Looking at the structure, I don't think I'll ever play those:

(1) Huge self-selection of talented, good players. By the time you get to level 3, you're playing such highly skilled players that you would have a very small edge. That edge gets smaller (or goes negative) once you get to even higher levels. Yuck.

(2) Too much variance. Your odds of getting to the top 4 on any given $12 attempt are well under 1% even if you are an extremely talented player. Bad for your bankroll.

However, if you don't care about the bankroll risk too much, and you're fine with playing excellent competition in a $1000 SNG in your best case scenerio, then here is what I would do to exploit errors I would expect people to make:
(1) Even HIGHER reward to the survival strategy -- totally flat payout, and especially in the 3rd stage, why take a risk? Only about 2/3 of the players get hurt, one guy breaks even, and almost 1/3 advance!! No sense in taking chances.
(2) Eventually, the rocks will be the only people left at level 4 or 5, and it might be worthwhile to switch your playing style to exploit rock-like behavior.
(3) There will be lots of "scared money" in the final round -- $10 SNG players who suddenly are playing a $1000 SNG....... I would be scared money. Be merciless, roll over the top of them every once in a while, and PLAY FOR FIRST PLACE. Scared money will be trying to limp into $2400, you should play for the $9000.

excellent post nash.

i've definatly thought about the dilemma of running into more skilled opponents - however, in the short run luck does become a prominent factor. when you're talking about turning a $10 investment into 9k, you can't ingore the luck factor.

i feel confident enough in my game to feel i can outplay most of my opponents up to my regular $30 SnG's on stars. i feel i could comfortably sit with the 50 SnG players also. i've never even thought about watching higher limit ones. However, cruising into the top half of a SnG hardly seems like a difficult task to do - even against a relatively tough field. I think given 3 or 4 tries at the first level, i could eventually make it to the final step. maybe i'm over confident in myself - but confidence is rarely a negative thing.
At that point i'd definatly consider it a matter of luck. bottom line - i'll need the cards to make it to the final four. but once again - a $10 investment for 9k is gonna need luck. I've definatly had SnGs where i've just had monster hands and dominated the table by the sheer power of the cards.



I'm cuirous to know if anyone has actually played in these (or if anyone does and wants to post results when they do). even with how difficult they're sure to be, they sound interesting as hell.

~Dustin

Dustin,

I played a couple of these last night. I bought into two level ones, out of curiousity. I finished, 16th and 5th respecitvely. Play was, colorful, in both of them. The first one, when I finished 16th, was extremely loose and passive. There was almost no pre flop raising, and 5 to 6 people limping in each hand. I'll post some hands from them in a little bit to see what everybody thinks of them.

The second one gave me a little more insight since I was around longer. It was still pretty passive early. The chip leaders were up to 3 and 4K in chips just by virtue of the fact that they were getting luckier than everyone else, flopping two junk pair with J-8 and the like. When we got down to about 15, there were 2 huge stacks about 4K each, about 3 medium stacks, like 1500, and the rest were short-ish stacked, less than 800 or so. The tables went nuts. The blinds got to 25-50 and the short stacked players all decided they had to double up NOW, because it became an all in fest. We went from 15 to 10 in about 10 minutes.

The final table was interesting. There were the same two huge stacks, two pretty big stacks, and a lot of people with around 800-1000 chips. I had a little over 1000, and the blinds were 50-100. I wasn't in great shape and I'd have to make some moves soon, but it wasn't dire straits yet. First hand, boom, one of the short stack moves in UTG with A4 and gets called by queens and is gone. One more low stack doubled up. A few hands later I double up with Jacks vs K-9 and now it's a game. At 6 left we had three huge stacks who were really pushing the table around, and the three low stacks were just waiting and moving in, trying to steal enough chips to hang on and get fourth. When we got to 5, the blinds were up to 150-300, the big stacks had 7K plus, and I was short stacked with one other player, with 1400. At this point it was a very tough game of balancing the need to hang on on the bubble and make the cut, and yet still accumulate some chips so I'm not forced into a hand, but it just wasn't to be. This was the only part of the tournament I disliked, because it was really a crapshoot at this point.

Still, all that said, I don't think getting to the level 2 will be that difficult, and with a larger payout at level 2, it seems like a positive situation. I'm going to keep trying and I'll keep posting how it's going.

Drade

Hello - This is my first post on this forum, long time lurker at UPF.

I decided to give these a try earlier this week and I have made it to level 4 on my first try. I thought the level of play for "steps" 1 and 2 were typical for Party, many loose-passive players with only a couple of truly good players. I was lucky enough to double up early in both and coasted to the final 4. Level 3 did have some more good players, but there were still plenty of bad players. I did just squeak into the top 6 in the level 3, I will probably try the 4th step in the next couple of nights.

I agree with Nash, you're going to need some cards to place in the top 4 in the last step, I've watched some of those and they are just filled with tight-aggressive play. Almost every pot is raised preflop. I also see the same names over and over in these. I don't like the payoff structure because you could advance all the way from level 1, finish 5th in the final level, and get nothing, one spot away from $2400. I think they should at least throw a little something to people who finish like 5 through 8, maybe $100, that would at least help us small stakes players who make it that far.

If anyone cares, I'll post my results in the level 4 when I play it, never thought I'd be playing in a $500 SNG!

if you win a level can you just take the money won from that level or do you have to continue until the 5th level?