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Hmmm - AK facing heat

Postby starstealer » Tue May 03, 2005 11:56 am

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Postby briachek » Tue May 03, 2005 12:26 pm

This is a tough one. BB has either AA or KK and MP could easily just have the A and not the J. Would your friend lead out on the flop with KK no matter what? If so, then its 50/50 that you have him beat and I would say 50/50 you have MP beat. So by my gorilla math, you have a 25% chance of winning here and more than that in the pot. I think I would call the flop to see if the BB 3 bets. If he does, i think you can safely put him on AA and fold. If he just calls, I would look to call it down on the turn. If the BB check raises on the turn, you can also put him on AA and fold.

This is a really tough spot and I think you can make arguments for all actions depending on your read and how your friend plays. 3 betting the flop might get your friend to 4 bet AA on that flop so you could save yourself the half bet more you would have paid on the turn if he slowplays but folding the flop rather than folding to a checkraise on the turn.

Folding wouldn't be so bad with all this action and depending on how much you believe the players, it might be prudent in this case.

To be honest, I am leaning towards fold as this is a time I would much rather be playing live than online so I can see these people bet.
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Postby starstealer » Tue May 03, 2005 12:51 pm

To be honest, given the way the hand played I was virtually convinced that BB had AA. There was no 50/50 about it. I happened to be wrong in my read, but I made my play according to that thought - figuring I was drawing dead.

I was talking with BB later about it and he felt I made an egregious error here - letting go of an admittedly huge pot for only 2 bets, when the pot was already quite large. He felt if I had had KK - then letting go of it would be fine - but the fact that I had improved should mean that I stick with it.

However, from my point of view - I was trapped between two people raising. MP could easily have a jack here (though that's not a guarantee), and BB showed a fair amount of strength.

After I folded, BB merely called (which I thought was odd) and then the turn came:

An ace.

So what did BB have and what did MP have?

/d
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Postby briachek » Tue May 03, 2005 1:36 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
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Postby nolimpin » Tue May 03, 2005 2:45 pm

I would 3 bet the flop and put pressure on BB. He probably has KK. MP probably has a weaker A. Since you hit the flop and the pot is big, you must become aggressive to try and win it!
When you have the odds, you become smart money.
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Postby starstealer » Tue May 03, 2005 2:53 pm

Okay - now if I told you that BB had AQ what would you say?

First of all, his four bet preflop was designed to hopefully knock MP off his hand because he had shown some weakness in previous hands (not my read about MP, but BB's read). BB also suspected I had a large PP - specifically QQ or KK. When the flop included the ace he bet out again and when MP raised was surprised to see me fold.

He felt that at worst, the two of us would be splitting and in the best case, I would be taking the whole pot.

However, as it turned out - Mr. MP had JJ and took a monster pot when he and BB capped the turn and river.

nolimpin - had I 3-bet - BB would have folded and MP would have raised you back. On the turn you would hit your 2nd-nut hand - would you continue to push it? You say BB is most likely on KK - what do you put MP on?

/d
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Postby nolimpin » Tue May 03, 2005 3:21 pm

I put MP on a weaker A, so I probably would have slowed down the aggression on the turn, figuring that we were going to split. However, if I thought the player was fishy enough to continue with just a J, I would cap it all the way to the river.

I've only lost once with the nut boat to quads in 50,000 hands, but it wasn't on a double paired board. I had QQ and the board was Q8677. And I've never hit quads when sombody else has hit the nut boat (I'm still waiting for that glorious day!!). You can't ever put somebody on quads.....
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Postby nolimpin » Tue May 03, 2005 3:30 pm

Oh yeah, and why would your friend (that you say is pretty good) 4-bet pre-flop with AQ when he thinks you dominate him with QQ or KK???
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Postby briachek » Tue May 03, 2005 5:17 pm

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Postby starstealer » Wed May 04, 2005 11:32 am

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