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Set with a flush on board facing allin - made a big mistake? - Live Poker Forums

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Set with a flush on board facing allin - made a big mistake?

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Set with a flush on board facing allin - made a big mistake?

Postby tetsuo » Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:28 pm

Just played this at Stars $50, so info to the best of my recollection rather than a HH.

In EP with [Td][Th]. I limp and so do another 5 or 6.

Flop [4c][Ac][Tc].

Considering my position, that flop and the crowd behind me, I check.

The pot is about $3.50. I have everyone covered with $80.

It's checked around to the cutoff, who goes all in for $11 odd. The button calls and has another $11 remaining.

Now at this point I should have stopped to think.

I'm getting more than 2:1 on my money and I'm 2:1 to improve to a house by the showdown. If I call and he puts his last $11 in on the turn and I haven't improved, I'm still getting 4:1 pot odds with 10 outs (approx 22%).

It would have been +EV to call, no? Stupid mistake.

I fold as has/does everyone else. Turn and river [3c][3h]. Of course.

[Qc] high flush wins. Don't know what the other dude had yet.

<sound of tetsuo slapping his forehead repeatedly against the table>

..or is the draw too slim for most folks?
Last edited by tetsuo on Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Rhound50 » Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:51 pm

I actually dont agree with you here, you have to look at that call like your calling $22, there is no way to think that the guy with $11 left is going to fold. The pot is almost $40, he is going to go all in on the turn period, most likely that call is he made the flush and wanted you to call also. With that said you are basicly calling $22 of your money to win $36.50 from your opponants. Assuming that they both have a flush you are about 2:1 behind and you are almost getting odds to call but still a borderline EV play, but the real problem comes if one has the lfush and the other doesn't. If one player has the flush and the other has top and bottom pair or a set of 4's both ways you have lost 3 important outs and are now 3:1 behind and are definatly not getting odds to call. Even if one is playing AK or AQ it still hurts you by killing one of your outs. You only had $.50 investing get out and wait to bust the fish another hand.
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Postby Nortonesque » Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:53 pm

You're getting 2-1 on the next card, though, not the river, so you can't call this if you think you're up against a flush. If the button was all in for $11 too, and no one else was left to act, then it may have been correct to call.
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Postby tetsuo » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:06 pm

Right. Yes I did definitely think I was up against one or two flushes.

Thanks for the advice, guys.

I think it was a 'thin one' and you're right - there are easier ways to bust people.. :-)

But this makes me think of another issue.

Say you are facing a single all-in headsup and you are getting _exactly_ the pot odds to call.

Do you call? I realize now it's probably a breakeven EV if there's no more money left to bet..

I hadn't for some reason considered this before. Quite a few times I have made this kind of call and now I'm thinking I should avoid it.

Maybe there should be some kind of minimum % EV margin to give yourself before making a call?
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:34 pm

Im going to disagree and say Im going all in. No way the first guy has a flush. Hes not betting $11 into a $3.50 pot with a flopped flush. He has something like [Ah][Jc]
The second guy could have a flush but could just as easily have AT or 44 or be a complete moron and have [Kc][Ts]. Hes playing a short stack which makes me suspicious of him already.

IF the second guy has a flush, and its a big if in my opinion, you are still risking $22 to win $37 which is close to correct odds.
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Postby Nortonesque » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:39 pm

On the other hand, if you think the button's chasing with a high club, the right thing might be to put him in. Then you've got a $22 side pot where you're the favorite, and you have the right odds in the main pot.

EDIT: Damn, I'm just a few minutes too slow in this thread. ;)
Last edited by Nortonesque on Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby kennyg » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:40 pm

I agree with Iceman.... I think you guys are giving your opponents too much respect. You've seen a bet and a call and now you're postive that you have to beat a flush? I've seen too many morons in my lifetime to fold that set. I think it's 75/25 you are winning the hand on the flop. And if you fall into that 25 percent and are losing...you still have outs.
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Postby tetsuo » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:58 pm

My instinct (after the fact) was that I should have called, based on the pot odds, despite being convinced of the flush.

So is it safe to say that between you, you agree that

1) It's a thin EV call if the dude does have a flush, and if his hand had have been face up and I could've seen a flush, I would be better not calling

2) I am giving my opponents a bit too much respect when holding such a strong hand by putting them on 'my worst nightmare' hand. Weak?

I think I was put off-balance in the first place by having such an awful flop with so many others in the pot.

To rewind somewhat, should I have bet out with 6 behind me?
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Postby briachek » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:02 pm

I agree with Ice. The pot is $3.50 and the guy goes in for $11. If he really had the flush, he is overbetting the pot and scaring people away. I would think if the second guy had the flush, he might raise all in for his last $11 but since he just called, I would think he either has the nut flush and wants to induce callers or is drawing for it. I would be inclined to go all in thinking I'm at worst against one flush but still have outs to win.
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Postby iceman5 » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:02 pm

I think its a hand to play several ways. I dont think its getting checked around so I personally would rather check and see what happens. I would be looking to check raise though. In this case you didnt get the chance, but most times someone will bet pto and maybe there will be one call....then you pounce and blast them and make them pay to play their lone high club.
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Postby tetsuo » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:19 pm

So there's just one thing I'd like to clarify.

I've been playing pot odds quite exactly for a while now (on stuff like flush draws where the implied odds aren't great because of the obviousness).

So if a pot is $16 and I'm headsup drawing to the nuts but with no other outs or possibility of winning the pot (and notwithstanding the chance of a house being made by someone with a set) and it's $4 to me (4:1, giving me next card flush odds) should I call every time if this situation were to repeat itself into infinity?

This thread has got me thinking that making *near exact* pot odds are at best breakeven EV and to be avoided.
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Postby Nortonesque » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:44 pm

A flush draw is just slightly worse than 4:1, so you wouldn't want to do this an infinite number of times if you couldn't win any more money. But if you can win more money, then you'd always call. The implied odds aren't great for a flush, but they're still there -- some people will still pay you off. If you can estimate how much your opponent will pay, then you can establish a cutoff for calling. Against a random opponent, I'd definitely take 4:1.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Dec 17, 2004 10:30 am

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