Oops. My bad. I hit submit twice on the previous post.

TexasKowboy,

I am one of the math guys and let me try to explain this. No card is more likely to show on the board with a frozen deck or a reshuffled deck. I could go through the calculations but I feel that another argument might help just as much. With your argument wouldn't also a 7 be more likely to hit with a reshuffle? Or a 9? In fact you could repeat your argument for every card and it would be more likely to hit. This must clearly be wrong. Hence the argument is flawed. The ace is not more likely to hit online compared with B&M.

I have no B&M experience but if the beats are more common online wouldn't the reasonable explanation be that the average player online is worse than the player in a B&M casino.

/CipherJr

I'd drop it.....50/50 you are crippled/OOTM....you have a good lead...don't think he does this move with less than a coinflip...although he could be stealing w/ a low PP....

p.s. odds are odds, shuffle or no shuffle provided both instances are random....

I just like stirring crap. Hope I made some of you think and I am still waiting on the odds before I conceed.

what is the formula?

6 outs if your playing AK in one of 5 spots placed just right in a 8 card group with 32 cards in the deck X 1

The other formula?

6 outs X 5 chances out of 32 cards that one of those 6 is the top card?

Come on K3nt. I know you know this one.

Is the answer the same?

Mainly I am just tired of Ax knocking me out when I have either PP or play something like KQ and hit the flop only to lose on the turn or river to some guy that won't lay his ace down.

Well fishy, we got 'em stirred up this time---LOL Your above post (the CORRECT play) was what I was trying to say, although your writing was much more clear and lucid than my own...I really think this is still a very close coin flip situation, and read dependent as well... People still assume the guy has a hand...

Bottom line---I call...(most the time LOL)
Great thread....