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Some numbers... How'm I doing? - Live Poker Forums

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Some numbers... How'm I doing?

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Some numbers... How'm I doing?

Postby Felonius_Monk » Wed Apr 27, 2005 1:19 pm

Hey all

Well, nearly 4k hands racked up at 3/6 HE at empire now and I'm, unfortunately, also pushing 400 down :(

I feel i'm playing reasonably well and being a bit unlucky, but equally I feel i'm playing far from perfectly and missing a few bets. Thing is, multitabling as much as I do, I don't feel I'm liable to play THAT much better than I am currently, so I'd appreciate any input on this. Here's some of my numbers and concerns:

VPIP 13.7% - don't think this'll ever get much higher. If anything I feel I am playing too many hands, perhaps my only issue is not defending my blind often enough to steals

Question - I raise PF with a hand like AQo and someone 3-bets.... Decent enough to call and then take one off if I miss the flop? I'm routinely making plays like this against average players and wonder if it's a leak. Same with the likes of 88, 99, AJs etc in MP and LP.

VPIP SB 18% - so I play 5% more hands. Probably I call too much from SB, given it's the worst position. is 5% more ok, given it's 2/3 of a SB to call? Or should I be just as tight as the other positions? I don't feel i'm leaking much here.

Question - if it's folded to me in the SB i routinely raise hands like A4o. Sometimes I win the BB outright, sometimes he calls. I usually bet the flop then, regardless. I have won one or two nice pots by just betting hard in this spot although I feel i'm not always picking my spots. I won quite a big pot with A3o when I made a steal raise from LP, he popped back with the blind, I capped, raised him on the flop, then bet the turn when he checked- he folded and I won unimproved! I don't make a habit of that though, perhaps not even enough. If it's folded to me in the last two seats, or the SB, is it OK to raise just about any half decent holding (Axo, Axs, Kxs, low pairs, suited connectors etc etc)?

Fold SB to steal 88%
Fold BB to steal 66%

Question - I fold 66% of BBs that are raised? IS that what this means? If so, should I be seeing flops with more than a third of the hands, given i'll be getting like 3-1, 4-1 odds minimum? What hands should I defend with :| I have a real problem with this, stuff like A8s or whatever, well i need to connect or else i'm folding on the flop; something like 78s is well disguised but hardly ever hits a playable flop, so i'm then folding that... even low-mid pairs aren't really going anywhere cos I don't REALLY have odds to hit a set, needing to get probably 2 BBs out of the raiser each time I hit (well, maybe I do have odds sometimes... I usually call small pairs to a raise in the BB anyhow).

Att. to steal blinds 24% - too low?

Won $ when saw flop - 33%; given it's rare for more than 3 or 4 players to see a flop, is this a little low? Evidence of a bad run, or perhaps folding some winners??? I don't feel like I'm folding many winners, though perhaps i am laying down weak hands sometimes when i dont try to steal often enough... thought I feel I AM stealing quite often and usually get caught! Maybe that's just my mental image and perhaps i am playing too tight-passive...

Went to SD% - 26% - this seems ludicrously low. Again, just a bad run or a sign of something wrong? What numbers do you guys have?

Won $ at SD% - 60% - this seems about right - given my low WTSD and W$WSF numbers, does this mean i'm just running bad?

PFR% - 6.6% - I'm not likely to be raising any more hands. Already I am sometimes making raises I feel uncomfortable with, Like AJs in most seats and pairs like 88 and 99 etc. Maybe I could raise a few more things in LP, like A9o, ATo etc first to act?

BB/100 - minus 1.58

Hands:

AA - playing this fine. 85% winning so far, 2.5BB/hand
KK - 1.6 BB/hand, won $ at showdown only 63% though?
QQ - 0.6BB/hand ugh. 50% W$SD
JJ - 0.33 BB /hand. 75% W$SD. Small sample but maybe folding too often?
TT - -0.17BB/hand (Losing) 40% W$SD
AKo - 0.17BB/hand 50%W$SD
AKs - 0.8BB/hand 50%W$SD
AQs - 0.38BB/hand 75%W$SD
AQo - 0.23BB/hand 50%W$SD
AJs and AJo are both losers/break even, AT is a loser for me (ATs a small winner, ATo a slightly larger loser, -0.53BB/hand)
KQs and KQo are both around break even, I have a 33% and 25% PFR% respectively. OK?
Pairs below TT ar 0.06BB/100. VPIP for these combined is 60%. Is this too high, or about right?

Aggression:

Total post-flop: 2.80
Flop: 3.5
Turn: 3.4
River: 2.1

Too passive on river? I've maybe missed a bet or two here, but then also I seem to be being run down a LOT at the moment when I hold a middle pair or something, bet all the way, just for some passive goon to turn over a strong top-pair.

Anyway, food for thought! I must admit i'm a bit put off by limit again, when I used to play about 2 years it seemed to me i won a lot more, I think the games were a lot easier back then, but I WOULD like to be a decent winner in the medium term, and being that I'm only 400 down i guess that's possible, but I'd have liked to have been doing better after 4k hands really.

Thoughts from you limit-ites, please!

Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby piersmajestyk » Wed Apr 27, 2005 2:42 pm

Hey Monk I will try to dispense a little help but take it for what it's worth as after nearly 16K hands at 36 limit I am losing about 50.00 :lol:

Hey all

Well, nearly 4k hands racked up at 3/6 HE at empire now and I'm, unfortunately, also pushing 400 down

I wouldn't be too concerned with that number after that many hands.

I feel i'm playing reasonably well and being a bit unlucky, but equally I feel i'm playing far from perfectly and missing a few bets. Thing is, multitabling as much as I do, I don't feel I'm liable to play THAT much better than I am currently, so I'd appreciate any input on this. Here's some of my numbers and concerns:

VPIP 13.7% - don't think this'll ever get much higher. If anything I feel I am playing too many hands, perhaps my only issue is not defending my blind often enough to steals

I think this number is just fine.

Question - I raise PF with a hand like AQo and someone 3-bets.... Decent enough to call and then take one off if I miss the flop? I'm routinely making plays like this against average players and wonder if it's a leak. Same with the likes of 88, 99, AJs etc in MP and LP.

Your preflop raise here is fine and you have to call the 3 bet to see the flop but keep in mind that you are likely trailing probably 85-90% of the time here. If you miss the flop I think you should just fold to a bet. Let's say it is heads up and there are 7.33 small bets in the pot, in calling his flop bet you are now getting a little over 8:1 which would be fine IF all of your outs were good but I doubt that this will be the fact a vast majority of the time. I think a check fold here is much better than fishing for a card that may get you into more trouble if you hit it.

VPIP SB 18% - so I play 5% more hands. Probably I call too much from SB, given it's the worst position. is 5% more ok, given it's 2/3 of a SB to call? Or should I be just as tight as the other positions? I don't feel i'm leaking much here.

My VIP% for 36 limit = 11.37 My VIP% for SB = 11.85 :lol: As you can see I play the SB the same way I would play a hand UTG. Would I call this hand UTG, if not it goes in the muck and they can fight over my 1.00.

Question - if it's folded to me in the SB i routinely raise hands like A4o. Sometimes I win the BB outright, sometimes he calls. I usually bet the flop then, regardless. I have won one or two nice pots by just betting hard in this spot although I feel i'm not always picking my spots. I won quite a big pot with A3o when I made a steal raise from LP, he popped back with the blind, I capped, raised him on the flop, then bet the turn when he checked- he folded and I won unimproved! I don't make a habit of that though, perhaps not even enough.

My advice again is just fold here unless you have a real hand and by a real hand I don't mean Ax or a smallish pocket pair. You are still out of position and have only 1.00 invested. Perhaps something as high as A9 I would raise or a big K but most of the other stuff I am going to muck. Perhaps too tight for most others but that's just my thinking on the subject with so little invested preflop. Now with 2/3 of the bet in in a game like 15-30 then that is a different story. If I do play a hand from the SB heads up I won't be limping in.


If it's folded to me in the last two seats, or the SB, is it OK to raise just about any half decent holding (Axo, Axs, Kxs, low pairs, suited connectors etc etc)?

Honestly probably ok and will show a small +EV although I generally muck most of the time with those kinds of hand. Doesn't make sense you say why muck if you are getting a small +EV. Well if I was playing only one table or I was playing live I would be raising alot more than those hands from late position but when I am 4 and 5 tabling I just keep it simple and don't try to push every small edge I have.

Fold SB to steal 88%
Fold BB to steal 66%

Me 89% SB BB 47.5% As you can see I defend alot more hands than you from the blind, particularly when it's heads up because I am getting 3.3:1 on my call so I don't need much. I have written about this elsewhere but I am MUCH more likely to defend my blind with some sort of garbage hand rather than say A8 or KJ, particularly if the raise came from an EP player. And what do I mean by garbage hand, anything from 27o to 105 if you catch my drift, any two non paint cards is a criteria that I usually go by.

Question - I fold 66% of BBs that are raised? IS that what this means? If so, should I be seeing flops with more than a third of the hands, given i'll be getting like 3-1, 4-1 odds minimum? What hands should I defend with I have a real problem with this, stuff like A8s or whatever, well i need to connect or else i'm folding on the flop; something like 78s is well disguised but hardly ever hits a playable flop, so i'm then folding that... even low-mid pairs aren't really going anywhere cos I don't REALLY have odds to hit a set, needing to get probably 2 BBs out of the raiser each time I hit (well, maybe I do have odds sometimes... I usually call small pairs to a raise in the BB anyhow).

Att. to steal blinds 24% - too low?

Me 17.2%. Again I am ultra tight and anytime I raise you wouldn't actually be calling it a steal because I have a hand.

Won $ when saw flop - 33%; given it's rare for more than 3 or 4 players to see a flop, is this a little low? Evidence of a bad run, or perhaps folding some winners??? I don't feel like I'm folding many winners, though perhaps i am laying down weak hands sometimes when i dont try to steal often enough... thought I feel I AM stealing quite often and usually get caught! Maybe that's just my mental image and perhaps i am playing too tight-passive...

W$SP 36%

Went to SD% - 26% - this seems ludicrously low. Again, just a bad run or a sign of something wrong? What numbers do you guys have?

WTSD 35.33% perhaps a little high by me

Won $ at SD% - 60% - this seems about right - given my low WTSD and W$WSF numbers, does this mean i'm just running bad?

W$SD 51.25%, perhaps the result of the above number

PFR% - 6.6% - I'm not likely to be raising any more hands. Already I am sometimes making raises I feel uncomfortable with, Like AJs in most seats and pairs like 88 and 99 etc. Maybe I could raise a few more things in LP, like A9o, ATo etc first to act?

PFR%: 7.66

BB/100 - minus 1.58

BB/100 (-0.07)

Hands:

AA - playing this fine. 85% winning so far, 2.5BB/hand
KK - 1.6 BB/hand, won $ at showdown only 63% though?
QQ - 0.6BB/hand ugh. 50% W$SD
JJ - 0.33 BB /hand. 75% W$SD. Small sample but maybe folding too often?
TT - -0.17BB/hand (Losing) 40% W$SD
AKo - 0.17BB/hand 50%W$SD
AKs - 0.8BB/hand 50%W$SD
AQs - 0.38BB/hand 75%W$SD
AQo - 0.23BB/hand 50%W$SD
AJs and AJo are both losers/break even, AT is a loser for me (ATs a small winner, ATo a slightly larger loser, -0.53BB/hand)
KQs and KQo are both around break even, I have a 33% and 25% PFR% respectively. OK?
Pairs below TT ar 0.06BB/100. VPIP for these combined is 60%. Is this too high, or about right?

Aggression:

Total post-flop: 2.80
Flop: 3.5
Turn: 3.4
River: 2.1


FLOP 2.8
Turn: 2.4
River 1.4 Mine probably a little low, yours about right.



Too passive on river? I've maybe missed a bet or two here, but then also I seem to be being run down a LOT at the moment when I hold a middle pair or something, bet all the way, just for some passive goon to turn over a strong top-pair.

Anyway, food for thought! I must admit i'm a bit put off by limit again, when I used to play about 2 years it seemed to me i won a lot more, I think the games were a lot easier back then, but I WOULD like to be a decent winner in the medium term, and being that I'm only 400 down i guess that's possible, but I'd have liked to have been doing better after 4k hands really.

Thoughts from you limit-ites, please!

Monk
xxxxx


As I said in another recent post sometimes good players can run bad a long time and there is nothing much wrong with their game. If you think you are playing a solid game and from your numbers I suspect you are, although I would start defending my BB a little more, things should iron themself out over time.
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Postby Nortonesque » Wed Apr 27, 2005 2:51 pm

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Postby bobby » Fri Apr 29, 2005 12:45 pm

Norton---Thanks for posting that link...Fascinating reading ( I guess I missed it the first time) and VERY apropos to what I have been thinking about lately...After chasing the bonuses on the "Cryptos Rock Garden" I was thinking there HAS to be way to beat these games since the are so predictable...I am not good enough (yet) to figure out what to do, but it sure is interesting to think about. If Piers or Bri (or any limit regulars) has some time, I would love to hear what they think on this 2+2 thread...
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Postby piersmajestyk » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:03 pm

For what it's worth I pretty much agree with the original poster that somewhere around 18-19% VIP might be an optimal % IF you play extremely well post flop and also have a decent read on your opposition. When playing live I am probably around that number and maybe a little higher. But as some others posted the addition of those 4-5% of hands you are adding add very little to your bottom line when played well and can be very detrimental if you don't play so well post flop.

What I have advocated in playing alot tighter than that is primarily for beginning and intermediate players to help keep them out of alot of troublesome situations until they have enough time under their belt to handle them properly. I am in no way saying my philosophy is the be all and in all but I am saying that if you stick with it you will show a profit which might very well not be true if you jump the gun and start playing alot more marginal hands while learning all the tricks of the trade.

I pretty much know all of the tricks after playing for 10 years and probably close to 1.5 million hands but I still play alot tighter than is optimal because of various factors that I have discussed before when playing online.
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NUMBERS

Postby MecosKing » Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:15 pm

My take on numbers is twofold--

First off, i do not think that tight is always right. Not by a longshot. No one that has builtup a truly intimidating bankroll did it by having a lower VPIP than the rest of the field- they did it by playing WELL - by mucking TPTK when they knew it was no good, jamming seven highs when they knew thier opponents would fold, and calling with kinghighs when they knew thier opponent was bluffing. That is the kind of player i want to be, and i think that is the player we should all aspire to be. Players like that play lots more hands profitably than most do.

That said, playing online changes things a lot because of the multi tabling aspect. While i truly beleive that we should all try to become the best players we can, the fact of the matter is most of us are not there yet, and some of us may never be. Playing a bona fide great game of poker is a truly monumental task, and somewhat like chess, i beleive it is a gift that some are born with and others not. No matterhow much discipline and studying we do, we wont ever play chess like bobby fisher- and by the same token, most of us wont ever play poker like negraneu, ivey, or ungar, at least i dont anticipate that i will. If you guys think you can, then i hope your right, and more power to you!

Anyways, I think that the multi-tabling aspect allows you to grind it out more effectively for a decent profit. Also, MTing necessarily decreases the attention you give to each table, which i think works against the whole 'playing well' thing, because in order to play optimally,, you gotta watch the table and the action pretty caraefully..

So, its basically a matter of deciding what it is your trying to do. If you are playin 6 tables atta time, then your VPIP damn well better be 15% or lower because even if you are the hypothetical uber-player, youd be hard pressed to be able to pay attention enough to play the marginal hands for profit when your playin so many tables. On the other hand, if your playin only a couple tables, and trying to play 'well' and playin the marginal stuff, then your liable to
a) Lose profits you may get by playing more tables; and
b) Lose money on the extra hands, because grinding out a profit with J8s, even in LP, is a delicate matter.

So, IMHO it sort of comes down to what you want to do. You may say eh, fuck it, id rather play more tables, less hands, and just play tight and try to capitalize on the mistakes of other players, then that is fine. Nothin at all wrong with that! I have had to show down many a nine-high on the river before, trying to 'play well', where it turned out that 'playing well' would have been not gettin involved with whatever godawful holding i had in the first place.

So all in all, as usual, i dunno what the hell im trying to say. I guess just that i think multi-tabling internet style and live (or internet) one or two table style are very different, and honestly, im not even sure whats better or worse, profit-wise...Upshot though is that i think if your playin a million tables, your better off not trying to play too fancy, and just grind grind grindin, and if your playin say, one table at a high limit, thens the time to start uppin the ole VPIP...

my simple, 2 cent point, as per usual, takes up about 80x the bandwith it needed to. But hey, writin this drivel gives me somethin to do between hands, right?
NorthViewBTP: poor old ED
NorthViewBTP: from gun totin beer swiller
NorthViewBTP: to limp wristed defender of fagdom
NorthViewBTP: ALL THINGS TO ALL MEN
NorthViewBTP: IS THE SAME AS NO THINGS TO ANY MAN
--------------------
Mekos King: NV ignoring
Jimmy BTP: he's ignoring me too
Jimmy BTP: obv fell asleep in his colostomy bag
Jimmy BTP: running shite everywhere
---------
neelguru: I gave up politics when I was 6
neelguru: Im dedicating the rest of my life to getting unstuck
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Postby bobby » Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:45 pm

well said mecos...I guess it's always a fight between poker mastery (as per TUP) and just gettin' the damn money...Since I have no money, I can wait till later on the mastery stuff...And at the same time, I look forward to the "mastery" journey as well...Hell, now I have confused myself and need more whiskey...
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hehe

Postby MecosKing » Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:55 pm

more whiskey sounds like a plan. Im currently sippin on Woodford Reserve. Good stuff. Drinkin good whiskey in the middle of the day, and playin cards like a true gentleman.
!
What can i say. Schools OUT! Wheeeeee...

EDIT: Okay, so maybe a true gentleman wouldnt be drinkin it outta the bottle. I think most people on here that read my posts can tell, i fall a little short in the gentleman department...
NorthViewBTP: poor old ED
NorthViewBTP: from gun totin beer swiller
NorthViewBTP: to limp wristed defender of fagdom
NorthViewBTP: ALL THINGS TO ALL MEN
NorthViewBTP: IS THE SAME AS NO THINGS TO ANY MAN
--------------------
Mekos King: NV ignoring
Jimmy BTP: he's ignoring me too
Jimmy BTP: obv fell asleep in his colostomy bag
Jimmy BTP: running shite everywhere
---------
neelguru: I gave up politics when I was 6
neelguru: Im dedicating the rest of my life to getting unstuck
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Postby Tiburon » Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:53 am

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
--JJSCOTT2

Read my blog at
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RE: STATS

Postby nothumb » Wed May 04, 2005 10:22 pm

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