On bankrolls, live games, and who's your daddy?


I said in the previous that I'm not rolled for the 4/8, yet playing it now, when one is available in whatever room I'm visiting on the day. That's true. Am I worried? Not so much.

When I came out here 8 months ago to the day, I was under-bankrolled for ANY stakes. I didn't know it, realize it, nor could I do anything about it. I was under-rolled, because I wasn't good enough probably for any roll to be big enough at all. The joke is, if you are an expert player, you need X amount. If you are a losing player, you need a bottomless bankroll. I didn't realize just how much of a losing player I was then. I do now. I was pretty terrible.

Perhaps not that bad, but not good enough to win consistently. It's no surprise the money ran out quickly.

So, why am I taking the chance of going busto again? First, I'm a slow learner with my name on my underwear and on a seat in the back of the short bus. Second, because I'm hard-headed enough to think I'm a better player now than I was then. And, finally, I feel I have enough results to show that I'm still heads above the players at the table. I'm still in control of my chips, more than they are in control of theirs or mine. Plus, the hourly is better at 4/8 and I'm a little tired of grinding at $10/hr.

Frankly, there are very few good players in Vegas, no matter the stakes. I've talked to people who play pretty high limits who just don't know what they're doing. Talk to them long enough, you start to hear silent screams they don't hear. There's gaps in their understanding of things. They have holes. Lots of holes.

One thing I've really learned solidly since I started this Tour: Limit hold 'em is a very low variance game for a good player. I would imagine for an expert player, it's virtually impossible to go broke at low limits, if not higher, with even a modest bankroll. I've now sat for hour upon hour, losing with second best hands, card dead, misreading and paying off when I was pretty sure I was beat. As time has gone on, the downswings have become smaller and smaller. Fewer mistakes, better reads, easier and quicker laydowns, and some really sneaky playing which get one or two more bets in than they would get. The cool thing about limit play is even stealing the blinds has an impact on your profits. Most of us who've played mostly NL forget that outside of tournaments, stealing blinds is a big deal.

In NL, out here anyway where the play is incredibly bad at the low stakes, they can get lucky and you can easily get terribly unlucky. Losing 3 or 4 buyins can destroy an underfunded bankroll. (I doubt any really good NL player here would be in any danger at all above 20. At all.) At 4/8, that $800 represents 100 BBs, and I would go to the gallows believing that a really good 4/8 player couldn't possibly lose 100BBs playing 4/8. That would either be the worst run of luck and unimaginable, or being completely self-delusional about one's abilities.

Now, here's what I've come to tell ya.

I expect at 4/8, I can make 2 BBs/hr. Easily make that. $16/hr. According to people out here I'd trust with my bankroll and car title, at 1/2NL, a good hourly is...$17/hr. Yep, that's right, sports fans, a whopping $1/hr difference. (Bet this is going to stir a hornets nest, yes?) I'm very willing to put bank on the stats that these guys are quoting. It surprised me, too.

I have little doubt that 2 months ago, I would have lost my entire buy in, yesterday. As it turned out, by patience and maintaining discipline, it was a matter of time before I got most of it back. I wasn't looking to get it all back. Really. I was quite happy with being $20 losers, which I was a few hands before racking up. I had to smile when I had almost enough chips to fill both racks. It was a good day.

My goal has always been to become an expert hold 'em player. I haven't found any tests out there which would decree one is now at that level. I'm not, yet, I know and further know I may never be. The wonderful thing about poker is you don't have to be an expert to have great success. You don't have to be the best in the game, or even the best at the table. You simply have to be better than one or two at the table. If you can recognize who they best and worst are, you're in no danger of being the worst, and probably are closer to the top.

I'm still learning, and it's coming in larger and larger understandings. The hard part is not to be grinning like an idiot all the time. When you know what they know, and what they don't know, it's hard to keep a straight face. Esp when you are stacking their chips.

I have no doubt at all I can play this game out here at a fairly high level. The question is, what level, and can I play at a high enough level to make a living?

Will I go back to NL when this Tour is over?

I don't know. Really. NL is more challenging, more fun, more exciting. It is also more intimidating, frightening, scary and dangerous. The difference in skill between the best and the average is far greater than with fixed bets. The paradox is that luck can totally level that playing field against any but the very best. A donkey can take you out with one swift lucky kick to the head. As I can approach the same hourly at a modest 4/8 game as in 1/2NL, then why would I leave a game where I'm almost guaranteed winners with virtually no chance of going broke?

The only reason would be the difficulty in finding fixed limit games above 4/8 on a consistent basis. There simply aren't very many limit games above 4/8 spread all the time, and I'm really quite a ways from being able to play the 15/30 games that are much more consistent. The next five months before the WSOP should be interesting.

Argh---you just reminded me. Barry has his own website with lots of good info. And his Cardplayer article archive is a limit holdem treasure trove with origins predating the poker boom. I have read a few of his articles, but got busy and sidetracked at work early last summer, and they had slipped my mind.

Thanks for the reminder. Guess I know what my poker reading will focus on for a while. Might even keep me busy 'til he publishes his book (did I say he has written a lot?) If you see him at a Wednesday Poker Discussion session, can you pass along a hearty "thank you"? Like Lee Jones, he seems a classy guy who exemplifies the best in poker.

Somewhat encouraging to hear he is of a similar mindset to me on NL vs Limit. Now, if I could only play half as well as he does, think I'd have it made.