[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4783: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4785: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4786: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4787: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
Some Numbers- Look Bad - Live Poker Forums

Advanced search

Some Numbers- Look Bad

Post your tough limit holdem hands here

Moderators: piersmajestyk, LPF Police Department

Some Numbers- Look Bad

Postby GrizRodder » Tue May 10, 2005 5:15 am

Just started playing have got some numbers from another program I'am using while PT support trys to help me get PT going. These numbers are from .50c-$1 limit at Empire. Hands Played 485,VP$IP 28.6%, PreFlopR 8.6%, PreFlopAggresion 8.6%, FlopsSeen 30.75%, TurnsSeen 22.15%, RiversSeen 11.83%, Showdowns/W 29.09%.

I do'nt think that I'am seeing to many flops at that low a limit., must be cold calling to much because I think I can, due to the looseness of these guys. I'd say I have to tighten up a lot on the flop, turn, river. Was up over$100 from $50 at one time, now down to $12. I think I was not paying attention to my cold calling, saw to many turns, and rivers, and went to the river to much with out folding, thinking I could get away with it because the game was so loose. Appreciate any imput. :(
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Postby GrizRodder » Tue May 10, 2005 5:56 am

Had those numbers messed up, guess I need my coffee.

VP$IP 28.6%
PreFlopR 8.6%
PostFlopAggresion 1.85
FlopsSeen 30.75%
Turns 22.15%
RiversSeen 16.56%
ShowDownsSeen 11.83%
Showdowns/Won 29.09%

What would be some decent number for the limit I'am playing at now (.50c-$1) Most of these tables are really loose, so part of my problem, I believe, is thinking I can loosen up a lot when I should tighten up more, and not respecting a 2 bet raise preflop, or postflop. Playing to many hands to the river.
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Postby TightWad » Tue May 10, 2005 6:38 am

Well, it sounds like you've already identified one of the problems: cold-calling to often. Calling two bets with marginal hands can be a very big leak; believe me, I know from experience. :) For example, you might notice that on one hand, player X raised in EP with A9o...and then the next time he raises, you're considering calling him with AT...don't. Even though he may raise a few weaker hands, he'll also raise the stronger ones, so if you do hit, you'll be unsure if where you stand. Unable to get away if you're behind, unable to get full value if you're ahead.

You make money when people call your raises with hands they shouldn't. Don't give it back by doing the same against their raises.

Your VP$IP does look a bit high. Perhaps you can get away with some extra hands against very loose opponents, but I still don't think it should be much in excess of 20%. If you like, you can give us a rundown of your starting hands from various positions, and we'll see if we can help you cut 'em back a bit.

-TW
User avatar
TightWad
<b>Forum Jackass</b>
 
Posts: 1300
Joined: Sat Nov 27, 2004 9:41 am
Location: I rock.

Postby GrizRodder » Tue May 10, 2005 7:02 am

I'll have to get PT going before I can give you any hands. PT trys to import the hands butI get an error message sent to PTv2\PTAL. Found thd file and it had a a couple of "File contains no Texas Hold'em hands of unable to determine what site this file came from"
I checked for for a hand history folder and I have one from Empire with histories in it, and am waiting to hear back from PT support.
Your probably right there, I think I"am chasing these players, because they are so loose, and I'am playing as bad as they are. :idea:

Thanks for the help
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Postby musicman80 » Tue May 10, 2005 9:43 am

FWIW, Griz, @ ~4k hands (not a lot, I know), I have a VP$IP of ~22%, and I've been cranking out a modestly net-positive BB/100 (~4.00). Of course, probably about a third of those hands were played at shorthanded / 6-max tables, where you really do have to loosen up a bit (not something I'd suggest if you're just starting out!! I've since moved back to full tables.), but I think in a really loose game, as long as you're careful about *how* you play some of the more speculative hands, a VP$IP of just a bit over 20% is within 'tolerable' limits... You do have to be careful, as you've already observed, to not cold-call raises unless you've got strong hands. And, really, if you've got a strong enough hand to cold-call a raise (e.g., high pairs - TT thru AA - or big aces like AQ, AK), you'll probably want to think about raising.

Personally, I think it's tricky whether or not you want to raise with TT/JJ or even AQ - but those are hands that I'd usually cold-call with from middle position or later. Whether or not I raise really with those hands depends on the situation.

But the point is that with hands that are weaker than those big pairs and those big aces (i.e., your top money makers), it becomes very difficult to justify a cold-call unless there's plenty of action in the pot. I would say with at least 12 small bets in the pot, you could probably start to play some of those weaker pairs or the weaker suited aces, because you are going to be getting 6:1 on your money to see a flop. With a decent hand like ATs down to even, say, A8s, and with pairs from 99 all the way on down, you're getting pretty decent value on your money. You just have to be ready to ditch the flop if you've completely missed it. This is where playing from a later position really affords you the advantage of seeing what kind of pot odds you're getting before deciding to chase; this is also why it becomes very difficult to be able to even just limp with some of these marginal holdings.

I'll say one more thing about speculative hands - and that has to do with limping. If a lot of people have limped before you (7-8 people), and you only have to call 1 bet, you can probably very safely see the flop from late position with even just a suited king, I think. I think you've got to be prepared to throw it away right away if someone raises and people don't continue to call the raise - but the key here is pot odds. Pot odds, pot odds, pot odds! I don't think there's very much you can throw away when you're getting crazy odds like 12:1 or higher - as long as you've got outs, you can continue to draw. You just have to watch your odds, and watch the class of players you're up against, and I think you can play some of these speculative hands for +EV.

I think a great reference on these super-loose types of games is Small Stakes Hold 'Em by Ed Miller - he describes exactly how you should count your weak drawing outs, and under what situations you can cheaply see a flop. If you haven't also read Winning Low Limit Hold 'Em (Lee Jones), that's a good introduction as well.

One final word of caution: all of this advice really only applies to those super-loose games with weak players. The minute you start getting the LAG-types in there, you have to be much more careful to not throw your money into every pot, because that *will* be -EV. (If I'm not mistaken, I think that's precisely their strategy!)

OK guys - am I wrong here? Please correct my thinking! :-)
User avatar
musicman80
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:10 am
Location: Austin, TX

Postby musicman80 » Tue May 10, 2005 9:53 am

Just a quick clarification - when I was talking about "raising with TT/JJ/AQ", I meant re-raising...
User avatar
musicman80
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:10 am
Location: Austin, TX

Postby GrizRodder » Wed May 11, 2005 10:40 am

Thanks for the post musicman,

I've got the Miller, Skylansky, Malmuth book, Small Stakes Hold'em, am calling a lot hands from their charts in the blinds and the button, using the eary chart and adapting it for middle and late preflop cards. Calling a lot of small sets, even it its raised once, not hitting many of them, also they say in a unraised pot call down to A2s, which seems awfully loose, for early position. Hitting very few of them also.

Seems like this .50c-$1 limit is up and down, PE said that it was a waste of time playing $1-$2 and $2-$4 was a lot better. I imagine that goes for .50c-$1 too, but got to start somewhere, right.
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Postby musicman80 » Wed May 11, 2005 11:30 am

Griz,

Yeah, the SSH book is definitely pretty loose... I don't often end up at tables that are quite so loose, so I've found I have to tighten up my selection quite a bit. I think there are two key points to the SSH book, though, and they are quite simple: (a) pot odds - in those super-loose games, you can actually remain +EV by playing draw-only types of hands; (b) in general, you have to be much more conscientious about how you count your drawing outs. Just because you've only got a backdoor flush draw doesn't mean you should fold it always; neither does it mean that you should play it always. You have to look at the situation, see if you've also made a hand (say top pair no kicker), and what kind of odds the pot is laying you. In general, I think Ed Miller's point is that you should be much more aggressive in trying to win the big pots in a loose-passive game.

That being said, I play almost exclusively on UB. I don't find those kinds of games at the 1/2 level, at least. So I've tightened up the SSH guidelines quite a bit. You'll have to play a lot of hands before you can begin to see patterns in situations anyway... so just stick at the limits you can afford for the moment, and be prepared to grind it out. It will take a while, in all likelihood - and don't get carried away with either huge upswings *or* huge downswings - your SD early on is likely to be pretty high. Just concentrate on the game.

And don't gamble away your life's savings. :-P Hope things work out for you!
User avatar
musicman80
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:10 am
Location: Austin, TX

Postby GrizRodder » Wed May 11, 2005 12:54 pm

Your right about SSH musicman, I think the recommendations are way to loose. I'am seeing the showdown 11%, and winning 35.5%, noy good. have tightened up alot but have to go another notch.

How much of a swing can I see at the level I'am playing. Seems tough to get ahead at this limit. What should I expect playing reasonably well?
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Postby musicman80 » Wed May 11, 2005 3:35 pm

Well, the thing is that the swings you should be expecting are highly dependent on the site you play - and from what I understand Empire (which I believe is a Party skin - correct me if I'm wrong) is supposed to be pretty loose. This means that you're basically going to have to play showdown Hold 'Em - you are not likely to win many pots uncontested. Of course a large part of the swings you should expect to see *also* depend on your SD (standard deviation) and WR (win rate). These are both auto-calculated for you by PokerTracker, if you've got that up and running.

FWIW, though, after ~4k hands my SD is at ~15 BB/100 and my WR is at ~4 BB/100 - I'm not sure how great these numbers are, but from what I've seen, these are decent for a "normal" winning player. There's actually a post I responded to in the Bankroll Management forums about Standard Deviation, if you want more clarification on this subject: . I'd recommend reading that post to understand what the 15 BB/100 stat really represents, but it should give you an idea of your swings. Based on my WR, this basically means that on a really good day, I may win 2 SDs above my average WR (for a total of 34 BB/100), and on a bad day, I may lose 2 SDs below my average WR (for a total of -26 BB/100), but on average, I will be anywhere from +/- 1 SD from my average WR (for a range of -11 BB/100 to +19 BB/100).

Also, just to give you an idea what kind of play this is based on, here's my other stats:

VP$IP - 21.95%
Pre-flop Raise: 8.38%
Went to showdown - 30.66%
Won at showdown - 51.09%
Overall AF = 1.88
Flop Aggression = 1.87
Turn Aggression = 1.94
River Aggression = 1.85

The other folks can comment on how good/bad these numbers are - but I'll reiterate my word of warning - this data is only based on ~4k hands, so I'm not sure how accurate it all is. All I can pretty safely say is that my SD has definitely appeared to have converged, and doesn't fluctuate wildly on either side of 15 BB/100.

Anyway Griz, I hope this answered your question.
User avatar
musicman80
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:10 am
Location: Austin, TX

Postby GrizRodder » Thu May 12, 2005 9:07 pm

Thats a big help musicman, so your stats of 4BB/100 is real decent, goes along with one of the other posts. So at the .50c-$1 limit its going to take along time to build a bank account. The good thing is that the bad days have not been more than a -$25, I'am pluggin leaks as fast as I can and while I'am doing that I'am not getting wiped out to bad, paying more attention to cold calling, finally got pot odds, and implied pot odds figured out and will start paying more attention to them, a lot to learn in a short time. I think when I can show a profit I will jump to the $2-$4 Limit. Found that people can be bluffed at that level if the board looks like you have a straight or a flush , feels like real poker.

Did seem like t day I just couldn't even get many decent hands to raise or even call with.
I did get PT going finally with help from PT suppor. At the $2-$4 table my VP$IP was 16%, was playing looser at the .50c-$1 tables with a VP$IP of 30%. Will have to get more proficient at using PT to plug my leaks.

Appreciate all the help musicman, I hope to eventually get to be a decent player. This game is very challenging and I like that, and with enough study, practice, and work, this game should be beatable.
User avatar
GrizRodder
 
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:14 am
Location: St. Petersburg, FL


Return to Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron