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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner! - Live Poker Forums

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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner!

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Postby RedBarracuda » Sun May 20, 2007 6:54 pm




upload your picture to one of those and then when you upload it you will get a link to it.. copy that link and paste it here. select the link when pasted and click Img button.. voila..
Image
(6:35:48 PM) giantgrwth: I once beat up an attempted murderer, 25% true story
(6:35:59 PM) hard2tel45s: boxing?
(6:36:06 PM) giantgrwth: Yea
(6:36:14 PM) hard2tel45s: sweet
(6:36:30 PM) giantgrwth: He was my best friend too, lol
(6:36:48 PM) hard2tel45s: well u were in the crazy bin bro
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Postby MTPaid » Mon May 21, 2007 10:13 pm

Yeah, that's probably the part I was missing. Just as a test let's see if this works. This is my chart for al NL50 hands where I was all-in before the river (181x). It does in fact show that I've run a little worse than should be expected with 2 large negative gaps in the middle although lately I've made up for some of it.

Image

And this is my PFR and C-bet chart which looks pretty damn good and makes me think that I'm getting away with a lot of shit at my current level or I'm doing something really right. Actually, the way it's seperated lately can be encouraging as it might mean I'm getting a better grasp on when to C-bet and when not too and how much. Or I'm just really lucky that they're folding a ton.



Image
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
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"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby RedBarracuda » Tue May 22, 2007 4:46 am

Image
(6:35:48 PM) giantgrwth: I once beat up an attempted murderer, 25% true story
(6:35:59 PM) hard2tel45s: boxing?
(6:36:06 PM) giantgrwth: Yea
(6:36:14 PM) hard2tel45s: sweet
(6:36:30 PM) giantgrwth: He was my best friend too, lol
(6:36:48 PM) hard2tel45s: well u were in the crazy bin bro
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 11:41 am

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 1:57 pm

I got to thinking that the initial graph displays all hands that I've gone all-in and not just made hands. Because of course, sometimes you push with a draw and fold equity where you don't want a call. So here is a seperate chart which shows all the times, at NL50, where I've been all-in before the river with a strong MADE hand.....Overpair, 2 pair, a set, or better. Here it shows that I've always won below what was expected, but have closed the gap lately. This results on this chart are completely due to luck I believe and would have no impact on how I played. I believe it simply shows how often I've been drawn out on, but also must include times when I've gotten it in with a very good hand, facing a better hand. It's just more for my own sanity than anything.

Image
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Danhdan » Tue May 22, 2007 3:31 pm

"Million dollar play, ten cent finish."

"My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives."

"Laugh and the world stares at you; cry, and the world stares at you."
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 5:05 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 5:13 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Danhdan » Tue May 22, 2007 6:06 pm

"Million dollar play, ten cent finish."

"My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives."

"Laugh and the world stares at you; cry, and the world stares at you."
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 7:13 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Tue May 22, 2007 8:28 pm

Pay attention, because this is the type of hand you call raises with and win tournaments.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2665631
pokenum -h kc kh - qh 3h -- 4h qs 5s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 5s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kh 727 73.43 263 26.57 0 0.00 0.734
Qh 3h 263 26.57 727 73.43 0 0.00 0.266

Because did you know that AK and AQ are the only hads people ever raise with? At least that'swhat everyone has told me after they've called my raise and pushed on the flop with hands such as 66, 44, 33, and Q3s tonight. And all have been good by the river. Sadly they've been right for the most part because I've had an abundance of AK and AQ's tonight and I haven't cashed yet in 6 MTT"s.

Note to self: Big Ace hands (AK/AQ) aren't nearly as valuable as 88 or 99 when half the table is willing to stack off with any PP.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Wed May 23, 2007 9:48 pm

First off: The season finale of "Lost" was AWESOME! from beginning to end. There'll probably be something on my blog about it tomorrow.

I did play just a little bit of poker today too. I didn't even realize that by the time I got done with the MTT's yesterday I had put in over 8 hours straight. I bubbled 3, cashed in the last one, almost went very deep, but ony ended up tripling my buy-in which left me down about $20 for the day.

I played a little bit today, very little and there were only 2 key hands.

Hand 1: Opponent had only been around a couple of orbits, but I had only raised 2x since he'd been there and BOTH times, he 3-bet right behind me.

I'm MP2 with $50 to start [Ah][7h]
He's CO with $43

Folded to me, I raise to $2, CO re-raises to $6. Mind you again that this is the 2nd consecutive time that he'd done this so I decided to call and see a flop this time.

[Kc][5h][Th] Pot $12.75

I know exactly what I'm doing here. I check, he bets $8. I'm ALL-IN. If he has AA or KK I'm in trouble, but I doubt he's pot betting KK like that. So if he has AA I've still got 9 outs and worse that happens is that the rest of the table sees me push on a flush draw and hopefully notes it. If he has AK he has a decision to make and it's the same thing, 9 outs, but with SOME fold equity. If it's anything less (cept TT) I have fold equity + 12 outs.

Don't know cause he folded.

Hand 2: Ironically the last hand I played today.
UTG w/ $54.40 [As][Ad]

I limp, UTG+1 is all-in for $10.90 (THANK YOU), SB calls $10.90 and has me covered (DOUBLE THANK YOU). I push and SB time out. Later says he folded QQ.

UTG+1 shows [Tc][Th] Pot = $33.20
So in Full Tilt's sick, warped sense of humor
[Td][3s][4h]...................[Ah].............[Jh]


By the way. I'm now at 19,442 hands at NL50 and up to +6.09 BB/100 which is the highest I've ever been. Furthermore, since the date that I officially declared my disgusting run over at NL cash games (4/11) I've gone 5,351 at +20.64 BB/100 which may not be sustainable, but I'm sure as hell gonna try.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Thu May 24, 2007 6:23 pm

Everyone was 3-bet happy today from the blinds. It's funny that everyone who wants to be all hyper-aggressive with the 3-bets every other hand is terrified of the min-raise. It's not like he wasn't begging me to take it away on the flop with that bet.

[Ac][Jd] MP2 - both of us are full stacks.
I open for $2, BB re-raises to $6. Been happening quite a bit today so I called. I wanted to see how he would follow up because none of the 3-bets had been challenged today.

[Qs][3h][4d] Pot $12.25
BB bets $6 - Hey, isn't that the same as your PFR?
Ok, how's about this, I'll make it $12.
BB: "Oh shit! He did the min-raise. I fold, I fold."
LOLOL

This hand had me thinking after the session. I think calling may have been just right if I was sure I could stack him, which I would have, but only because SB called.

All 3 have full stacks except SB who has $41 to start.
I have {Ks][Js] UTG+1 and limp. CO, Button, SB limp as well. 5 to the flop.
[Qs][7h][9c] Pot $2.50
I have the gutshot to the nuts here, but the pot wasn't raised preflop so I'm not likely to get much action and lean towards a fold if anyone bets.

Checked around to Button who bets $2, SB calls $2, BB folds.
Now I'm getting 3-1 immediately and it looks like a couple of people might be interested so I make a marginal call
BUT CO now check-raises to $8, Button folds, but SB call $6 more.
It's $6 for me to call into a $22.50 pot. About 3.5-1 odds.
SB has $33 left.
I would have $42 if I called and CO has me covered.

It was soo close, but I called. I missed the turn (I count the [Jc] as a miss), but apparently that was just what SB wanted as he c/r'ed all-in with [Ts][8d] for the straight. I had one of his outs and he had one of mine. CO called with a set of 7's.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Fri May 25, 2007 6:25 pm

The difference between up $90 and a break-even session:

It's not even the hand that bothers me because I was a dog, although I thought with a some FE and possibly the best hand and a TON of outs.
But opponent was of course a nut job. 50/13/33 over 40 hands but up 2 stacks. They had been involved in last 4 hands.
Hand 1: PFR 88, flopped top set, picked up a stack
Hand 2: PFR 22, flopped bottom set, no action on flop, showed set
Hand 3: Called PFR, called [9c][9s][Ts] flop, pot bet turn blank, raiser folded, showed [Qc][4c] for the bluff.
Hand 4: 7 handed I'm SB with $45.65 [Ks][Qs]
50/13 is UTG+1 and raises to $1.75, Button calls, I call
[Kc][4s][5s] Pot $5.75
I check, UTG+1 bets pot, Button folds, I c/r all-in for $43.70 total.
Only 1 hand I don't want to see. UTG+1 calls and shows me that hand [As][Kh].
Naturally that's the only hand that someone playing 50% of their hands could have against me there. Even had one of my flush outs so I'm down to 11 outs and 40% dog.
[Ac] on the turn and now I only have 8 outs.
[8c] on the river.

Ass kicked by a maniac again.

Fortunately, I kicked the crap out of a bunch of TAG's on 3 other tables and finished just about even.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Fri May 25, 2007 7:22 pm

Christ on a pony I just watched the last Sopranos episode...

B

A

L

L

S...
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