yeah those are pretty small sample sizes. what is a marginal winner in ptbb/100?

Got some sleep and felt more focused today. Happy with my play; it wasn't flawless, but pretty strong. The more I play and think about my play and poker in general, the more I think this game is far more about psychological control than it is about poker knowledge. You can know what to do, but can you do it when it comes up? I got stacked a couple times when I moved up to 100NL on overpairs. In the cold light of day, I see that I have to fold those hands, but in the heat of the moment, I stack off. I know what I have to do, but can't. Why? Lack of mental discipline.

I took a step towards gaining that discipline this afternoon. Sitting on $58 or so I had and raise it $2.50 utg; only the button, who has me covered, calls.
Flop: ($5.75)
I bet $5 and he pushes in. I want to call this, really, REALLY bad. Part of me is shouting bluff, but the disciplined part of me says, "So what if this guy is bluffing the nutflush draw. Why do you need to call? Could have a set and then you're in terrible shape. Even if he is drawing you only win 2 of 3." I don't even run my time down. I let it go. And to tell you something, it felt good. Strangely good. I just let it go. I don't have to win this hand. This guy challenges me, and I just let it go. No problem. I do think he was bluffing the draw, but maybe he had nothing. My image at the table was rockish, so he may have been thinking I had AA, and didn't think I could lay it down. I dunno, but strangely, I'm not that worried about this hand. I've already moved on, and that feels pretty good too.

Stats for the day:
50NL
531 hands
$52.30

$0.50/1 (limit)
170 hands
$22.40

Marginal winner at 1.5ptbb/100. There I said it. Actually, just looked, it was less, 1.41ptbb/100. Losing rate at 50NL was -1.84 ptbb/100. So, that was some confidence shaking poker. That's all full ring.

i havent played full ring in like 3 years, dont even know if i could do it. do you know what the average rate is for full ring 25nl for a livepokerforum player? 1.4 sounds pretty brutal, but its just not that many hands.

i think it would be cool to make a thousand dollar prop bet between xaston and shobute and h2t and godlike about who could have the highest ptbb over 10k hands at 25 or 50nl...it would be fun to watch these guys play the newbs at those limits.

There's a thread in the Poker Tracker forum here where....oh crap, I've forgotten now...someone....does a study on his database of 50NL and 100NL TAG's and sLAG's. It should be one of the first or second non-stickies, since someone recently revived it. At any rate, the TAG's peak around 5.5 ptbb/100. I'm definitely TAG, so if I manage to be at or around that, I should be pretty happy. I think those stats are for FR, so probably different in 6 max.

I was too tired to post last night, more on that later. It was a roller coaster of a ride yesterday at all levels, so I have several hands to post. First one happens on the first hand of the day. LP raises to $1.50 and LAG in SB calls. I call in BB with .
Flop: ($4.50)
SB bets $1, I call and LP raises to $3, SB calls, I push. Thoughts here. LAG has nothing, but he might be drawing at the flush, and if so, I want him gone since my flush will be no good. I suspect LP is donking up a big pair here, but I've got 14 (maybe 12 if LAG has the flush draw) outs, which makes us about a coinflip. If he has somehting like QQ or JJ, he may lay this down, giving me some fold equity, or he may have simply felt compelled to raise AK, but couldn't bring himself to do so with a big raise, so fold equity there. He calls and LAG folds. He shows me two of my outs black Aces. I don't catch and I'm down $50.

So the plan was move up to 100NL if I had a winning session, but starting down a buy in usually is bad for winning, so I resign myself pretty quickly to needing to put together another win streak. I'm at a table with an $80 stack and a new guy sits down posting the blind in EP rather than waiting. He then plays the pot super aggressive, pushing in on the river. I suspect lagtard. He has a $74 stack and is in the BB. Two limpers to me; I'm OTB w/ and bump it to $3. BB calls, other guys fold.
Flop: ($7.25)
He bets $2, I call here. My reasoning: I normally raise this, but since I believe him to be lagtard, I suspect a reraise will give me a difficult decision. I just want to see the next card then reevaluate based on his betting.

Turn: ($11.25)
He bets $6, I raise to $25. I'm thinking that this is big enough to induce a push over the top if he is bluffing. The only hand I'm worried about is KJ, and I doubt he has it. At any rate he pushes in, I call. He shows me and the other two jacks fail to hit the river. Tidy $74 net on that hand, and it pushes me to a big win for the session, overcoming the missed straight flush from the first hand.

On to 100NL. Not much has been happening for me thus far, when I pick up two aces in the BB. Folds to BTN who raises $3, SB folds, I call. Flop comes ragged with J high. I check, he bets $5, I raise to $15, he reraises. I call, check to him on turn and he pushes. I call he shows AJ and I take the pot.

I have OTB and the CO limps in, I raise to $4.50, SB and CO both call.
Flop: ($14.50)
Checks to me, I bet $10, SB now raises to $25, CO folds. Warning sires going off in my head, but I ignore them. I call. Turn is a blank and he puts me in. I call off my stack to his set of fives.

I have in the BB. MP miniraises to $2, one LP caller and me.
Flop: J x x ($6.50)
I lead for $4, MP raises to $15, LP folds, I call.

Turn is a 2 or 3 ($36.50)
I check he bets $20, I push in for $50 more to him, which he calls, showing me QQ, but I suck out a J on the river to save my donkey ass.

First session a winner through the luck of the river. These three hands made it pretty obvious to me that you cannot put your money in the middle with tp/tk hands. That's fine at 50NL, but people just aren't bad enough to pay off with weaker hands at this level. There are the occasional bad players who will, but the general play at this level requires better hands. The AQ hand, I just have to listen to myself and fold at least the turn. The AJ hand, his big raise on the flop has to tell me he's donked up a big pair.

Second session had very little excitement. I raise then value bet the flop and everyone folds. I raise, miss the flop and c-bet then get called or raised. I lost one medium sized pot, when my nutflush failed to hit, but aside from that just basic stuff, running badly in terms of when others catch a flop and I miss. I noticed I was getting frustrated and loosening up my starting hand requirements, so I walked.

I still wanted to play though, so a few minutes later I started some .50/1 limit tables. These began with one horrendous beat after another. Comically bad, then just infuriating. I was wallowing in the misery of a bad run thinking about how unlucky I was when I sort of stepped back, saw myself doing this, and said, "What is this doing for you? Shut the hell up, get over it, and play some poker." I listened to myself. I shut the hell up and concentrated. This is where things get interesting. Some guy by the screen name of CHAxxxCEO sits down at two of the tables I'm playing. On one he buys in for 20K and on the other for 15K. This causes quite a stir. One guy says this is Calvin Aire's son, who knows. What can I tell you about this guy other than that he is the reason why I got unstuck. He raised every hand. If there was a bet in front he would 3 bet; just didn't matter. I like him, any time he wants to play again I'm all for it. He loosens up the game and people get in the pot just trying to bust him. I won a few pots off him, but mainly he just helped me get it capped preflop. This led to me winning monster pots, such as a $20 pot with KK, which somehow held up against 4 hands. My friend was decent post flop, to tell the truth, so basically just a maniac preflop. Now I stayed at the tables as long as I could maintain a B-game. As I was sitting at my chair watching the minutes go by I was reminded of stories by pros of sitting in games for 24+ hours. I cannot do that. I wimped out eventually and went straight to bed. Damn this old man's stamina. So quite a ride for the day.

Stats:
50NL
195 hands
$47.70

100NL
405 hands
-$27.50

.50/1 Limit
351 hands
$33.40

I made my biggest cash ever in a session and I felt very, very dirty. Had my money in with the worst of it twice and sucked out both times. I'm really not used to that. I generally have the best of it and it's me who has to deal with the bad beat. So, big win, but I don't feel good about it or my play. Second session I lose money, but not a big loss. To be honest, I feel lost at the moment. When I sit at the 50NL tables, I really don't care who is at the table, because I think I'm the best player. When I'm sitting at these 100NL tables, i just feel like a damn fish. I put together a win at one table but lose at the other two. The level of play is quite a bit better, but I should be winning money at this level, just watching the general play here. I'm hoping that thus far it is just variance, buit it's starting to gnaw at me. I played limit this evening largely because I just didn't feel very confident about my NL game. That went unwell as I gave 1/2 a try and was welcomed with repeated suck outs. I put in a marathon session and finally managed to get unstuck for second session of limit but not overall. 1/2 is qually as bad as .50/1, so I think I may play that level from now on, though this is the weekend, so tonight's play could be an exaggeration.

Stats:
100NL
371 hands
$122.41

1/2
843 hands
-$7.19

What can I say? Sunday is my day. Don't sit at the table with me because your pairs will not set up against my big pairs. I was sort of on edge throughout the afternoon session today, but won a small amount. Tonight's session however, my reads were spot on. I induced and picked off several bluffs. I think maybe only one small mistake tonight. One good laydown I made would have turned into a big winner, but I would have felt like a donkey, so I don't count it as a mistake. Afternoon session, I played very tight and after a bit, no one would call my preflop raises. So I opened up a bit and stole some blinds, but still pretty small winner. One big hand from tonight, which was read dependent; I'll post it below. One medium pot that I stole on a second barrel bluff when I read OP for a mid PP and "knew" he would fold to the second barrel. A second medium pot I stole floating flop and stealing on the turn when he checked.

So here's the big hand. Villiian has $79 and I cover. I have in MP and everyone limps in as do I; guy to my left raises to $8.50; two limpers call and I call.
Flop: ($37)
Checks to the raiser who bets $20 and it folds to me. This bet looks weak to me. I think...and think...and push. He calls and I think I'm beat. But he has , lol.

Turn is a and I glare at the screen. Magically the Bodog random card generator, fearful of my glare exchanges the for a blank and I take the pot. That hand basically gave me a ton of confidence and I played very well for the remaninder of the night.

I limp utg with AK all ready to make the Excession limp-push play, but a tight player raises it up substantially and I fold. He had KK and got some shorty's stack. Had I made the Excession play I would have turned the wheel, which would have made me feel like a donkey. Still would have been sweet as he had a full stack.

Stats for the day at 100NL
413 hands
$174.33

Current Bankroll: $1812

Felt very comfortable at the tables today, as in my normal comfortable feeling at 50NL, but now at 100NL. I played my normal game and ended the day with a modest, make that very modest win, but couple bad beats are to blame for that. I think this level may stick more or less. I'm playing well, and feeling good. Rough transition, however, but sort of working my way out of it and I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We'll see how tomorrow goes, but if that turns out well, then I think I'll post stats from 50NL. I have roughly 9K hands, a little over. That's a little under what I consider a minimum sample size, so I'm going to wait and see if 100NL treats me badly and sends me back down.

Bankroll-wise, it didn't really hit me last night, but I've got over 1800 dollars. Bodog is running some promo right now to turn points into cash (which you have to clear through earning more points of course) and I think I have enough points to get $30. Once that's cleared, I can do the ole cash out redeposit for another $100. Should I manage to win some money in the meantime. I could be looking at 2K by the end of the week. Chump change to some, but sort of a milestone to me. I'll celebrate with a beer or something. Yeah, let's make that my goal for the week.

On to today's play. $40 swing when shortstack's 88 sucked out a runner-runner gutshot to crack my aces. Seriously, just give him the set; I don't need that running card crap. In my last orbit of the afternoon session new player, who posts miniraises. I have and pop to $6, miniraiser calls.
Flop: ($13.50)
He checks, I bet $13, he now raises to $26. Okay so he's got a big hand here, but better than mine? Highly unlikely that he has AA or QQ, so 77 is the only hand I'm really worried about here. More likely with that miniraise that he has A7s and thinks he's good. I put him in. He thinks and calls with Turn card brings the and I don't catch my 4 outs to resuck on the river. That was one buyin. I can't get too upset with his call. He almost had enough odds to call just for the flush. He's got to think there's a chance he's drawing to the 3 8's as outs, so okay call by him, I guess. I'm pretty sure I fold it.

Stats for 100NL
626 hands
$12.67

Cold decked pretty badly in the first session, which made for a big loss. I had one relapse into the former calling station me, which cost me $80. No need to revel in it. I knew he had 2 pair, but....eh. He made a FH on the river for good measure. Had AK and got beat by AJ. Had TT on a flop of unders and ran into JJ. On a positive note, I didn't lose all that much on those hands. And here's a seriously cold deck hand:
Folds to MP who raises to $5, I'm on the button and call with BB also calls. Flop comes ($15.50)
BB checks, MP bets $9, I call to see what BB does. He folds.

Turn
I don't need to go on here do I? He had the rockets and I got stacked.

Later sessions pretty blah. Was planning on playing a little 1/2 limit tonight, but kind of tired, so just heading to bed. I've had a real nice cold for the past three days and my head weighs just over a ton right now. As always, the stats for 100NL:
640 hands
-$66

Not a great day cardwise. Also my kid managed to smash his thumb at daycare. Real nice bruise going, fingernail is probably a gonner. So I tended to him most of the day as he was unconsolable at daycare. Sort of unusual for him as he seems to have a high pain threshold. Typically okay in 5 minutes, but this was well over half hour. Managed one session while he napped. Pretty cold my friends. Pretty cold. But on the plus side I folded, folded, folded my way to avoid losing any stacks when lessers, such as my former self just a week ago, would have done so. Very happy with my decisions, not so happy with the way the cards fell.

Decided to play some more 2/4 limit this evening and managed to get rocked at one table and to rock the other two tables. Ended with a minute profit. On the bad table, I had tp/gk with a flush draw v. AA. No catch for me. Same guy chased his gutshot to the river and caught. Had tp w/ OE and didn't catch in a big pot. Had nutflush draw and didn't catch in a big pot. Couple other OE's that didn't materialize. Lost ~$130 on that table alone. Made up for it though on the other two, getting quad aces paid off nicely. Guy didn't believe me and happily capped the river with me when his KQ finally made a pair. Careful what you wish for pal.

Back to the NL tables for some more pain. Usual stuff along with these two memorable hands. Short stack miniraises in EP, SB completes; I have AKo and pop to $8. Miniraiser calls, SB folds. Mini has about $36 left
Flop:
Nice, I put out 2/3 pot bet and he pushes in, I call, he shows and I fail to improve. Honestly, I chuckled this one was so bad. But on the inside I was pissed given my earlier whippings.

2 hands later, I haven't had a chance to reload, so sitting at ~$50. EP miniraises, couple callers. I call OTB w/ QQ. I usually pop, but still sort of reeling from the AK hand. Mr. 53s now pops to $10 and it folds to me. I push in. He thinks for a bit and calls w/ ATo. Flops a T but fails to finish me off.

100NL
430 hands
-$72.10

2/4 Limit
280 hands
$6.85

It's good to be back. Visited fam over the holidays, but the fam is low-tech, and I couldn't post anything. Would have posted the night before I left, but was far too tired. Decent haul in the gift department; mostly some money that will soon be spent on non-fun items . So anyway, I played 700 hands of limit on Friday night (12/22) trying to clear one last bonus at Bodog. I ran pretty badly, every freaking draw got there, but not till the river, and every freaking draw I had didn't, etc. etc., so I dropped over $100 playing 2/4 limit. I got sick of that and played some no limit, winning back $50 but still down for the day as I lost $60 earlier in the day. I finished that up around 2:30 am, so just went to pack, which I had not finished yet, then to bed. Woke up at 4:30 am to catch the flight to low-tech-ville, and have now returned. In the meantime, I missed the Pokerstars bonus, wheeeee! The omaha selection at Bodog is quite small. There are never any limit games, and usually only one PL game per level, so I never play. UB had a decent selection of PL games and usually 2 limit games. I've never checked PS, but since it's PS, I assume the selection is wide. I was planning to deposit at PS when they offered the reload bonus, so that I could earn some bonus while playing some hi/low, but oh well.

I haven't played any poker since 12/22, and I'm ready to get back to the tables, even if I can't play any omaha. Wanted to do so tonight, but already too late, and I tried to catch up on some of the other journals. I do have some ruminations, however. While grinding away at 2/4 limit, I got bored, then poker just became no fun. I was playing to finish the bonus, rather than playing to play well. It started to become about the money, and when it did, it stopped being fun for me. I got a glimpse, though just a very very slight one, of what I've read in the journals of Kenny-G and Peirs. Both of them have commented on the difficulty they have had in putting in enough hours. And for a brief time, I sort of understood why. There I was just whoring that bonus before I left town; checking the points every orbit or so to see if I had gotten there yet. All the while the poker gods are slaughtering me, and I just felt no enthusiasm. I would have quit far sooner but "had" to finish the bonus. Yuck! I felt dirty. This long break came at just the right time.

I unwittingly broke my bankroll rule. The rule is: 3 consecutive losing sessions, move down. I hadn't entered stats into my spreadsheet for a couple days, though I had been posting in the journal and it just didn't add up for me. Looking over those posts, I thought I was running bad but playing well. I still think that. I was playing very well, but sometimes the cards don't help. At any rate, my satisfaction with my play led me to just overlook the 3 losing sessions in a row, so I played more 100NL on Friday and lost both sessions, which took me to 5 losers in a row. I finished up the day and the bonus with some 50NL where I finally caught a set against a preflop raise and stacked his overpair. That accounts for most of the ~$53 win. Had a maniac at one table, but never managed to catch anything remotely resembling a hand. Entertaining, as all maniac's are. He put several horrendous beats on players and one guy was cussing up a storm all on tilt after getting sucked out on twice. Didn't manage to catch a hand against him either. So at any rate, I'm back at 50NL for now and I'll play here for 3 consecutive winners before trying 100NL again. I'm sort of considering starting off with some 25NL while I work off the rust that has no doubt developed. Anyone come off a two week layoff drop down like this to start off or you guys just dive back in? This is my longest layoff by far, so I'm not sure what to expect.

The bonuses have allowed me to tread water through this card funk, so I'm still in good shape. I'll be redepositing tomorrow and after the bonus, my bankroll will sit at:
$2090